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Sylvia的學(xué)習(xí)筆記_2
Sylvia @ 2005-02-27 16:32

終于開始我的L2之旅了,希望還來得及。

今天說說關(guān)于所得稅的理解和一些細(xì)節(jié)。

1.Income tax expense = Taxes payable + Deferred income tax expense, 這右邊第二項正的就是deferred tax liability,負(fù)的就是deferred tax asset。這個公式簡單理解成所得稅費用就包括實際交稅(cash item)和應(yīng)該補交或可以抵扣的那部分稅(non-cash item)。這也表明,deferred tax asset/liability這兩個科目的產(chǎn)生都是以difference will reverse in future years為前提的。

2.Deferred tax liability之所以產(chǎn)生,是因為今年實際交稅少了,以后還是要補的,所以可簡單理解成負(fù)債。也就是說taxes payable < income tax expense, ie. Taxable income < pretax income. Deferred tax asset相反的產(chǎn)生過程,無需多講。但它有valuation allowance,也是一個備抵項目,但需要記住的是valuation allowance applies exclusively to deferred tax asset。也是,出于謹(jǐn)慎性原則,對于資產(chǎn)才要備抵一下,負(fù)債從來不算這個的。另外,涉及到備抵賬戶的,往往是管理層操縱業(yè)績的一種手段,這種職業(yè)敏感性是要不斷加強的。比如allowance就會增加tax expense, 那相應(yīng)凈利潤就會減少。

3.Deferred tax liability/asset的計算:列出兩張表,分別based on tax return和financial reporting,然后兩相比較,很容易得出。

4.Liability method和Deferred method的最大區(qū)別:the treatment of changes in tax rates. The deferred method is unaffected by changes in tax rates while the liability method adjusts deferred assets and liabilities to reflect the new tax rates.

5.Change in tax rates: 在Liability method方法之下,稅率變動,賬面上的deferred asset/ability也要revalue來反映今后它們reverse的當(dāng)前價值。假設(shè)稅率上升,那么deferred liability就會增加今年的income tax expense,這會使得凈利潤和股東權(quán)益都下降;deferred asset的作用剛好相反。由于一般而言,都是deferred liability > deferred asset,所以通常,稅率上升的總體結(jié)果表現(xiàn)就是cause net income and stockholder’s equity to decline.

6.Deferred tax liability應(yīng)該被當(dāng)作一項負(fù)債還是權(quán)益?這在進(jìn)行財務(wù)分析時尤需分清。In many cases, it may be unlikely that deferred tax liabilities will be paid. For example, if a company has deferred tax liabilities occurring, solely because of the use of accelerated depreciation for tax purposes and the company’s capital expenditures are expected to continue to grow in the foreseeable future, the deferred tax liability will not reverse and should be considered as equity. However, if growth is expected to stop or slow considerably, the liability will reverse and it should be considered as a true liability. 也就是說,關(guān)鍵在于看這個遞延負(fù)債究竟有無可能reverse!如果它將無限期的遞延下去,那么把它看作權(quán)益更加合適。每每看到類似跟財務(wù)分析直接相關(guān)的小細(xì)節(jié),還是由衷的開心,難說以后哪天就在研究報告中show一下呢,不過需要先確認(rèn)一下國內(nèi)是否也是如此操作呵。原來,學(xué)習(xí)會計也是有樂趣的,我的問題就是本科的那幫老師,以至于讓我對專業(yè)完全喪失了興趣。我無意說出任何刻薄的話,但是真的覺得為人師如此,無論是學(xué)識還是做人,都是應(yīng)該慚愧的。當(dāng)然,我自己也應(yīng)該慚愧,算了算了,現(xiàn)在辛苦些重新學(xué)起吧,今年把CPA的會計也報了,融會貫通加深印象。扯遠(yuǎn)了,還是回到上面這個問題。有時,如果這個non-reversal是可以肯定的話,那索性就把deferred tax liability記入stockholders’ equity,這樣做的后果就是debt-to-equity ratio減小,有時這個減幅還是挺大的呢。Sometimes, instead of reclassifying deferred liabilities as stockholders’ equity, the analyst might just ignore deferred taxes altogether. This is done if non-reversal is uncertain or financial statement depreciation is deemed inadequate and it is therefore difficult to justify an increase in stockholders’ equity. Some creditors, notably banks, simply ignore deferred taxes. 所以說,在這個問題上,分析師必需case-by-case。

7.Temporary difference: The differences between tax and financial reporting that will reverse in the future and will affect taxable income when they reverse。比如兩種記賬分別采用不同的折舊計提方法,但這兩者的差別會隨著該資產(chǎn)的消亡而消失。(Each individual depreciation for an existing asset will reverse over the course of the life of that asset, that is why it is considered a temporary difference and creates a deferred tax liability.) 假設(shè)交稅是以DDB計提方法,報表是以直線計提法,如果公司快速發(fā)展,不斷購買新的固定資產(chǎn),那么這兩者的差距就會一直延續(xù)下去,而deferred tas/liability的reversal也將被無限推遲。

Permanent difference: the differences between tax and financial reporting that are not expected to reverse in the future. 比如warranty expenses, tax-loss carry forwards. 永久性差異無所謂推遲了,壓根不會reverse的。

如果光是永久性差異的話,tax expense就是tax payable, 兩者之所以有差別,都是因為暫時性差異。因此也看出,deferred asset/liability都只跟暫時性差異有關(guān)。

8.遞延稅款分析時最好用計算PV: 即便deferred asset/liability已經(jīng)確定會reverse, because the payments may occur far into the future, an analyst should revalue the liability or asset at its present value. The difference between the stated value and the present value of deferred taxes should be treated as equity. 最后這句話尤為希奇,記一下。

9.Indefinite Reversals: 有時候difference究竟會不會reverse不那么容易確定。The most common of these differences is the undistributed earnings of unconsolidated subsidiaries or joint ventures. If income is earned but not distributed back to the parent company in the form of dividends, the income will be reflected on the income statement as pretax income but will not appear on the tax return. The parent may consider this income to be permanently reinvested in the subsidiary. In that case, the difference will never be reversed. The company can treat this difference as permanent if the parent controls the subsidiary or joint venture. 有關(guān)合并報表的東西,以后再研究吧。

以上是L1的內(nèi)容,毫無印象,可見當(dāng)時準(zhǔn)備時基本都沒看,幸好蒙過了?,F(xiàn)在要認(rèn)真了。

1.Tax loss carryforward: the current net taxable loss that is used to reduce taxable income (thus, taxes payable) in future years. If future taxable income is assured, the loss carryforward is an asset. However, if future income is not assured, the loss carryforward is reduced by a valuation allowance.

2.Deferred liability/asset的產(chǎn)生一級里邊都有講過,Income tax disclosures需要多看幾遍,factors influencing deferred taxes是一級的深化。看來重讀一級是非常必要的,否則不知其所云的感覺真是痛苦。再次提到:the analyst’s goal is to determine whether the deferrals are appropriately classified as assets and liabilities on the balance sheet. This determination is based on whether the deferred assets and liabilities are actually expected to reverse in the future. 教程安排還是挺不錯的,先是告訴你簡單的處理,隨后是復(fù)習(xí)、補充、深化。這種方式對于我這種天資一般的人來說還是頗為管用的。我喜歡每次懂多一點的欣喜,很有層次感的收獲。二級里邊把處理方式歸納了一下:If deferred tax assets or liabilities are expected to reverse in the future, they are best classified as assets or liabilities respectively. 調(diào)整為現(xiàn)值的要求依然跟一級一樣, Indefinite reversal那段話原封不動再次提起。If reversal is not expected, deferred tax assets are reduced by increasing the valuation allowance; deferred tax liabilities are removed from the balance sheet and the equity account is increased by the amount of the eliminated liability. 關(guān)于稅率變動和公司持續(xù)購買固定資產(chǎn)導(dǎo)致無限推遲reverse等等內(nèi)容跟一級一模一樣。唯一增加的內(nèi)容是Nonrucurring items對遞延稅項的影像。

3.Deferred liability對財務(wù)報表的影響:首先依然要解決項目性質(zhì)歸屬問題,是負(fù)債還是權(quán)益?也就是上面的第6點。歸納起來就是這樣三種情形:A. 如果這個Def. L不可能reverse的話(主要是因為固定資產(chǎn)的持續(xù)投入),就把它視為權(quán)益好了;B. 但是哪天公司放慢了投資,這個Def. L最終會reverse,那就應(yīng)該把它視作真正的負(fù)債。C. 如果對于reversal的可能性根本就不清楚,或者分析師認(rèn)為financial statement提的折舊不夠,那他最好選擇索性忽略這個Def. L。

新內(nèi)容是:假設(shè)reversal會發(fā)生,那么將來必然有一筆現(xiàn)金流出,
reduction in future cash flow = deferred tax expense / statutory tax rate
taxable income = pretax income – deferred tax expense / statutory tax rate
Deferred asset對財務(wù)報表的影響:基本上跟Def. L的作用相反,如果分析師認(rèn)為這個Def. A不可能reverse的話,那他應(yīng)該同時減少以下科目: Deferred asset (net of the valuation allowance)、Income、Stockholders’ equity.
increase in future cash flow = deferred tax expense / statutory tax rate
taxable income = pretax income + deferred tax expense / statutory tax rate

4. PV: The difference between the stated value and the present value of deferred taxes should be treated as equity. 上面沒懂的這句話L2通過一個例子讓我明白了,原因就在于資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表右邊的負(fù)債+權(quán)益并不因為遞延負(fù)債的reclassification而增加/減少,因為資產(chǎn)是一定的。那遞延負(fù)債PV與賬面價值的差額,只能加到權(quán)益里邊去了。這些工作主要是分析師在進(jìn)行financial ratio計算是做的調(diào)整。至于考試中,估計會讓你分別計算unadjusted和adjusted的debt-to-equity ratio. 一般來說,如果把Def. L歸為權(quán)益的話,負(fù)債率會降低,這個不難理解,負(fù)債減少了。

5.  Reconciliation between the Effective and Statutory Tax Rates: 這個好煩,以前的報表分析中基本上稅都是跳著看的,因為不懂?,F(xiàn)在看了還是沒有感性認(rèn)識,再說了。
a)  Effective tax rate = income tax expense / pretax income
b)  When estimating future earnings and cash flows, the analyst should understand each element of the reconciliation, including its relative impacts, how each has changed with time, and how each is likely to change in the future. 這西往往是需要分析師從企業(yè)獲取更多信息的,可當(dāng)作調(diào)研的一部份。
c)  In analyzing trends in tax rates, it is important to only include reconciliation items that are continuous in natures rather than those that are sporadic. 持續(xù)的有:different rates in different countries, tax-exempt income, non-deductible expense. 零散的有:the occurrence of large dollar amounts of asset sales, tax holiday savings.

計算中的一些小結(jié):1)Def. Asset和Def. Liability是要分開考慮計算的,這個沒問題,但在具體算區(qū)別的正負(fù)時,為了避免弄錯,不要記公式了,還是從計提的后果分析,看其對Def. Asset和Def. Liability的影響是增加還是減少。

所得稅就算告一段落吧,依舊膚淺的很,想來CPA肯定繁瑣的要命。


 
Sylvia @ 2004-12-23 00:46

盈利預(yù)測是我做這個模型時的一個瓶頸,其實大致怎么做是清楚的,但真正需要把三張表的每個科目一項一項在用excel中用公式體現(xiàn)出來的時候,才發(fā)覺預(yù)測是件多么不確定的事情??!而我天生就是討厭不確定性的人,對于每一項都希望找到一個夠有說服力的依據(jù)來支持我對未來的判斷,但很多根本就是mission impossible,比如一些拍腦袋科目,你憑什么給它5%而不是10%的增長率?幸虧,我剛剛說的這些純粹自己瞎算的科目往往是比較trivial的,而對于主營業(yè)務(wù)增長率之類我們則會謹(jǐn)慎得多,畢竟做盈利預(yù)測sales是最重要也是最根本的,很多預(yù)測方法壓根就是拿其他科目同sales的歷史比例關(guān)系來推算今后幾年的數(shù)據(jù)的。

對于做盈利預(yù)測的科學(xué)方法,我也請教了不少同學(xué),基本上都是一樣的回答:先預(yù)測收入,比例法??晌倚枰恍└泳唧w的說法,但愿在今后可以慢慢獲取。感覺做corporate finance還蠻有意思的。

這里介紹的可能叫做整體性預(yù)測法吧(a comprehensive approach),就是說對三張表同時預(yù)測,過于預(yù)測sales了,asset turnover一般是預(yù)計保持當(dāng)前水平,而working capital 和 investment in plant跟企業(yè)的growth關(guān)系更為密切。從理論上來說,我們有可能直接預(yù)測現(xiàn)金流量表,但多數(shù)情況下,更普遍的做法是先把IS和BS預(yù)測完了,然后再得出。

Sales/Earnings: 都遵循random walk,所以最好的分析點就是預(yù)測前一年的數(shù)據(jù),t+1年的數(shù)據(jù)無非就是t年的數(shù)據(jù)再加上一個drift。研究數(shù)據(jù)表明:專家盈利預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確程度僅比純粹的random walk forecast 高出22個百分點!太受打擊了。

ROE: 跟上面兩個可有所不同啦??吹揭粋€挺有意思的說法—ROE “mean reverting”現(xiàn)象,頭次聽說,還用經(jīng)濟理論給解釋了:The tendency of high ROEs to fall is a reflection of high profitability attracting competition. The tendency of low ROEs to rise reflects the mobility of capital away from unproductive ventures and toward more profitable ones. (美國公司的ROE一般在10-14)

另外,我們知道ROE = Profit margin × Asset turnover× Adjusted leverage
Asset turnover tends to be rather stable, in part because it is so much a function of the technology of an industry. Leverage also tends to be stable, simply because management policies on capital structure aren’t often changed. Profit margins stand out as the most variable component of ROE.
如此說來,ROE有很大變動的話,只能把原因歸為profit margin啦,同時與ROE保持一致,profit margin也有一個回歸正常水平的趨勢。

盈利預(yù)測通常首先從未來幾年的銷售預(yù)測開始,其次是計劃為達(dá)到這個銷售目標(biāo)所需的資產(chǎn),然后計劃融資方案,接著就可以預(yù)測利潤表和資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表,并對盈利、股利和其他一些關(guān)鍵的財務(wù)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行預(yù)測。下面就正式開始預(yù)測了:
*******************************************************************************
Financial Forecasting基本步驟:(Financial Planning的著眼點是企業(yè)的CFO,而分析師的盈利預(yù)測著重點有所不同,先說估值里邊需要用的盈利預(yù)測)
(1) Sales Forecast
(2) Expenses and Earnings Forecast
(3) Forecast of IS
(4) Forecast of BS
(5) Forecast of CF
(6) Sensitivity of Analysis

1] 銷售收入的預(yù)測是盈利預(yù)測的起點,最簡單的就是直接給出一個sales growth,負(fù)責(zé)一些的話就需要公司擴張形勢進(jìn)行分析,書中舉了零售企業(yè)的例子,給我寫報告提供了一個很好的思路,前面寫600825的時候?qū)τ谑杖朐鲩L根本無從解決。For a large retail firm, a sales forecast would normally consider the prior year’s sales, increases due purely to expansion of the number of retail outlets, and “comparable store growth,” which captures growth in sales in already existing stores. 預(yù)測銷售增長率需要考慮諸如以下因素:customer acceptance of new product lines, marketing plans, changes in pricing strategies, competitors’ behavior, and the expected state of the economy. 另外也提到了,在歷史數(shù)據(jù)極度缺乏的情況下,就通過市場滲透率來預(yù)測,這個應(yīng)該不在當(dāng)前考慮范圍之內(nèi)了。前面的方法是把企業(yè)視作一個整體增長,更細(xì)致的預(yù)測收入的方法是product-by-product。無論哪種,我們在預(yù)測sales growth的時候,要注意跟行業(yè)水平進(jìn)行比較,看企業(yè)是否超越這個水平,但也要避免太離譜的增長率。

2] 費用最好是逐一進(jìn)行預(yù)測。但有些費用是跟收入密切相關(guān)以因而可以根據(jù)其在收入中的占比給出(Percentage-of-Sales Approach),比如:COGS, SGA, R&D(這個相對來說不是跟當(dāng)前收入關(guān)系非常密切,但也可以粗略用比例預(yù)測) 有了這個作為基礎(chǔ),就可以預(yù)測IS了。

3] 利潤表相對來說還是比較容易預(yù)測的,具體每個項目的預(yù)測依據(jù)如下:
銷售收入——根據(jù)分析得出的增長率計算(這是最關(guān)鍵最根本的第一步?。?
成本、經(jīng)營費用、管理費用——用收入占比法預(yù)測
財務(wù)費用——driven by debt levels and interest rates,根據(jù)短期借款和長期借款分別計算
折舊——should be consistent with the firm’s depreciation policy
Tax Provision——driven by pretax income and factors that have a permanent impact on tax payments (such as tax rates applicable to certain foreign subsidiaries)
利潤表預(yù)測完成后,增加的留存收益也就出來了(NI-Div.),這部分增加代表了企業(yè)的經(jīng)營投資增量(可內(nèi)部解決的資金),這對后面決定融資與否非常重要,直接影響資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的預(yù)測。
另外,少數(shù)股東權(quán)益反映除母公司以外的其他投資者在子公司中的權(quán)益,表示小股東在子公司所有者權(quán)益中所擁有的份額。這個比較難預(yù)測,需要根據(jù)企業(yè)的盈利前景分析。


4] 資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的預(yù)測是最麻煩的,因為科目實在太多了,而且很多是跟收入無關(guān),而是取決于企業(yè)的資本結(jié)構(gòu)和股利政策的。下面逐一分析:
與Sales相關(guān)科目:operating working capital accounts and plant assets,而長期負(fù)債和普通股不會隨銷售額的增加而增加,而是有賴于以后的融資決策,所以,進(jìn)行初步預(yù)測時,要假設(shè)這些賬目保持不變。

資產(chǎn)總量——根據(jù)銷售收入與資產(chǎn)的關(guān)系,可以預(yù)測所需資產(chǎn)總量,因為上面說了資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率Sales/Assets一般是保持不變的。另外,要提高銷售,資產(chǎn)的各個項目也要相應(yīng)增加。但應(yīng)付、應(yīng)收除了與收入保持一定比例增長來進(jìn)行預(yù)測,更精細(xì)的做法可以進(jìn)行賬齡分析,存貨也是(應(yīng)付賬款、存貨周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)與成本相關(guān),應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)與收入相關(guān))。

流動資產(chǎn)相對而言要容易把握一些,非流動資產(chǎn)的預(yù)測則更多是通過分析并且參照前一年的數(shù)據(jù)。
長期投資項目:長期股權(quán)投資和長期債權(quán)投資(待補充)
固定資產(chǎn)項目:固定資產(chǎn)原值的增加與capital expenditure有關(guān),累計折舊=原值+今年計提折舊(折舊需要先預(yù)測,反正后面CF表也需要用的),固定資產(chǎn)減值準(zhǔn)備一般為0,在建工程視具體投資項目而定。
無形資產(chǎn)項目:
Def.tax——用收入占比法預(yù)測。

負(fù)債——只要企業(yè)的capital structure不變的話,其與收入的比基本上保持不變。(這部分因為牽涉到融資,所以更多是在作為企業(yè)內(nèi)部的financial planning,以后再詳細(xì)分析,這里暫且假設(shè)D/E保持一個常數(shù)了)

所有者權(quán)益——股東權(quán)益 = 年初的股東權(quán)益 + 新股發(fā)行 + 當(dāng)年的留存收益增加額(這個在IS中給出:NI - Div)

5] 現(xiàn)金流量表的預(yù)測采用間接法:有了上面3、4的基礎(chǔ),基本上就可以推導(dǎo)出IS了,這里補充一下Capital Expenditure的預(yù)測:CE are difficult to forecast without some guidance from management, in the absence of enough information, a good rule of thumb is to assume that the ratio of pant to sales will remain relatively stable, and that capital expenditures will be whatever amount is needed to maintain that ratio.也就是說,假設(shè)固定資產(chǎn)/資產(chǎn)的比例保持不變,據(jù)此來預(yù)測需要的在固定資產(chǎn)方面的投資。另外,折舊——固定資產(chǎn)原值*綜合折舊率(企業(yè)的折舊政策給出,或可通過歷史數(shù)據(jù)分析得出)


預(yù)測完了現(xiàn)金流量表,就可以得出自由現(xiàn)金流了,這里取
FCFF = NI + NCC + Int*(1-T) – FCInv - WCInv
至于貼現(xiàn),下面一章專門講DCF.


 
Sylvia @ 2004-12-23 00:44

其重要性不必說啦,財務(wù)分析做精了,去哪里做都沒問題了。兩大部分:財務(wù)比列分析,現(xiàn)金流分析。

Ratio Analysis 等CFA看到這塊的時候再好好學(xué)習(xí)吧,現(xiàn)在重點不在此。

Cash Flow Analysis
這段時間在做估值模型,所以現(xiàn)金流接觸比較多,掌握三大點吧:1、CFO\CFI\CFF的分類,2、編制現(xiàn)金流量法的兩種方法:直接法和間接法,3、自由現(xiàn)金流。說明一下:中國要求用直接法編制現(xiàn)金流量表,但附注中要有間接法的編制。而美國只有少數(shù)企業(yè)才會用直接法,而且會計準(zhǔn)則規(guī)定使用直接法編制的那些企業(yè)同時也要準(zhǔn)備間接法的現(xiàn)金流量表。

1) 企業(yè)的CFO是正的還是負(fù)的?負(fù)的話,是因為企業(yè)處于高速發(fā)展階段,還是經(jīng)營出現(xiàn)了問題,又或者他們在運營資本管理上存在問題?
2) 就CFO來看,企業(yè)短期的償債能力如何?
3) 企業(yè)在持續(xù)性發(fā)展方面投入了多少資金?這些投入跟企業(yè)長期的經(jīng)營戰(zhàn)略是否吻合?是內(nèi)部資金還是外部融資?
4) FCF有沒?這種趨勢能否保持?管理層對FCF是如何安排的?
5) 企業(yè)支付紅利需要靠外部融資嗎,該企業(yè)的股利政策是否穩(wěn)定?
6) 企業(yè)采用哪種融資方式?這種方式是否適合企業(yè)整體的經(jīng)營風(fēng)險?
7) 凈利潤與CFO差別如何,原因?

另外,利息費用和利息收入能否算在CFO中是個問題,嚴(yán)格來說,這兩項跟經(jīng)營活動沒有太大聯(lián)系(interest expense is a function of financial leverage, and interest income is derived from financial assets rather than operating assets),所以把它們從CFO中剔除也許能更準(zhǔn)確地描述一個企業(yè)的經(jīng)營活動現(xiàn)金流。


 
Sylvia @ 2004-12-23 00:41

做完consultant,現(xiàn)在我們轉(zhuǎn)行做audit:

之所以要進(jìn)行會計分析,是因為信息不對稱導(dǎo)致一開始我們就處在了劣勢;然而作為信息的接受者,我們不可能天真的相信別人提供的那些冠冕堂皇的數(shù)據(jù),所以進(jìn)行會計分析主要有兩點作用:一是通過對企業(yè)財務(wù)報表的閱讀,看看這個公司采用的會計政策及其對未知事件的保守程度,從而對其會計處理的合理性形成一個初步的判斷;二是我們可以通過分析還原(undo)一些會計上的歪曲來進(jìn)一步提高報表的質(zhì)量。In summary, the purpose of accounting analysis is to evaluate the degree to which a firm’s accounting captures the underlying business reality.

Step 1: Identify key accounting policies 抓住影響該企業(yè)盈利最重要的因素,以及和此因素相關(guān)的會計處理手段,由此來判斷一個企業(yè)的會計風(fēng)險。
Step 2: Assess accounting flexibility 有些事項會計準(zhǔn)則是有明確規(guī)定如何處理的,沒有余地去在這些問題上面做手腳(比如R&D費用的處理),因為“原則化”了,所以這些相對不含水分的東西對于我們來說反倒沒什么意義;所以我們需要關(guān)注的是那些比較靈活的事項,比如:折舊方法的選擇、存貨計價的選擇(LIFO, FIFO or Average cost)。
Step 3: Evaluate accounting strategy 這塊我們需要關(guān)注幾點:這個企業(yè)的accounting strategy與整個行業(yè)相比如何,如果差別很大的化,是因為它特別的競爭策略還是其他什么原因?管理層是否具備歪曲盈利水平的動因?企業(yè)有沒有對其會計策略做了大的變動?企業(yè)目前采取的會計策略和預(yù)測在過去幾年是否客觀還是有很大出入?企業(yè)有沒有通過資本運作方式來獲得他們期望的一些會計數(shù)據(jù)?
Step 4: Evaluate the quality of disclosure 看一個企業(yè)的透明度了,舉個典型例子:如果企業(yè)的費用確認(rèn)方式和行業(yè)通用方法不一樣,他們會不會在報表腳注中給予解釋。另外,企業(yè)與投資者之間的關(guān)系如何。
Step 5: Identify potential red flags 這個話題太大了,慢慢總結(jié)吧。Anyway, it’s best to use the red flag analysis as a starting point for further probing, not as an end point in itself.
Step 6: Undo accounting distortions 利用現(xiàn)金流量表與附注


 
Sylvia @ 2004-12-21 12:13

會計學(xué)得太糟糕了,以至于現(xiàn)在老被一些細(xì)節(jié)困擾。在近來這個重新學(xué)習(xí)DCF進(jìn)行公司估值的過程中,我發(fā)現(xiàn)很多公式中的Tax很搞。


計算FCF的公式雖然換湯不換藥,但沒有徹底搞清每個零部件之間關(guān)系的情況下,還是讓人覺得挺煩的,看過最精簡的一個是這樣的:FCF = NOPAT— Net Investment in operating assets, 不錯不錯,一個NOPAT一下合并了好多項。(參考中文第十章:企業(yè)價值評估,實體現(xiàn)金流量=息前稅后利潤-凈投資)

但我一直不很懂這么一個Net Operating Profit After Tax是如何被創(chuàng)造出來的,因為它并不是在利潤表可以現(xiàn)成數(shù)據(jù)表現(xiàn)出來的,當(dāng)然它在計算EVA時功不可沒,現(xiàn)在似乎有所感悟:之所以要計算這個NOPAT,是因為在給公司估值時,我們關(guān)心的只是經(jīng)營活動,所以稅收我們也只考慮經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生收益部分所需繳稅,至于非經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生稅收跟企業(yè)持久的發(fā)展是沒有必然聯(lián)系的,所以不予考慮。因此便有了這么一個公式:NOPAT = Operating Profit - Taxes on Operating Profit,用EBIT來簡單等價Operating Profit的話,就得到NOPAT = EBIT*(1-tax rate),
這還不夠準(zhǔn)確,因為還有遞延稅款等在稅上面的影響。所以精確的說法應(yīng)該是:If OP=EBIT, NOPAT = EBIT*(1-t) + change in deferred taxes.

首先值得高興的是,今天糾正了一個小錯誤,根本來說,Operating Income/Profit ≠ EBIT
Operating income is sales minus COGS, SGA and depreciation. This sounds like EBIT but isn't always EBIT: companies often include nonoperating income in EBIT. 看一下間接計算EBIT的公式就清楚了:
EBIT = 銷售收入-成本-營業(yè)費用-管理費用+營業(yè)外收支凈額+投資凈收益,而確切定義的OP是不包括最后兩項的,這就是兩者的差別所在。也就是說OP=EBIT- nonoperating income當(dāng)然,我們常常可以看到把EBIT和OP近似處理的情形,但是定義上一定要搞清!另外,我也知道為什么一直處于混沌狀態(tài)的原因了,因為西方報表自上而下讀下來,看起來似乎OP就是EBIT嘛,但這只是簡化了的報表,由此也得到一個教訓(xùn):學(xué)東西還是一步到位,從最復(fù)雜的看起,這樣起碼不會犯以偏概全的錯誤了。

GROSS SALES
– (SALES) DISCOUNTS, RETURNS, AND ALLOWANCES
= NET SALES

– COST OF GOODS SOLD
= GROSS PROFIT or "GROSS MARGIN"

- OPERATING EXPENSES (Selling, Gen. & Adm.) [*excluding Dep. & Amort.]
= EARNINGS BEFORE INTEREST, TAXES, DEP., & AMORT.  (EBITDA)

- DEPRECIATION & AMORTIZATION
= NET OPERATING INCOME (NOI) or EARNINGS BEFORE INTEREST AND TAXES (EBIT)

- INTEREST EXPENSE
= EARNINGS BEFORE TAXES (EBT)

- TAX EXPENSE
= NET INCOME BEFORE PREFERRED DIVIDENDS or NET INCOME AFTER TAXES

- PREFERRED DIVIDENDS
= NET INCOME AVAILABLE TO COMMON STOCKHOLDERS (NIACS)

下面是微軟的IS,這個就比較全面了:

Total Revenue
Cost of Revenue
Gross Profit
                                                               
Operating Expenses
Research and Development
Selling General and Administrative Expense
Non Recurring
Other Operating Expenses
                                                          
Operating Income
Total Other Income and Expenses Net
EBIT
Interest Expense
Income Before Tax
Income Tax Expense
Equity Earnings or Loss
Unconsolidated Subsidiary
Minority Interest
Net Income From Continuing Operations                                                              

Nonrecurring Events
Discontinued Operations
Extraordinary Items
Effect Of Accounting Changes
Other Items
Net Income
Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments                                                            

Net Income Applicable To Common Shares

區(qū)別就在藍(lán)色標(biāo)注地方啦,簡單的IS中都沒列出nonrecurring events,另外這里的nonrecurring events,似乎還不純粹就是我們中國IS中的營業(yè)外收支
,真是煩人啊...


搞清了OP和EBIT的區(qū)別,接下來就要分析這個NOPAT與Tax之間的關(guān)系了,還是舉個例子吧。假設(shè)條件:
BS: Future income taxes今年比去年增加了325,也就是說change in deferred tax=325
IS: Taxes=(434)
IS: Interest Expense=(675)
IS: Foreign exchange gain=14  (nonoperating gain)
OP=2056
Marginal tax rate=31.16%
Effective tax rate = 31.1%

方法一: 從OP開始計算,NOPAT= Operating income - taxes on operating income, 重點關(guān)注taxes on operating income如何一步一步計算的
(1) 我們可以得出Actual Taxes Paid = Reported Taxes - Change in Def.Taxes
                                               = 434-325
                                               =109
(2) We must take care of the taxes paid on the foreign exchange gain (nonoperating income) and the taxes saved due to the interest expense.
根據(jù)上面的假設(shè)條件,
the taxes saved because of interest expense is 31.16%*675 = 210
the taxes it paid on its foreign exchange gain is 31.16% *14=4

(3) Taxes on operating income is then
Actual Taxes + Taxes Saved because of Interest Expense - Taxes Paid on Nonoperating Income = 109 + 210 -14 = 315.

(4) NOPAT = Operating income - taxes on Operating Income
               = 2056 - 315
               = 1714
這是最基本的方法,完全從NOPAT的定義一步一步推導(dǎo)得出,關(guān)鍵需要注意的是這里的NOPAT不能只是簡單的用OP*(1-tax rate),也就是2056*(1-31.16%)=1415,
  這樣算的問題在于:this method understates company's actual NOPAT due to the taxes it deferred and other tax savings. 但如果把degferred taxes加上去的話,我們得到1415+325 = 1740,這就跟前面計算的NOPAT非常接近了,但要完全一致的話,需要用實際稅率來計算,也就是說
NOPAT=Operating Income*(1-effective tax rate) + change in Def.tax, 即
NOPAT = 2056 *(1-31.1%) + 325 = 1741, 就是方法一中一步一步推導(dǎo)來的結(jié)果。
這種方法計算的關(guān)鍵是先一步步把taxes on OP求出,然后從OP中減去即可,詳細(xì)公式可以這樣表示:NOPAT = OP - [(reported tax - change in Def.tax) + I*(1-t) - Nonoperating income*(1-t)]

方法二: 從EBIT開始計算,很簡單,利用OP = EBIT - nonoperating income這個關(guān)系代入方法一的簡化公式可得:NOPAT = (EBIT - Nonoperating income) * (1-t) + change in Def.tax。

方法三: 從NI開始計算,也很簡單,利用EBIT = NI/(1-t) + Interest Expense這個關(guān)系, 簡化得到為:NOPAT=NI + change in Def.tax + I*(1-t) - Nonoperating income*(1-t).

總結(jié):抓住一點,記住NOPAT的最初定義,和近似處理NOPAT=OP(1-t)+change in Def.tax, 以及NOPAT、EBIT和NI之間的關(guān)系,然后視情況而定?;揪褪沁@樣啦,累死了。


晚上回家繼續(xù)研究,才發(fā)現(xiàn)原來幾乎所有的教材中都是直接用EBIT(1-T)作為NOPAT,也就是息前稅后利潤來計算FCF,那豈不是把一些非經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生收入也都算進(jìn)來了?


另外看到J.O'Hanlon的講義里邊講FCF也是從NOPAT出發(fā)計算,其中他特別引用了Mckinsey那本Valuation: Measuring and Nanaging the Value of Campanies中的一段話(看來經(jīng)典教材就那么幾本了,我是最近才知道這本書,當(dāng)當(dāng)還老缺貨,那時可是毫無意識的):Free cash flow is equal to the after-tax operating earnings of the company, plus non-cash charges, less investment in operating working capital, property, plant and equipment and other assets. It does not incorporate any financing-related cash flows such as interest expense or dividends. THe tax should relect the tax relating to the operating entity and should not reflect the interest deduction.強調(diào)了息前的概念,因為這里估的是整個企業(yè)的價值,而不是股權(quán)價值,前者比后者多了一個I*(1-T).

老頭的公式是FCF=NOPAT - Increase in operating capital
                     = NOPAT + DA - △WC - Capital Expenditure

順便把CFA II中FCFF的四種方法一并給出吧:首先說明
NCC: includes non-cash items such as Depreciation and Def.tax
FCInv : Fixed capital investment equals forecasted increase in the net PP&E account plus depreciation
FCFF = NI + NCC + I*(1-T) - WCInv - FCInv FCFF = EBIT*(1-T) + Dep - WCInv - FCInv, 本來就有NI+I*(1-T) = EBIT*(1-T)成立
FCFF = EBITDA*(1-T) + Dep*T- WCInv - FCInv, 只要把EBIT=EBITDA-DA代如即可
FCFF = CFO - FCInv + I*(1-T)
*******************************************************************
FCFE = FCFF - I*(1-T) + net borrowing (net borrowing = long and short term new debt issues - long and short term debt repayments)
FCFE = NI + NCC - WCInv - FCInv + net borrowing
FCFE = CFO - FCInv + net borrowing

如此看來,再總結(jié)一下:
上面說了那么多關(guān)于NOPAT的東西,還是以CFA為準(zhǔn)吧,要不真正暈頭了。這樣,也就不用把Def.tax作為NOPAT的一項,直接放置NCC里,如此分類似乎更為清晰;當(dāng)然把Def.tax放進(jìn)去的話,在稅后這個概念上也許可以表述得更加準(zhǔn)確一些。反正一個原則就是用純經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生收益operating profit來扣稅,一般來說,也就是EBIT了。至于EBIT包含有非經(jīng)營活動收益的情況,也就是說EBIT≠ OP的情形(這個在中國的利潤表里倒是很容易理解),以后慢慢再琢磨吧。一句話,計算FCF從NOPAT開始,也就是從EBIT(1-T)開始。結(jié)束。

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