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多彩總匯--3
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?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    戀愛(ài)股市上,不同類(lèi)型的男人就是不同類(lèi)型的股票,關(guān)鍵是選股,是否選對(duì)股票,成功得失已決定了大半?! ?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    績(jī)優(yōu)股?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    基本業(yè)績(jī):歲入十萬(wàn)元以上。三室二廳的房子已在分期付款中,副業(yè)也頗具令人刮目相看的實(shí)力。目前他上下班的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)交通工具是私家車(chē)或出租車(chē);長(zhǎng)城卡上的活期錢(qián)額總夠一次心血來(lái)潮的浪漫遠(yuǎn)行。他們的感情往往不如他們收入那樣殷實(shí)可靠,在他們的周遭,有形形色色的“彩蝶”在飛舞。據(jù)不可靠的統(tǒng)計(jì),他們中的三分之二是MBA(工商管理碩士)而自我感覺(jué)又莫名其妙地過(guò)于良好。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    優(yōu)點(diǎn):有錢(qián)總是好事情。缺點(diǎn):感覺(jué)太好容易出事哦!  ?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    選股策略:吊藍(lán)頭,吊到最好,吊不到就拉倒。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    潛力股?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    基本業(yè)績(jī):一人吃餓,令全家不餓。他們苦拼過(guò)赴美通行證,或埋頭于電腦與證券之間進(jìn)行著數(shù)字化的溝通;八塊錢(qián)一杯的茶坊里常常傳出他們的爭(zhēng)執(zhí);某個(gè)處級(jí)單位第三梯隊(duì)的后備名單上,可能列著他們的大名。囊中羞澀是現(xiàn)在進(jìn)行時(shí),而某一方面的特長(zhǎng)又往往令他們想入非非。他們中的一部分在與戀人分享挫折與成功的每一步后,最終會(huì)上升為業(yè)績(jī)優(yōu)股,?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  而另一部分在三十后年只能靠回憶打發(fā)時(shí)光?! ?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    優(yōu)點(diǎn):一起走過(guò)清貧到富足,想想都醉人。缺點(diǎn):就怕他一輩子都是潛力股?! 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基本業(yè)績(jī):富有成熟男人魅力。也許昨天他才拿著離婚判決書(shū)走出法庭;也許他剛剛拋妻別子從美國(guó)回到國(guó)內(nèi)發(fā)展;也許他從來(lái)就未曾打算過(guò)結(jié)婚。他們通過(guò)想像或者經(jīng)歷決然告別了婚姻,“想過(guò)一段單身的日子”是他們共同的借口?! ?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    優(yōu)點(diǎn):成熟得令人無(wú)法抗拒。缺點(diǎn):你會(huì)是他的最后一任太太嗎?  ?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    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在新股上市首日的操作中,有五個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)位置是非常重要的,分別是上午的9:30、9:40、10:00、10:30和下午的13:10。從經(jīng)驗(yàn)上說(shuō),全日的最低點(diǎn)和相對(duì)低點(diǎn)常常出現(xiàn)在這幾個(gè)時(shí)間位置附近。而且,把這幾個(gè)時(shí)間位置用于觀察主力動(dòng)向也常常顯得意義非常。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    在新股首日的操作中,筆者更注重9:40的“黃金之點(diǎn)”和13:10可能出現(xiàn)的“死亡之點(diǎn)”。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    首先看看上午9:40分的情況。在9:40之前的10分鐘交易時(shí)間里,部分原始股東急于變現(xiàn),嘗試“坐莊”的主力試圖吸籌,這時(shí)的新股經(jīng)歷上市后成交最為密集的10分鐘時(shí)間,之后成交量逐步萎縮。密集的成交量往往把主力的動(dòng)向表露無(wú)遺。同時(shí),開(kāi)盤(pán)10分鐘的走勢(shì)也常常成為對(duì)開(kāi)盤(pán)相對(duì)較高定價(jià)的一種修復(fù),大約有近10%的新股在9:40的價(jià)格將成為一段時(shí)間內(nèi)的最低價(jià)格,如最近上市的上市的廣匯股份。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    如果在新股上市首日的9:40,盤(pán)中走勢(shì)符合下列條件,則應(yīng)該考慮買(mǎi)入。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    1、開(kāi)盤(pán)換手率不低于5%。一般認(rèn)為,如果開(kāi)盤(pán)換手率超過(guò)5%,就應(yīng)當(dāng)認(rèn)為有市場(chǎng)主力進(jìn)駐。當(dāng)然,對(duì)于一些高市值的新股,開(kāi)盤(pán)換手率接近5%也可大致判斷有主力進(jìn)駐。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    2、當(dāng)前換手率應(yīng)接近和超過(guò)10%。在一只新股在上市首日買(mǎi)入,能夠在短期內(nèi)取得較好收益,則其首日換手率至少應(yīng)超過(guò)65%。把這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)簡(jiǎn)單拆分一下,考慮到新股首日開(kāi)盤(pán)后成交量逐步減少的因素,則其早市換手率應(yīng)高于45%,其第一小時(shí)換手率應(yīng)高于30%,其開(kāi)盤(pán)10分鐘換手率應(yīng)高于10%。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    3、當(dāng)前價(jià)格應(yīng)處于一個(gè)相對(duì)可以接受的區(qū)域之內(nèi)。這是為了回避新股定價(jià)過(guò)高帶來(lái)的不必要市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    4、外盤(pán)應(yīng)高于內(nèi)盤(pán)。外盤(pán)是累計(jì)主動(dòng)性買(mǎi)盤(pán),內(nèi)盤(pán)是累計(jì)主動(dòng)性賣(mài)盤(pán)。由于主力可以“做盤(pán)”,即通過(guò)刻意“掛單子”買(mǎi)入或賣(mài)出影響內(nèi)外盤(pán)的數(shù)值,所以我們平時(shí)看盤(pán)掌握到的內(nèi)、外盤(pán)數(shù)值實(shí)際意義并不大。而在新股剛剛上市的時(shí)候,現(xiàn)行的新股發(fā)行方法造成市場(chǎng)原始籌碼分散,加上T+1的交易規(guī)則,使得主力不可能在10分鐘極度密集的成交之下實(shí)施“做盤(pán)”行為。在密集的成交量下,任何大的買(mǎi)單和賣(mài)單將很容易得被吞掉。如青島堿業(yè)上市首日9:40接近全日最低點(diǎn),此時(shí)的買(mǎi)盤(pán)是內(nèi)盤(pán)的2倍,在這個(gè)位置買(mǎi)入,當(dāng)日最高收益竟超過(guò)30%!?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    讓我們?cè)倏纯聪挛?3:10的情況。當(dāng)任何市場(chǎng)主力企圖在新股上“坐莊”,必須收集到足夠的“籌碼”。但因各種因素,如盤(pán)中有兩個(gè)以上的主力在吸籌或原始股東惜售等,使得該主力無(wú)法在合適的價(jià)位買(mǎi)到預(yù)期數(shù)量的“貨”,則該主力通常的做法是放棄吸籌,甚至伺機(jī)做空、打壓股價(jià),以便在更低的位置繼續(xù)吸籌。主力花費(fèi)一上午的時(shí)間吸籌后,往往利用中午休市的時(shí)間盤(pán)點(diǎn)籌碼,如發(fā)覺(jué)手中籌碼不足而決定放棄或利用手中籌碼做空13:10就成為“死亡之點(diǎn)”,后市走向不容樂(lè)觀。例如最近上市的“春暉股份”,首日早市走勢(shì)相對(duì)較好,盤(pán)中有主力吸籌的跡象,但在13:10成為“死亡之點(diǎn)”,其后股價(jià)變一路走低。反之,如13:10沒(méi)有成為“死亡之點(diǎn)”,而股價(jià)走勢(shì)又較為強(qiáng)勁者,則意味著主力仍在吸收籌碼,一般情況下,首日的吸籌將在下午14:00以后進(jìn)入尾聲,一些快節(jié)奏的主力常常在尾市即開(kāi)始拉升股價(jià),投資者應(yīng)考慮擇機(jī)買(mǎi)入。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  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一、從成交量看走勢(shì)開(kāi)盤(pán)成交量。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    新股開(kāi)盤(pán)成交量的大小是觀察二級(jí)市場(chǎng)主力是否介入的最早信號(hào)。據(jù)經(jīng)驗(yàn)統(tǒng)計(jì),開(kāi)盤(pán)競(jìng)價(jià)成交量達(dá)到上市新股流通總股本的5%以上,并且開(kāi)盤(pán)價(jià)偏高時(shí)(過(guò)高或偏低均不利于支持判斷),可認(rèn)為有主力參與接盤(pán),后市炒作看好。新股開(kāi)盤(pán)價(jià)并不偏低,但開(kāi)盤(pán)成交量明顯偏小,則為一級(jí)市場(chǎng)持股人嚴(yán)重惜售,如果新股為中、小盤(pán)股,很可能有主力在其中操盤(pán),后市亦應(yīng)看好。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  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新股上市首日流通股換手率在70%以上,表明接盤(pán)蜂擁,后市看漲。但成交量放巨量表明大批散戶(hù),其中包括一批幾十萬(wàn)到一百萬(wàn)元水平的小機(jī)構(gòu)的參與,他們炒作動(dòng)機(jī)無(wú)一例外地屬短線(xiàn)投機(jī),一有差價(jià)就會(huì)趁熱拋出,因此后市漲幅不會(huì)太大,持續(xù)時(shí)間也較短,如果在新股上市日后買(mǎi)入,第二天可根據(jù)換手率的高低(可根據(jù)單位時(shí)間的成交量推算全天成交量并換算成換手率,保持前日水平為佳)和價(jià)格上升的力度,來(lái)決定當(dāng)日是否拋出和什么時(shí)候拋出,此法可延續(xù)到第三天,除非人氣特別旺盛,否則不宜過(guò)久地往后拖延。首日換手率偏小,后市價(jià)格可能下跌,也可能有一可觀的升幅,需多方位分析后再加判斷。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    三、從價(jià)格形態(tài)看走勢(shì)。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    新股上市首日的價(jià)格走勢(shì)常見(jiàn)以下形態(tài):高開(kāi)低走,多為出貨行情,不宜介入;高開(kāi)平走,多形成振蕩出貨行情,早期可用少量資金低吸高拋?zhàn)鞒叹€(xiàn);低開(kāi)高走、平開(kāi)高走或偏高開(kāi)高走,后市常有一段較好行情。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    四、開(kāi)盤(pán)價(jià)位的高低判斷是形態(tài)分析的關(guān)鍵。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    可考慮以新股的理論市價(jià)為平開(kāi)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),低于此價(jià)為低開(kāi),高于此價(jià)約30%為高開(kāi)。原始股東的持股成本可作為超短線(xiàn)炒作的價(jià)位判斷依據(jù),在持股成本附近的開(kāi)盤(pán)價(jià)為平開(kāi),在此價(jià)位不會(huì)形成拋盤(pán)涌出局面,因而有利于短線(xiàn)炒作。成本標(biāo)準(zhǔn)在投機(jī)熱火的市場(chǎng)較為實(shí)用。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    五、因市、因勢(shì)制宜不同市場(chǎng)、不同市況炒作新股應(yīng)有不同的策略。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    上海股市有惡炒之習(xí)慣,新股炒作常常不認(rèn)價(jià)位,只講差價(jià),只要人氣在,新股即便高開(kāi),仍可能被炒到一個(gè)很高的水平。如\"東方明珠\"、\"天津渤海\"高開(kāi)后不幾天即被炒到令人瞠目結(jié)舌之價(jià)位,\"界龍實(shí)業(yè)\"連續(xù)多日拉陽(yáng)線(xiàn),讓人高處不覺(jué)寒。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    因此上海新股上市,如果看準(zhǔn)了會(huì)有一場(chǎng)好炒,則不可用平日眼光進(jìn)行選股和決定買(mǎi)賣(mài),新股開(kāi)盤(pán)在同類(lèi)老股價(jià)位就可算低開(kāi),高于同類(lèi)老股亦可能大有潛力。參與此類(lèi)非常性投機(jī),必須審清大勢(shì)和新股炒作周期所處的階段,并嚴(yán)格遵循快進(jìn)快出的原則。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    在深圳股市,炒新股的最大機(jī)會(huì)往往在大市深跌探底之時(shí)。此時(shí)上市新股往往隨大市下跌,由于無(wú)層層套牢籌碼支撐,由低成本原始股形成的拋壓、主力打壓吸籌以及開(kāi)盤(pán)比價(jià)不會(huì)低等原因,其下跌幅度常超過(guò)老股,價(jià)位被低估。因此,在深圳跌市中,剛上市的新股不宜購(gòu)進(jìn),可耐心觀看其價(jià)格下跌,一旦大市出現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)同時(shí)新股本身止跌回穩(wěn),則可及時(shí)入貨炒作?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  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所謂理念,就是指做一件事時(shí)人們所具有的理智與信念。這之中,含有做事中的哲理,做事中的“分寸”或“度”的觀念,含有戰(zhàn)略性思考的意義。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  只就事論事,不研究事物本質(zhì);只見(jiàn)樹(shù)木,不見(jiàn)森林;只想愿望,不正視現(xiàn)實(shí);等等。這類(lèi)形而上學(xué)的思維毛病,幾乎經(jīng)常可見(jiàn)到,而在股市操作中,股民們對(duì)此的顯露更是充份:?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  只想憑所謂“消息”輕松炒股賺大錢(qián),而不愿正視股市的種種風(fēng)險(xiǎn),不愿下氣力學(xué)習(xí)炒股方法與技巧;只偏愛(ài)上市公司基本面,不能正視業(yè)績(jī)只是股價(jià)漲跌諸多因素之一;只祈望自己運(yùn)氣好,眼巴巴只盼望手中的股票價(jià)格快漲,而不能正視擺在眼前已顯露的風(fēng)險(xiǎn);學(xué)習(xí)了一、二種炒股方法或技巧,就以為自己從此可在股市打天下賺大錢(qián),殊不知個(gè)人的心理素質(zhì)有時(shí)是勝敗關(guān)鍵;等等。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  在股市中遭受虧損的人們,不是認(rèn)為自己“運(yùn)氣”不好,就是以為自己操作技術(shù)不行(可你若同他討論他那些操作技巧,他又會(huì)講得頭頭是道),或干脆很困惑:我這套操作方法與某某高手大師一模一樣,為何他們可賺錢(qián),我卻只虧本??","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  他們中很少有人撿討自己的操作理念。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  在一場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)役中,戰(zhàn)士們很勇敢,指揮員指揮也得當(dāng),但,仗還是打敗了。(例如,當(dāng)年中央蘇區(qū)紅軍“拒敵于國(guó)門(mén)之外”的戰(zhàn)略,致使?fàn)奚四敲炊鄳?zhàn)士,卻仍戰(zhàn)敗被迫去長(zhǎng)征)這是為什么??","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  是由于對(duì)這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)役的總體戰(zhàn)略錯(cuò)了。戰(zhàn)略錯(cuò)了,戰(zhàn)術(shù)再正確也不會(huì)有實(shí)質(zhì)的利好意義。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  操盤(pán)理念,就是炒股戰(zhàn)法中的戰(zhàn)略性質(zhì)的東西。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  理念若錯(cuò)了,你方法技巧再好,也無(wú)濟(jì)于事,也難以?shī)Z取炒股的持久勝利;?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  而正確的理念,則可以幫助你去正確運(yùn)用自己已掌握的操盤(pán)方法與技巧,能幫助你在股市中遠(yuǎn)離失敗,而使你能波浪不驚地長(zhǎng)久穩(wěn)定持續(xù)地在股市中只贏不虧,或大贏小虧。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  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(轉(zhuǎn)帖)猴子掰玉米的故事是人們?cè)偈煜げ贿^(guò)了的,在故事中,那猴子掰一個(gè)夾一個(gè),夾一個(gè)漏一個(gè),最終掰盡了地里的全部玉米,也只能是拿著四個(gè)玉米離開(kāi)了而給人們留下笑柄,但是要是從選擇玉米的角度來(lái)說(shuō)那猴子其實(shí)是沒(méi)有錯(cuò)的。這正如股民進(jìn)入股市炒股一樣,首先面臨的就是選擇股票的問(wèn)題,總不能隨意地抓幾只股票就建倉(cāng)吧??","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  事實(shí)也確實(shí)如此,選擇股票的重要性是每個(gè)股民都知道的。一只好的股票它常常會(huì)給股民帶給意想不到的收益,相反選錯(cuò)了個(gè)股的時(shí)候,那股票又會(huì)使它的持有者承受著巨大的損失??梢哉f(shuō),進(jìn)入股市中的股民人人都希望選擇到幾只好股,人人又都想回避那些可能使自己招致投資虧損的股票。但是同樣一支股票在不同時(shí)期對(duì)不同的投資者來(lái)說(shuō),它的好壞標(biāo)準(zhǔn)其實(shí)是不相同的,它可能會(huì)使某些股民們賺錢(qián),但同時(shí)又可能使另一部分股民虧本,因此對(duì)于股民來(lái)說(shuō),最重要的一點(diǎn)是就是選擇適合你自己投資或投機(jī)的股票,什么樣的人就選擇什么樣的股!?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  就說(shuō)日前筆者拋售了的原水股份吧,我是今年3月份在6.70元處購(gòu)買(mǎi)的,那時(shí)正是該股最具投資價(jià)值的時(shí)候,我認(rèn)為是好股,所以我買(mǎi)進(jìn)了;相反,那些熱衷于投機(jī)的人是不看好該股的。然而,如今當(dāng)原水上漲到11元錢(qián)的時(shí)候,我又覺(jué)得該股缺少投資價(jià)值了,于是我在10元的上方拋售了該股;而這時(shí)卻正是那些喜愛(ài)投機(jī)者博取短線(xiàn)差價(jià)的時(shí)候,因此對(duì)于這些投機(jī)者來(lái)說(shuō),該股相反倒成了好股了。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  有這樣一則故事是很值得股民們借鑒的。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  古希臘哲學(xué)大師蘇格拉底的三個(gè)弟子曾求教老師,怎樣才能找到理想的伴侶 ,蘇格拉底沒(méi)有直接回答,卻讓他們走麥田埂,只許前進(jìn),且僅給一次機(jī)會(huì),要求是選摘一個(gè)最好最大的麥穗。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  第一個(gè)弟子沒(méi)走幾步,就看見(jiàn)一個(gè)又大又漂亮的的麥穗,高興地摘下了。但他繼續(xù)往前走時(shí),發(fā)現(xiàn)前面有許多麥穗比他摘的那個(gè)更大,但他已經(jīng)沒(méi)了機(jī)會(huì),只得遺憾地走完全程。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  第二個(gè)弟子吸取了教訓(xùn),每當(dāng)他要摘時(shí),總要提醒自己,后面還有更好的。可當(dāng)他快到終點(diǎn)時(shí)才發(fā)現(xiàn),機(jī)會(huì)全錯(cuò)過(guò)了。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  第三個(gè)弟子吸取了前兩個(gè)的教訓(xùn)。當(dāng)他走過(guò)全程的三分之一時(shí),即分出大、中、小三類(lèi);再走三分之一時(shí),驗(yàn)證是否正確;等到最后三分之一時(shí),他選擇了屬于大類(lèi)中的一個(gè)美麗的麥穗。雖說(shuō),這麥穗不一定是麥田里最好最大的一個(gè),但對(duì)他來(lái)說(shuō)已經(jīng)是心滿(mǎn)意足了。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  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今年賺了指數(shù)賠了錢(qián)成了許多股民議論紛紜的問(wèn)題,有的股民聽(tīng)著股評(píng)作股票,春節(jié)后還在追高科技和網(wǎng)絡(luò)股,可是自從2月17日大盤(pán)從1770點(diǎn)回落以后,到3月6日股市的成交量日益減少,3月24日指數(shù)開(kāi)始了緩慢的上升過(guò)程從1595點(diǎn)漲到2000點(diǎn)以上,大多數(shù)高科技和網(wǎng)絡(luò)股不是橫盤(pán)就是陰跌,就算是反彈也不過(guò)一兩天。持有這些股票的股民賺了指數(shù)賠了錢(qián)。市場(chǎng)人士也注意到了這個(gè)問(wèn)題,告訴股民沒(méi)有及時(shí)跟上轉(zhuǎn)換熱點(diǎn),但是為什么沒(méi)有跟上?那就說(shuō)不清了。其實(shí)出現(xiàn)這種現(xiàn)象的根本原因是有些股民沒(méi)有認(rèn)清我們股的投機(jī)性,輕信某些股評(píng)家所謂“高科技股的成長(zhǎng)性”,“網(wǎng)絡(luò)股的新經(jīng)濟(jì)牲”,直到現(xiàn)在每到高科技股反彈時(shí),一些高科技股要啟動(dòng)的言論馬上就出來(lái)了,而每一次都讓人失望。為什么?還是應(yīng)該從投機(jī)市中找原因。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  我們的深滬股市只有10年的歷史,還屬于初級(jí)階段,表現(xiàn)出明顯的投機(jī)性,再加上大多數(shù)上市公司改制不徹底,業(yè)績(jī)很差,運(yùn)作又不規(guī)范,就更助長(zhǎng)了過(guò)度投機(jī)。這種投機(jī)的特點(diǎn)就是“風(fēng)水輪流傳”,“后莊不給前莊解套”。在我們的股市上現(xiàn)在并沒(méi)有微軟那樣的高成長(zhǎng)公司,被稱(chēng)為網(wǎng)絡(luò)股的不過(guò)是觸了一下網(wǎng),真正的網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司還沒(méi)上市,有些掛“高科”名稱(chēng)的公司并不是主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)。所以用投資的方法去賣(mài)它的“成長(zhǎng)性”,難免不被套牢。今年3月我曾在一個(gè)網(wǎng)站的散戶(hù)論上發(fā)表了一篇《我對(duì)低價(jià)股的幾點(diǎn)看法》,馬上就有一位朋友說(shuō):“等大盤(pán)跌停板了再說(shuō)吧”,后來(lái)我的文章發(fā)表在上證報(bào)網(wǎng)絡(luò)版和網(wǎng)易經(jīng)濟(jì)頻道中。5月份我又在《四川新聞網(wǎng)》上發(fā)表了《西部大開(kāi)發(fā)我買(mǎi)東部股》,指出現(xiàn)在市場(chǎng)上鋼鐵、水泥等材料在漲價(jià),所以低價(jià)股要漲。在文章的最后有這樣一段話(huà):“前期炒作高科技股的市場(chǎng)主力想要出來(lái)就要換股,重演95年的“大盤(pán)股革命”。高科技不要碰,這是重點(diǎn)出貨對(duì)象,主力成本不高,恨不得馬上出手。.......主力是想出高科技,但出得來(lái)出不來(lái),可不一定,用證券界人士的話(huà)說(shuō),現(xiàn)在散戶(hù)也油了?!?,"nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":" 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作股票首先有要獨(dú)立思考的的修養(yǎng),要知道自己是在干什么?現(xiàn)在的股市究竟是什么狀況?不要被那些眼花繚亂的現(xiàn)象搞錯(cuò)昏了頭。我們的深滬股市還處于初級(jí)階段,其特點(diǎn)是法規(guī)不健全,這種不規(guī)范的市場(chǎng),一般表現(xiàn)為震蕩市,無(wú)所謂牛市與熊市。所以我并沒(méi)有受所謂大牛市的干擾,同時(shí)也不相信99年的所謂“恢復(fù)性行情”,因?yàn)閺?4年以來(lái)每年都有一次大行情。在這個(gè)思想的指導(dǎo)下,我十分注意觀察機(jī)會(huì)的來(lái)臨。怎么判斷機(jī)會(huì)呢,除了技術(shù)指標(biāo)之外,就是對(duì)利好、消息、股評(píng)進(jìn)行辯證的分析。有人說(shuō),你寫(xiě)了那么多批評(píng)利好、批評(píng)股評(píng)的文章,現(xiàn)在又說(shuō)要看,這不是矛盾嗎?不錯(cuò),是矛盾,我們就是在股市中的矛盾中玩股票的,要是認(rèn)為沒(méi)有矛盾了,反而會(huì)失誤。或者說(shuō)思維中的矛盾是對(duì)客觀現(xiàn)實(shí)的反映。當(dāng)前,我們股市的矛盾一個(gè)重要的表現(xiàn),就是初級(jí)階段中,不健康、不成熟、不規(guī)范的市場(chǎng)與利好、股評(píng)的矛盾,你看明明是上市公司業(yè)績(jī)逐年下降,卻說(shuō)是“恢復(fù)性”的行情,你說(shuō)矛盾不矛盾。所以辯證的思考,會(huì)使我們冷靜,作出比較正確的判斷。這里我舉幾個(gè)例子。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   97年初,瓊民源有送股題材,我買(mǎi)了一千股,當(dāng)時(shí)已經(jīng)是20多元了,但是有一天,我從《中國(guó)證券報(bào)》上看到兩種評(píng)論,一種說(shuō)它業(yè)績(jī)大幅度提高,一種說(shuō)它值得懷疑,當(dāng)時(shí)我的直覺(jué)告訴我立即拋,第二天我毫不猶豫地拋,第三天,它被停了牌。為什么呢,我在這兩種矛盾的評(píng)論中,取了懷疑的觀點(diǎn),因?yàn)楣墒刑幵诔跫?jí)階段,違規(guī)的事是經(jīng)常發(fā)生的。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   另外,每次利好和利空都有是有征兆的,96年十二道金牌,已經(jīng)明顯地表明了當(dāng)時(shí)要制止股市的惡性投機(jī),而一些大機(jī)構(gòu)就是不聽(tīng)話(huà),這種矛盾的現(xiàn)象,預(yù)示著風(fēng)險(xiǎn)就要來(lái)了。我又從《參考消息》上看到評(píng)論要制止投機(jī)風(fēng)的小豆腐塊文章,《參考消息》一般情況下是不登股評(píng)的,我立即決定——跑,兩天后見(jiàn)到了第一篇評(píng)論員文章。我們小股民得到點(diǎn)消息不易,知道了,就必須立即行動(dòng)。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   然而對(duì)評(píng)論員文章還可以做另一種理解,就是利空出盡是利好,當(dāng)時(shí)股市上一片恐慌,在屏幕上看到的上證領(lǐng)先和深證領(lǐng)先天天掛綠簾。94年所謂的“健康問(wèn)題”也曾引起股市的恐慌,但暴跌之后出現(xiàn)了有力度的反彈,有了那次經(jīng)驗(yàn),我在96年底天天去股市,在評(píng)論員文章發(fā)表后的第三天我發(fā)現(xiàn)屏幕上的綠簾不再那么整齊了,這說(shuō)明機(jī)構(gòu)在悄悄的進(jìn)貨,我馬上告訴股友們,大膽進(jìn)。所以每次在所謂的利空出現(xiàn)時(shí),只要一有跌停板,我都立即進(jìn)貨。同樣每次出現(xiàn)大利好,我都在兩三天內(nèi)出貨,利好出盡是利空。原因很簡(jiǎn)單,我們的股市是初級(jí)階段的震蕩市,與國(guó)際上成熟的股市不同。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   這里,我并不是說(shuō),每次利好都要做反向的理解,關(guān)鍵是看股指站在什么點(diǎn)位,96年剛一開(kāi)始有降息的消息,上證指數(shù)才600多點(diǎn),這時(shí)就不能做反向的理解,只能做正面的理解。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   講到股評(píng)的題材,我認(rèn)為,象股市行情一樣,也有它的起步、發(fā)展、高潮階段,前兩天,我在網(wǎng)上一再提醒投資者,網(wǎng)絡(luò)股不能再追高了,就是輿論已經(jīng)到了白熱化的程度,事情要走向反面。這兩天大家都有看到了所謂高技的億安科技已經(jīng)下跌,前兩天呢?股評(píng)還說(shuō)它是中國(guó)第一只百元股代表新理念呢?已經(jīng)上了重要電視臺(tái)的節(jié)目,這說(shuō)明登峰造極,是向反面的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。我再說(shuō)一句,從去年519以來(lái)。類(lèi)似于造神運(yùn)動(dòng)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)股神話(huà),已經(jīng)是日落黃花,一些股評(píng)家們正準(zhǔn)備制造新的題材,這也是初級(jí)階段的股市的特征。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  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證券市場(chǎng)的投資者都知道如何判斷一段行情的頂和底,是掌握進(jìn)貨和出貨時(shí)機(jī)的最基本方法。頂和底是一個(gè)區(qū)域,用技術(shù)分析方法是很難精確地計(jì)算出點(diǎn)位來(lái)的,必須把技術(shù)方法與實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn)結(jié)合起來(lái)。因?yàn)樯顪墒薪?jīng)常出現(xiàn)超實(shí)再超買(mǎi),超賣(mài)再超賣(mài)的情況。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   從我的經(jīng)驗(yàn)看,頂和底都在一閃之中,人們從電視屏幕上看不到頂和底停留的時(shí)間,哪怕是一秒,,當(dāng)然這只是一天的底。如果觀察三天之內(nèi)它不再反復(fù)出現(xiàn),,那就是一個(gè)階段的底,反復(fù)出現(xiàn)的不是頂和底。1995年股市處于底迷狀態(tài),春節(jié)剛過(guò)股市就出現(xiàn)了陰跌,有一天我在證券營(yíng)業(yè)部看到最底524點(diǎn),但是沒(méi)有看到它的停留時(shí)間,一整天這個(gè)點(diǎn)位都有沒(méi)有出現(xiàn),而且在以后三天再也沒(méi)有看到這個(gè)點(diǎn)位,于是我和股友們商量,524點(diǎn)可能是底,進(jìn)一批股票試試吧,一看還真靈。以后又在幾次行情中試了試,確實(shí)是有效的判斷。那一年除了解518行情之外,有過(guò)幾次在580點(diǎn)和777點(diǎn)之間的波動(dòng),當(dāng)時(shí)的777點(diǎn)被看成是神秘?cái)?shù)字,股指過(guò)不了這個(gè)關(guān)口是很難有大行情的。當(dāng)然,就在這個(gè)一閃之中的頂和底中,技術(shù)指標(biāo)早以給出了提示,所以實(shí)踐與技術(shù)分析相結(jié)合是我判斷的依據(jù),這種方法是在波段行情中的應(yīng)用,不是對(duì)股市一年趨勢(shì)的判斷,以后經(jīng)過(guò)幾次波段行情指數(shù)不破524點(diǎn),才能判斷它是95年的底。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   不過(guò)上述方法是在沒(méi)有重大消息時(shí)的一般判斷方法。95年518行情的第四天,一位記者問(wèn)我,明天還能漲多高,我說(shuō)明天770點(diǎn),因?yàn)槲铱吹?28點(diǎn)在全天只是一閃之中,從當(dāng)時(shí)的形勢(shì)來(lái)看,股市的熱度很高,停止國(guó)債期貨的措施引起的效果,是管理層事先沒(méi)有估計(jì)到的,很可能會(huì)出什么新措施。況且當(dāng)天收在了870點(diǎn),所以一有風(fēng)吹草動(dòng),股市也會(huì)跳空開(kāi)盤(pán)的。所以我當(dāng)時(shí)的意思是,有消息,就會(huì)暴跌。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   今年的2月16日,我在家里看行情,發(fā)現(xiàn)電話(huà)委托占線(xiàn),趕緊向證券營(yíng)業(yè)部跑。到了哪里一看,人山人海,再一看屏幕,最高1770點(diǎn),我馬上問(wèn),誰(shuí)看到期1770的停留時(shí)間了?大家都有沒(méi)有看到,這時(shí)的上證指數(shù)已經(jīng)在1735點(diǎn)徘徊20 多分鐘。所以我們幾個(gè)老股民一商量,出貨!自助機(jī)已經(jīng)擠滿(mǎn)了人,我們馬上填委托單。因?yàn)槿诉@么多,也是見(jiàn)頂?shù)男盘?hào),即使1770點(diǎn)不是頂,也離頂不遠(yuǎn)了。這和我在94年10月5日那天下午遇到的營(yíng)業(yè)部里中有我和一位大夫在睡覺(jué)的情況,正好相反,所以要趕在這個(gè)人最多的時(shí)間出貨。也許有人要問(wèn)后面還漲,你怎么辦?我們當(dāng)時(shí)的決定是:不管后面,再等可能沒(méi)時(shí)間了。因?yàn)槲也荒茉賹?duì)1770點(diǎn)觀察三天,創(chuàng)新高必有回調(diào)。而且再創(chuàng)新高,我們也不想作了。因?yàn)槌跫?jí)階段的股市,還會(huì)再跌下來(lái),它的震蕩勢(shì)特征會(huì)在較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間內(nèi)表現(xiàn)出來(lái)。我們還有機(jī)會(huì)。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  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很多股民聽(tīng)股評(píng)的一個(gè)重要目的,就是希望專(zhuān)家推薦個(gè)股,但是這些推薦來(lái)的個(gè)股,往往第二天就漲,第三天就有氣無(wú)力了,再等到就被套住了,所以我們要學(xué)會(huì)自己選股。但是選好了股也不一定賺錢(qián),一個(gè)行情到來(lái)的時(shí)候,很多股民手里拿的股票都賺錢(qián),但等到行情結(jié)束,有時(shí)卻賠錢(qián),所以會(huì)買(mǎi)還要會(huì)賣(mài)。下面談一些我自己的體會(huì),事先聲明,我講的是最一般的操作方法,對(duì)虧損股和熱門(mén)股不適用,我基本上不碰這些股票,因?yàn)椴恢滥囊惶焯潛p股摘牌,也不知道熱門(mén)股連拉幾個(gè)漲停板之后會(huì)突然來(lái)幾個(gè)跌停。我是求穩(wěn)的人。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   (一)買(mǎi)技術(shù)指標(biāo)最差的股,賣(mài)技術(shù)指標(biāo)最好的股","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   利用技術(shù)指標(biāo)選股是一個(gè)很好的方法,我主要是利用KDJ值和SAR值。技術(shù)指標(biāo)很多,每個(gè)都有用,往往很難綜合,所以每個(gè)人最好用自己熟悉的指標(biāo),兩三個(gè)也就夠了。一般我是在一個(gè)股票J值在0軸附近時(shí)買(mǎi)入,在80以上賣(mài)出,。如果我們打開(kāi)個(gè)股的長(zhǎng)期日線(xiàn)圖,就會(huì)看到大多數(shù)股票都有有周期性的變化,一年會(huì)有幾次,從J值在0以下到80以上甚至于100以上的運(yùn)行周期,而在每一個(gè)周期中SAR值都有呈現(xiàn)由一連串的綠圈到紅圈的運(yùn)行過(guò)程,一般說(shuō)在一串綠圈之后出現(xiàn)紅圈是見(jiàn)底信號(hào),可以買(mǎi)進(jìn);在一串紅圈之后出現(xiàn)綠圈,是見(jiàn)頂信號(hào),可以賣(mài)出,當(dāng)然這還要結(jié)合前面所說(shuō)的KDJ值來(lái)看。這種方法適合作一般的股票,對(duì)熱門(mén)股不適用。大家可以看這次行情的上海石化,明顯地表現(xiàn)出是一個(gè)周期,從3.50到4.20,也有0.7元的空間,只要從中有0.5元的利潤(rùn),就是13%。當(dāng)然,你如果是短線(xiàn)高手,可以去玩熱股。那時(shí)靠技術(shù)指標(biāo)不行,要有博殺的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   (二)吃魚(yú)身,不吃頭和尾。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   任何人在股市上作股標(biāo)都很少買(mǎi)最低價(jià)賣(mài)最高價(jià),如果一味追求百分之百,可能適得其反。記得96年初大眾出租天除權(quán)后,跌到了11元,我12元買(mǎi)進(jìn),當(dāng)時(shí)在營(yíng)業(yè)部的股友們勸我快點(diǎn)賣(mài),它已經(jīng)漲到了16元,可是我剛出手不久,它又到了17元。股友們說(shuō),留點(diǎn)利潤(rùn)給別人,別作的太絕了?;丶乙幌耄械览?,最低價(jià)和最高價(jià)不屬于我,而且我永遠(yuǎn)做不到,炒股的原則是賺錢(qián),賺多賺少不要緊,關(guān)鍵是別賠。 所以這是一個(gè)心態(tài)問(wèn)題,有了這樣的心態(tài),逐步積累,也不錯(cuò)。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   (三)賣(mài)了股票離場(chǎng)休息,緊緊握信自己的錢(qián)","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   在股市上我看到不少投資者,剛剛賣(mài)了股票,就急急忙忙地?fù)Q股,想再撈一把,這常常會(huì)失誤,因?yàn)檫@時(shí)的心態(tài)已經(jīng)被場(chǎng)面上的熱度感染,很難冷靜,不妨離場(chǎng)休息,找地方玩一玩,甚至休息一段時(shí)間,調(diào)整好心態(tài)再去股市。因?yàn)闆](méi)有只漲不跌的股市,也沒(méi)有只跌不漲的股市,急急忙忙地買(mǎi),甚至高價(jià)追趕漲,一有風(fēng)吹草動(dòng)就會(huì)把心態(tài)搞壞,很容易出錯(cuò)。我常常和朋友開(kāi)玩笑,說(shuō)股票好象不定時(shí)的炸彈,不知它什么時(shí)候爆炸,這樣才能有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)意識(shí)。這因?yàn)槿绱?,所以賣(mài)了股票,最好離場(chǎng)。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]}]},{"nodeName":"tr","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"td","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":";text-align:right"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"a","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":"color: rgb(192, 192, 192); text-decoration: none; line-height: 18px; letter-spacing: 1.5px; 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韓強(qiáng)《假如賠錢(qián)怎么辦—散戶(hù)的操作策略之五》?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  作股票都想賺錢(qián),誰(shuí)也不想賠錢(qián),但這只是愿望,這個(gè)愿望能否實(shí)現(xiàn)還要靠投資者的具體操作。但是任何事物都有兩種以上的可能性,也會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)化出兩種以上的現(xiàn)實(shí)性。也就是說(shuō),進(jìn)入股市,不管你怎么想賺錢(qián),都有兩種可能性,或者是賺,或者是賠(被套雖然是賬面虧損,但也是在一定時(shí)間內(nèi)的賠)。所以不妨先來(lái)個(gè)反向思考,我能賺錢(qián)嗎?假如賠了怎么辦?我如何爭(zhēng)取不賠,如果你先想到了賠的可能性,并且有賠錢(qián)的思想準(zhǔn)備,也就具有了承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力,這時(shí)你就會(huì)從避免賠錢(qián)開(kāi)始,認(rèn)真地考慮什么時(shí)候介入最合適,買(mǎi)那只股票最合適,于是也就在一定程度上避免了賠錢(qián)的可能性,而朝著賺錢(qián)的可能性發(fā)展了。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  其實(shí),我們這些在股市泡長(zhǎng)了的股民,都在自覺(jué)或不自覺(jué)地應(yīng)用反向思維的形式。在股市中,我曾經(jīng)歷過(guò)一個(gè)真實(shí)的故事,有一個(gè)開(kāi)理發(fā)店的老板娘,她每天在股市中看盤(pán),不時(shí)地在小本子中記錄,看了一個(gè)月,才動(dòng)手買(mǎi)股票,后來(lái)的操作成功率很高。我曾經(jīng)問(wèn)過(guò)這位女士,她說(shuō),我雖然開(kāi)理發(fā)店,但看到許多做買(mǎi)賣(mài)的人賠錢(qián),所以,我想任何買(mǎi)賣(mài)都有有賠有賺,作股票也是一種買(mǎi)賣(mài),當(dāng)然要想好怎樣才不會(huì)賠。話(huà)雖然樸素,但道理深刻。她手中無(wú)股心中有股,實(shí)際上就是想避免賠錢(qián),有了這種思想準(zhǔn)備,所以因?yàn)樗3O氲氖?,我不要賠錢(qián),極力地避免賠錢(qián),所以就經(jīng)常賺錢(qián)。這大概是沒(méi)有學(xué)過(guò)相反理論,又在實(shí)踐中運(yùn)用反向思維方式的一個(gè)例子。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  有些朋友追漲殺跌,就是因?yàn)槭孪葲](méi)有考慮過(guò),我買(mǎi)這只股票究竟能不能賺錢(qián),能賺多少錢(qián),如果賠了錢(qián)怎么辦?能賠多少錢(qián)?究竟是賠的概率大,還是賺的概率大?有的朋友常常是聽(tīng)了職業(yè)股評(píng)家推薦的股票就冒然買(mǎi)進(jìn),甚至去追趕熱點(diǎn),結(jié)果損失慘重。如果,事先想一想,賠了怎么辦?可能會(huì)冷靜下來(lái),至少不去追高,等一等,或者買(mǎi)個(gè)還沒(méi)漲的股票,讓自己怕踏空的心理平衡一下,也許會(huì)好一些?!笆刂甏谩钡墓适?,常常被人們嘲笑,但如果反過(guò)來(lái),先買(mǎi)個(gè)沒(méi)有漲的股,來(lái)個(gè)“守株待兔”也未常不可,好象股市里“守株等兔”的成功率遠(yuǎn)比典故中的那個(gè)農(nóng)民要高得多,他好象是偶然,但到了股市里可經(jīng)常會(huì)有兔子,甚至是大兔子撞到你的樹(shù)下。所在一定條件下,看來(lái)是很傻的事,在另外的條件下,有可能是聰明的事。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]}]},{"nodeName":"tr","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"td","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":";text-align:right"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"a","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":"color: rgb(192, 192, 192); text-decoration: none; line-height: 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韓強(qiáng)《一個(gè)換股炒作的方案——散戶(hù)的操作策略之六》","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   有位網(wǎng)友寫(xiě)了一篇《中國(guó)十大套牢股票》,其中提到了四川長(zhǎng)虹和深發(fā)展,這些投票從97年就套了一大批人。記得今年4月初曾有一位朋友友問(wèn)我:48元和38元買(mǎi)的長(zhǎng)虹和發(fā)展怎么辦?我曾給他出過(guò)一個(gè)主意:在18元以上賣(mài)出深發(fā)展,在14元以上出四川長(zhǎng)虹,然后換成同等數(shù)量的上海汽車(chē),當(dāng)時(shí)上海汽車(chē)10.5元,這樣扣除5毛的手續(xù)費(fèi),每股長(zhǎng)虹換上海汽車(chē)可以多出來(lái)3元,1000股就是3000元,同樣道理,每股發(fā)展換上海汽車(chē)可以多出來(lái)7元,1000股就是7000元。一方面反正是套住了,套在上海汽車(chē)上比套在長(zhǎng)虹上好(當(dāng)時(shí)市場(chǎng)上已經(jīng)流傳長(zhǎng)虹業(yè)績(jī)不好,上海汽車(chē)已公布業(yè)績(jī)0.51元)這種策略叫用活資金,可以利用換股多出來(lái)的資金再做,即使再次被套,也是賺了股票,手里股票數(shù)量比原來(lái)多了。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   這個(gè)方案是利用出來(lái)的一部分錢(qián),再請(qǐng)教短線(xiàn)高手推薦個(gè)好股票,慢慢的賺錢(qián),同時(shí)也不會(huì)因?yàn)橘u(mài)掉全部股票又沒(méi)有及時(shí)換股而踏空,逐漸調(diào)整心態(tài),從長(zhǎng)期被套的陰影中走出來(lái)??赡苓@位朋友想不通,所以他也沒(méi)有這樣做。98年和99年我曾給一些朋友出過(guò)這個(gè)主意,當(dāng)時(shí)是換的泰達(dá),因?yàn)橹亟M后的泰達(dá),業(yè)績(jī)一直在發(fā)展和長(zhǎng)虹之上,價(jià)格比發(fā)展、長(zhǎng)虹低,盤(pán)子卻比它們小得多。我還有一個(gè)朋友,干脆找了一個(gè)職業(yè)炒手,幫他來(lái)了個(gè)大換血,很快解了套,還賺了錢(qián)。當(dāng)然這個(gè)方案只是一種建議,每個(gè)人的操作方法不同,不一定都這么做。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   我舉這個(gè)例子是說(shuō),股票很難做,不小心要套很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間,不僅賺了指數(shù)賠了錢(qián),而且很可能長(zhǎng)期套牢。指數(shù)只能做參考,把它作為大勢(shì)漲跌的一種趨勢(shì)(僅僅是個(gè)參考),個(gè)股還要仔細(xì)看。95年“大盤(pán)股革命”時(shí),一些在5.18短促大行情中沒(méi)有出來(lái)的莊家,其實(shí)就是利用換股炒作才得以脫身,在8月中旬開(kāi)始炒大盤(pán)低價(jià)股,到了10月份,上證指數(shù)在700——800點(diǎn)之間,而一汽金杯、上海石化、馬鋼股份、北旅汽車(chē)的股價(jià)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于5.18行情的928點(diǎn),記得928點(diǎn)時(shí)的四川廣華只有2.60元,而在8月份已經(jīng)到了6元以上。后來(lái)在96年初,當(dāng)上證指數(shù)跌到560點(diǎn)時(shí),一汽金杯只見(jiàn)到2.70元,這個(gè)價(jià)格正好是95年5.18行情(928點(diǎn))的最高價(jià)。反過(guò)來(lái)也是一樣,在96年大炒“97概念”時(shí),上海石化曾在850點(diǎn)就站上了8元的高價(jià),以后在1200點(diǎn)時(shí),基本上原地踏步,到了97年1510點(diǎn)時(shí),石化變成了7元,到了2000年的1858點(diǎn),這只股票最高價(jià)僅有5元多。所有這些情況說(shuō)明,在我們這個(gè)投機(jī)性很強(qiáng)的市場(chǎng)上,風(fēng)水輪流轉(zhuǎn)的情況時(shí)有發(fā)生。當(dāng)然,這并不是說(shuō),一切股票都會(huì)風(fēng)水輪流轉(zhuǎn),而是說(shuō)對(duì)于指數(shù)和股票,我們都需要辯證的看。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]}]},{"nodeName":"tr","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"td","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":";text-align:right"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"a","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":"color: 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;"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"tbody","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"tr","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":" line-height: 18px; letter-spacing: 1.5px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); ;;text-align:center"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"td","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"【 · 發(fā)布:應(yīng)當(dāng)看看(臨時(shí))  2000-08-13 20:02 】  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]}]},{"nodeName":"tr","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"td","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":" line-height: 1.4; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); ;;text-align:left"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  韓強(qiáng)《不輕易滿(mǎn)倉(cāng)操作——散戶(hù)的股戰(zhàn)策略之七》","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   在股評(píng)中,常常聽(tīng)到一些“專(zhuān)家”說(shuō),XX股票莊家已介入,將要大幅上升,應(yīng)“滿(mǎn)倉(cāng)”介入。所以滿(mǎn)倉(cāng)操作并不是散戶(hù)的發(fā)明,而機(jī)構(gòu)大戶(hù)的發(fā)明,不僅滿(mǎn)倉(cāng),而且還超級(jí)滿(mǎn)倉(cāng)(透支),這樣做的結(jié)果不僅害了證券營(yíng)業(yè)部的不少大戶(hù),也害了不少聽(tīng)著股評(píng)作股票的散戶(hù)。如果我們看一看目前的投資基金,現(xiàn)在除了大量持股之外還有持國(guó)債,現(xiàn)金已所剩無(wú)幾,這大概是目前股市漲也縮量,跌也縮量的的原因之一。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   我個(gè)人認(rèn)為,在大多數(shù)情況下,不應(yīng)滿(mǎn)倉(cāng)操作。打仗最忌全線(xiàn)出擊,要有一、 二、 三梯隊(duì)。情況不明如想操作,可少量試一試,來(lái)個(gè)火力偵察,體驗(yàn)一下感覺(jué),如果不行就趕快退出來(lái)。對(duì)于一般散戶(hù)來(lái)說(shuō),既不空倉(cāng),也不滿(mǎn)倉(cāng),手里要有壓倉(cāng)籌碼,例如20倍市盈率以下的股票,有這樣的股票墊底,可以克服突然上漲時(shí)的踏空的心理,平衡心態(tài),進(jìn)可攻,退可守,例如,在今年在上海汽車(chē)公布業(yè)績(jī)之后,一直在10元上下波動(dòng),這時(shí)拿一些來(lái)壓倉(cāng),無(wú)論大盤(pán)漲跌,都保持一部分。所謂“壓倉(cāng)”是說(shuō)低位接的績(jī)優(yōu)股,這可以保持相對(duì)長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間(要時(shí)時(shí)注意業(yè)績(jī)的變化)。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   不輕易滿(mǎn)倉(cāng),并不是絕對(duì)不能滿(mǎn)倉(cāng)。個(gè)別情況下,可以滿(mǎn)倉(cāng),但不是一次性滿(mǎn)倉(cāng),就是連續(xù)暴跌時(shí),每跌一次,進(jìn)三分之一,三次進(jìn)滿(mǎn),其后必有大反彈,至少可出掉三分之二。但該出貨時(shí)不要猶豫,不管后面怎么漲都不要后悔,只要賺錢(qián)就行,當(dāng)然也可漲一次放三分之一,再漲再放。這種方法最好少用,穩(wěn)妥的方法是連續(xù)暴跌也只建三分之二的倉(cāng)位,手中保持一定的現(xiàn)金,就好象有了預(yù)備隊(duì),以防不測(cè),股市風(fēng)險(xiǎn)莫測(cè),留一分小心還是必要的。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]}]},{"nodeName":"tr","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"td","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":";text-align:right"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"a","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":"color: rgb(192, 192, 192); 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;"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"span","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":"border-collapse: collapse; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 23px; ;"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]}]},{"nodeName":"table","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":"word-break: break-all; border-collapse: collapse; empty-cells: show; text-align: center; line-height: 23px; letter-spacing: 1.3px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); ;"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"tbody","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"tr","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":" line-height: 18px; letter-spacing: 1.5px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); ;;text-align:center"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"td","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"【 · 發(fā)布:應(yīng)當(dāng)看看(臨時(shí))  2000-08-13 20:07 】  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]}]},{"nodeName":"tr","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"td","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":" line-height: 1.4; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); ;;text-align:left"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  《控制貪心和恐懼——散戶(hù)的操作策略之八》","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  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講到控制貪心和恐懼,往往被理解為股市上漲不要沖昏頭腦,下跌不要驚惶失措;對(duì)于個(gè)股說(shuō),不要總想賣(mài)個(gè)最高價(jià),下跌不要匆忙割肉。但僅僅這樣理解還不夠,還可以進(jìn)一步理解為,上漲不要怕踏空,驚惶失措地追漲,下跌不要貪得無(wú)厭,總想買(mǎi)個(gè)最低價(jià)。實(shí)際上正反兩方面都容易引起貪心和恐懼。在股市操作中的失誤,往往第二種情況的心理不平衡出現(xiàn)的情況更多。買(mǎi)進(jìn)一只股票,仔細(xì)看著它,這時(shí)小心翼翼,控制著自己的貪心,在相對(duì)高點(diǎn)賣(mài)出了,這本來(lái)很好,但是一看到自己剛賣(mài)出的股票以漲起來(lái)了,這時(shí)怕踏空的恐懼產(chǎn)生了,趕緊加價(jià)追趕漲,結(jié)果第二天這只股票又跌下來(lái)了,不及時(shí)止損,反而高位套牢,前功盡棄,這是貪心引起的恐懼。同樣,當(dāng)自己控制信了恐懼,看到了底部,卻貪心地想買(mǎi)一個(gè)最低價(jià),結(jié)果就是等不來(lái),甚至指數(shù)跌也等不來(lái)某個(gè)股票的最低價(jià),結(jié)果三等兩等股票漲起來(lái)了,只好加價(jià)追進(jìn)提高了成本,這是恐懼轉(zhuǎn)化為貪心。這些實(shí)際的例子,許多人都經(jīng)歷過(guò)。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  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(轉(zhuǎn)帖)炒股勝似閑庭信步?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  我進(jìn)入股市時(shí)間也很長(zhǎng)了,前后三年多。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  現(xiàn)在感覺(jué),炒股簡(jiǎn)直是一種享受。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  如何能使你的炒股時(shí)光變成閑庭信步和一種享受呢?根據(jù)本人多年的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。談?wù)勼w會(huì),希望能起到拋磚引玉的效果。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  第一:看公司基本面?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  首先,你得有些基本的各方面知識(shí)。比如財(cái)務(wù)管理,資產(chǎn)管理,企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略,管理經(jīng)濟(jì)等企業(yè)管理和資產(chǎn)運(yùn)作方面的基本知識(shí)以及相關(guān)行業(yè)的技術(shù)知識(shí)。這樣便于你看那些公司的公告信息 。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  于是,飯后一只煙,看看證券報(bào)。多么悠閑自在。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  如果你懶得去學(xué)那些基本常識(shí),也沒(méi)關(guān)系。看看目標(biāo)公司的董事會(huì)中有沒(méi)有懂這方面的董事。以及他們的年齡結(jié)構(gòu)。一般董事會(huì)成員平均年齡在40以下最好。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  如果董事會(huì)里面,沒(méi)有兩個(gè)以上的人有上述文化和學(xué)習(xí)經(jīng)歷。那你就不要去關(guān)心它。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  第二??纯此木€(xiàn)?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  當(dāng)你從第一條中找到了目標(biāo)公司。再查查他的K線(xiàn)。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  很簡(jiǎn)單哦,將中期線(xiàn)設(shè)置為73天線(xiàn)。短線(xiàn)均線(xiàn)設(shè)置為3和17天線(xiàn)。打開(kāi)電腦。看看均線(xiàn)與價(jià)格的關(guān)系。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  如果低于73天線(xiàn)0到10%,買(mǎi)入穩(wěn)賺。至少有50%?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  如果股價(jià)在3日線(xiàn)上,持有睡覺(jué) 但是超過(guò)10%,先賣(mài)再說(shuō)。在離開(kāi)3日線(xiàn)向下5%在買(mǎi)回來(lái)。錢(qián)不變。股票就多了。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  如果在3日到17日之間可以不管。如果在17日下或者平。就拿錢(qián)走人。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  第三。開(kāi)始的一到兩個(gè)月,搗糨糊。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  按第二條的做法。倒差價(jià)。自己給自己送股。你的本錢(qián)將比莊家的都低。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  這時(shí),你就是莊家的莊家。睡覺(jué)去。不到100%不賣(mài)。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  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?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"a","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":"color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-decoration: none; ;"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"span","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":"text-decoration:underline;;"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"多彩總匯","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]}]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   瀏覽/回復(fù):120/0】","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]}]},{"nodeName":"tr","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"td","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":" line-height: 1.4; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); ;;text-align:left"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  (轉(zhuǎn)帖)神光研究員:孫成鋼","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  從虧損中走出來(lái)","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  1995年9月底,我結(jié)婚了,用自己賺的錢(qián)辦完喜事,置辦完家具,帳戶(hù)里還是有2萬(wàn)多元。這個(gè)時(shí)候,我正擔(dān)任某證券部的經(jīng)理,領(lǐng)導(dǎo)得知我善于做股票,股評(píng)做得也不錯(cuò),就決定給我400萬(wàn)元資金做自營(yíng),即使是交易量也可以。10月中旬,濟(jì)南的一個(gè)朋友委托我80萬(wàn)元資金,由于自信我不會(huì)虧損,所以大話(huà)說(shuō)在前面:虧了不用我管,賺了分我20%。由于自己也確實(shí)自信,就毫不猶豫地接了過(guò)來(lái)。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  做起來(lái)才發(fā)現(xiàn)并非如此簡(jiǎn)單,我做2-5萬(wàn)元的資金的確得心應(yīng)手,甚至能一年翻兩番,但80萬(wàn)元的資金怎么會(huì)這樣別扭呢?剛上來(lái)就開(kāi)始虧損,而且?guī)缀蹙蜎](méi)有賺錢(qián)!那個(gè)400萬(wàn)元的資金更倒霉,剛開(kāi)始一周還在400萬(wàn)上盤(pán)整,有交易量沒(méi)有虧損,領(lǐng)導(dǎo)也高興,但不久就開(kāi)始突然越虧越厲害!","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  最慘重的一次虧損出現(xiàn)在1995年11月1日。那個(gè)時(shí)候,沈陽(yáng)的小基金走得比較漂亮,其中沈陽(yáng)富民從9月的不足3元漲到了5元多,當(dāng)然,這之前我是沒(méi)有買(mǎi)的。10月31日這天開(kāi)始滿(mǎn)倉(cāng)買(mǎi)進(jìn)沈陽(yáng)富民和沈陽(yáng)萬(wàn)利,這天的收盤(pán)分別是5.4元和3.50元。當(dāng)時(shí)400多萬(wàn)元資金全買(mǎi)成這兩個(gè)基金,倉(cāng)位是很重的,所以,10月31日那天晚上我就失眠了,翻來(lái)覆去地想如果上漲20%怎么辦,明天最起碼上午還是能漲的,下午出貨吧,上午可以先透支嘛,因?yàn)槭菭I(yíng)業(yè)部經(jīng)理,我可以直接報(bào)盤(pán)買(mǎi)進(jìn),沒(méi)有資金也是可以的,但當(dāng)天必須平倉(cāng)出來(lái)——后來(lái)我總結(jié)了一個(gè)經(jīng)驗(yàn):當(dāng)我失眠的時(shí)候,作出的決定必然是錯(cuò)的,因?yàn)槭チ死碇牵駝t又何以會(huì)失眠呢?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  11月1日的太陽(yáng)照舊升起。沈陽(yáng)富民開(kāi)盤(pán)5.39元,慢慢震蕩著向上走,由于沈陽(yáng)萬(wàn)利臨時(shí)停牌,我只得重倉(cāng)買(mǎi)進(jìn)富民,到中午收盤(pán)前,富民最高到了5.62元,此時(shí)我手里至少持有100萬(wàn)股了。下午開(kāi)盤(pán)連一分鐘都不到,沈陽(yáng)富民突然大幅度跳水,10分鐘之內(nèi)下跌接近20%,不久就跌帶了4.50元!沈陽(yáng)萬(wàn)利開(kāi)盤(pán)3.53元,瞬間高見(jiàn)3.90元,直線(xiàn)跌到了3元!又出現(xiàn)了透支的煩惱,我已經(jīng)沒(méi)有汗水了。幾年后看了一個(gè)傳說(shuō),說(shuō)某神童的哥哥見(jiàn)皇帝時(shí)害怕,故滿(mǎn)頭大汗,皇帝問(wèn)原由,對(duì)曰:戰(zhàn)戰(zhàn)兢兢,汗如雨下;但神童卻因不怕見(jiàn)皇帝,所以無(wú)汗,皇帝問(wèn)的時(shí)候,對(duì)曰:戰(zhàn)戰(zhàn)兢兢,汗不敢出。我那個(gè)時(shí)候是真的嚇得不敢出汗了,要計(jì)算頭寸,要決定是不是斬倉(cāng)。到最后,也只有斬倉(cāng)一條路!一刀下去,兩面挨耳光,虧損超過(guò)10%,這是一天虧損50萬(wàn)啊!10天后,沈陽(yáng)富民跌破4元,兩個(gè)月后,沈陽(yáng)萬(wàn)利跌破2元,這就是結(jié)局。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  至于當(dāng)時(shí)為什么出現(xiàn)暴跌,后來(lái)知道是一家上海的咨詢(xún)公司在聲訊臺(tái)上發(fā)布消息,說(shuō)小基金要合并,讓大家出貨。后來(lái),有關(guān)部門(mén)還處理了該公司。但作為“外地”的股民,信息的不及時(shí)總是一種劣勢(shì)。4年后,我與該公司的老總見(jiàn)面的時(shí)候,準(zhǔn)確地說(shuō)出了那一天的那一時(shí)刻的基金價(jià)格,聽(tīng)得他瞠目結(jié)舌,足見(jiàn)該事件對(duì)我的深刻影響。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  既然出現(xiàn)了虧損,我就想一定要抓緊賺回來(lái),所以,交易更加頻繁,交易量也更大,甚至去追逐一些新股。比如武漢電纜上市的時(shí)候是兩市唯一的電纜類(lèi)股票,定位很高,12元買(mǎi)進(jìn)來(lái),兩天不到就在11元拋出去,如果不拋,兩個(gè)月后就跌到了6元多。由于虧損加劇,心態(tài)越來(lái)越壞,幾乎買(mǎi)進(jìn)的所有股票都賠錢(qián)!","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  到1995年11月底,那80萬(wàn)元資金只剩下了30萬(wàn)元,虧損幅度接近60%,400萬(wàn)元資金則虧損100萬(wàn)元。當(dāng)時(shí)我的體重150斤,正好每斤值1萬(wàn)元。所以,夜里我就常想:我怎么能找個(gè)單位要我,我把自己賣(mài)了,但1斤1萬(wàn)元,有沒(méi)有人要呢?豬肉1斤才8元錢(qián)呢!妻子不了解實(shí)際情況,聽(tīng)我每天回去就嘆氣,還真的以為單位里事情多。見(jiàn)我喝酒很厲害,也無(wú)法勸阻,有一天喝醉了居然在洗手間里就睡過(guò)去了。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  最困難的時(shí)候,我在一周內(nèi)四次上泰山,冬天的泰山寂靜少人,我獨(dú)自爬到一個(gè)山坡靜坐遐想,每次都三四小時(shí)。那個(gè)時(shí)間,思緒亂飛,現(xiàn)在已不可回憶。記得最后一次剛下過(guò)雪,在一個(gè)亭子里我又見(jiàn)到了以前常見(jiàn)到一口鐘上鑄的一篇佛經(jīng)《佛說(shuō)般若波羅蜜多心經(jīng)》。平時(shí)也看,并無(wú)太大的感觸,但那一次的幾個(gè)字最終震撼了我:","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   舍利子:","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   色不異空 空不異色","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   色即是空 空即是色","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   受想行識(shí) 亦復(fù)如是","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  意思很簡(jiǎn)單:一切事物,包括思想意識(shí)其實(shí)都是空無(wú)的,但空無(wú)也是事物,所以,連空無(wú)也不要想。對(duì)我而言,猶如醍醐灌頂,突然清醒過(guò)來(lái):錢(qián),我本來(lái)就沒(méi)有,是從股市賺的,身體,我本來(lái)就沒(méi)有,是從父母受的,名利,我本就沒(méi)有,是時(shí)運(yùn)造就的,既然“本來(lái)無(wú)一物”,那又何必執(zhí)照著呢?再想想,什么虧損贏利,其實(shí)也是空的,不就是符號(hào)的變化嗎?自己去想著:我虧了,那就是虧了,自己不想它,不就是空嗎?既然空,當(dāng)然可以有?。∪绻鲜堑胗浿潛p,惦記著后果,不就把自己壓死了嗎?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  這種想法在佛教也許不入流,至多是“無(wú)色,有空”的境界,離“無(wú)空”,“無(wú)無(wú)空”的境地也許很遠(yuǎn),但對(duì)我來(lái)說(shuō)就足夠了。我從此學(xué)會(huì)了隨遇而安,學(xué)會(huì)了平靜地處理事務(wù),我為錢(qián)的盈虧而激動(dòng)的時(shí)代因此結(jié)束了。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  從此,我暫時(shí)停止操作,每天若無(wú)其事地瞞著新婚不久的妻子,每天晚上總結(jié)著自己以前的經(jīng)驗(yàn),繼續(xù)撰寫(xiě)《股市預(yù)測(cè)與實(shí)戰(zhàn)》一書(shū)。并在1995年12月完稿,1996年1月正式出版。現(xiàn)在回想,我已經(jīng)記不起來(lái)在那樣大的虧損下我怎樣能安心把書(shū)寫(xiě)完的,而且書(shū)中充滿(mǎn)著對(duì)1996年1-4月中國(guó)股市有一個(gè)歷史性大底的絕對(duì)信心——后來(lái)的實(shí)踐證明了1996年1-4月就是中國(guó)股市戰(zhàn)略筑底時(shí)期,1997年5月,上海的指數(shù)比1996年上漲近200%,深圳則上漲420%(綜合指數(shù)上漲超過(guò)500%)。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  公司的自營(yíng)資金在年底前后被領(lǐng)導(dǎo)終止操作。那80萬(wàn)元資金在1996年初變成了28萬(wàn)元,正好虧損了65%。但又是“天助我也”,1996年果然來(lái)了大行情,到1996年9月底,該帳戶(hù)的資金一度達(dá)到150萬(wàn)元,結(jié)帳的時(shí)候還保持著將近140萬(wàn)元的水平(同期上海指數(shù)漲幅80%,深圳指數(shù)漲幅150%)。結(jié)帳之后,雖然最終分給我的不多,但由于自己帳戶(hù)的資金做得也不錯(cuò),我的個(gè)人資金達(dá)到了20萬(wàn)元。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  這次操作給我的教訓(xùn)是十分豐富的:我可以做好20萬(wàn)元的資金,但絕對(duì)不會(huì)馬上就做好80萬(wàn)乃至幾百萬(wàn)的資金,必須有一個(gè)熟悉和適應(yīng)的過(guò)程;面對(duì)損失,要有自我調(diào)理的能力,應(yīng)始終保持身心的健康;把得失看得淡一點(diǎn),把榮辱看得輕一點(diǎn),平靜做人,認(rèn)真做事,總有成功的機(jī)會(huì);不要太貪心,尤其不要想一口吃個(gè)大胖子,最大的虧損總發(fā)生在最貪心的時(shí)候;謀事在人,成事在天,你能賺,能得,你有虧,有失,未必全是你自己的努力,更多的也許是天道使然,這個(gè)天道就是自然的法則,社會(huì)的秩序,人心的北向;股市中永遠(yuǎn)有機(jī)會(huì),不存在先來(lái)的后到的,大家都要先有付出才有收獲。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  更重要的是,1996年5月,我已經(jīng)感覺(jué)到了帳戶(hù)資金增減存在一定的規(guī)律,這個(gè)規(guī)律可能有助于操作的實(shí)踐。所以,在帳戶(hù)市值回到80萬(wàn)元的時(shí)候,我開(kāi)始畫(huà)資金曲線(xiàn),在帳戶(hù)市值接近160萬(wàn)元的時(shí)候果斷停止了。后來(lái),在1997年的“神光年度展望”中,神光資金曲線(xiàn)理論就首次亮相了,這套理論后來(lái)逐漸完善,終于成為深受市場(chǎng)人士重視的理論。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]}]},{"nodeName":"tr","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"td","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":";text-align:right"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"a","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":"color: rgb(192, 192, 192); text-decoration: none; line-height: 18px; letter-spacing: 1.5px; 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作者:大猛牛","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  只有找到目前大盤(pán)的熱點(diǎn),尋找強(qiáng)勢(shì)股、熱門(mén)股,才可能跑贏大勢(shì)。只要找到熱門(mén)股就可以找到強(qiáng)勢(shì)股了。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  判別是否屬于最近熱門(mén)股的有效指標(biāo)是換手率。換手率高,說(shuō)明近期有大量的資金進(jìn)出該股。流通性良好。投資者可將近期每天換手率連續(xù)超過(guò)2%的個(gè)股,列入備選對(duì)象之中,這樣大大縮小了選股范圍,再根據(jù)一些輔助規(guī)則,從高換手率個(gè)股中精選出最佳品種。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  操作中可利用以下的幾個(gè)輔助規(guī)則:?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  首先要找換手率能否維持較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的個(gè)股。若在較長(zhǎng)的一段時(shí)間內(nèi)保持較高的換手率,說(shuō)明資金進(jìn)出量大,熱度較高,一些個(gè)股僅僅有一兩天成交突然放大,其后重歸沉寂,并不說(shuō)明該股股性已轉(zhuǎn)強(qiáng)。深發(fā)展(0001)3月9日成交量柱狀圖突然躥出一根“電線(xiàn)桿”,其后很快繼續(xù)縮量,弱勢(shì)難改。而方正科技(600601)自去年12月開(kāi)始每天的換手率平均超過(guò)3%,持續(xù)性強(qiáng),增量資金源源不斷地“增援”,使該股股價(jià)水漲船高。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  其次要把走勢(shì)形態(tài)、均線(xiàn)系統(tǒng)作為輔助判斷。換手率高,有可能表明資金流入,亦有可能為資金流出。一般來(lái)說(shuō),出現(xiàn)較高的換手率的同時(shí)均線(xiàn)系統(tǒng)保持空頭排列、重心下移,表明資金從該股流出,后市以跌為主。亞盛集團(tuán)(600108)5月中旬以來(lái)每天平均換手率超過(guò)1%,股價(jià)卻一直受30日均線(xiàn)的支撐,在大盤(pán)下調(diào)過(guò)程中顯示了很好的抗跌性。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  第三從價(jià)量關(guān)系上看,一些熱門(mén)股上漲過(guò)程中保持較高的換手率,此時(shí)繼續(xù)追漲風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較大。如上海梅林(600073)自去年12月份以來(lái)的每天換手率接近2%,量?jī)r(jià)比提前發(fā)出買(mǎi)入信號(hào)。投資者可重點(diǎn)關(guān)注那些近期一直保持較高換手率,而股價(jià)漲幅較有限的個(gè)股,根據(jù)“量比價(jià)先行”的規(guī)律,在成交量先行放大后,股價(jià)通常很快跟上量的步伐,即短期換手率高,表明短期上行能量充足。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  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目前,我國(guó)深滬兩市掛牌流通的股票已達(dá)1000多家,個(gè)股分化明顯,“強(qiáng)者恒強(qiáng)、弱者恒弱”已成為目前的市場(chǎng)特點(diǎn),選股越發(fā)顯得重要。本文通過(guò)對(duì)弱市中強(qiáng)勢(shì)個(gè)股的追蹤分析,探討一種較為有效的選股思路。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    一、選股思路","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   ?。薄⒅笇?dǎo)思想","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    主力資金無(wú)論是建倉(cāng)還是出貨,總是要先于市場(chǎng)一般投資者而動(dòng),在較長(zhǎng)的調(diào)整行情的未端,往往是主力資金建倉(cāng)的大好時(shí)機(jī)。正如大鱷入水總是要濺起水花,主力加大對(duì)一只股票的資金投入或運(yùn)作力度,這只股票大多會(huì)在二級(jí)市場(chǎng)上出現(xiàn)一些異常動(dòng)向。作為普通投資者,真正能夠從市場(chǎng)表象中把握的東西通常只有兩點(diǎn):即成交量的逐漸活躍和股價(jià)的抗跌性,而股價(jià)的抗跌性是以大盤(pán)指數(shù)為參照相對(duì)而言的。正是基于上述原因,我們以個(gè)股與大盤(pán)的漲跌比較為依據(jù),在弱勢(shì)中選擇強(qiáng)勢(shì)抗跌個(gè)股,作為未來(lái)市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)強(qiáng)時(shí)的主要建倉(cāng)目標(biāo),并以此作為主要的選股指導(dǎo)思想。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   ?。?、分析方法","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    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(1)選擇99年10月28日至99年12月27日為下跌調(diào)整波段。從上證指數(shù)日K線(xiàn)分析,自上證指數(shù)從99年9月10日下調(diào)后,此波段為較明顯的下跌末期階段,歷時(shí)整整2個(gè)月。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   ?。ǎ玻┻x擇99年12月28日至2000年2月17日為上升波段。從上證日K線(xiàn)可明顯看出,進(jìn)入新年后大盤(pán)走出了明顯的上升行情。2月17日創(chuàng)出本次行情的最高點(diǎn),且此上升波段與所選擇的下跌波段在時(shí)間上也是連續(xù)相接的。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   ?。?、樣本的選擇","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    將下跌波段10月28日至12月27日這一時(shí)間段滬深兩地的個(gè)股漲幅進(jìn)行排序,選擇兩個(gè)交易市場(chǎng)漲幅前10名的股票作為弱勢(shì)中的強(qiáng)勢(shì)股,共20家。它們分別是:","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    上海:ST渤化(600874)、時(shí)裝股份(600825)、金豐投資(600606)、寧波華通(600768)、全興股份(600779)、ST石勸業(yè)(600892)、綜藝股份(600770)、上海梅林(600073)、ST東碳(600691)、方正科技(600601)","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    深圳:億安科技(0008)、古漢集團(tuán)(0590)、ST瓊能源(0502)、重慶華亞(0402)、沙隆達(dá)(0553)、陽(yáng)光股份(0608)、凱迪電力(0793)、ST寶石(0413)、六渡橋(0765)、燃?xì)夤煞荩ǎ埃罚梗常?,"nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    二、實(shí)踐表現(xiàn)追蹤分析","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   ?。薄⑾碌鴷r(shí)段強(qiáng)勢(shì)個(gè)股的表現(xiàn)情況(如表一、表二)","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   ?。?、上升行情中20家樣本股的表現(xiàn)追蹤(如表三、表四)","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    三、分析結(jié)論","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   ?。?、下跌波段強(qiáng)勢(shì)股逆勢(shì)上揚(yáng)","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    在99年10月28日至12月27日這一較為明顯的單邊下跌階段,滬深兩地指數(shù)平均跌幅為12.46%和13.98%,兩市跌幅的算術(shù)平均為13.22%,市場(chǎng)平均換手水平為25%,而在同期,我們所選擇的20家樣本股的平均升幅為24.01%,平均換手率為91.94%。以上數(shù)據(jù)表名我們選擇的樣本股在弱市中具有極強(qiáng)的強(qiáng)勢(shì)表現(xiàn),而且個(gè)股成交量的活躍程度也遠(yuǎn)高于市場(chǎng)平均水平,表明這些強(qiáng)勢(shì)個(gè)股大多受到主力資金的關(guān)照。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    2、上漲波段強(qiáng)勢(shì)股升勢(shì)強(qiáng)于大盤(pán)","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    在99年12月28日至2000年2月17日這一較明顯的上升行情中,20家樣本股大多數(shù)表現(xiàn)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)勝于大盤(pán)。其中滬市只有3只個(gè)股表現(xiàn)弱于大盤(pán),另外七只股票的漲幅遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)大盤(pán),深市漲幅弱于大盤(pán)的只有2家。兩市樣本股的平均期望收益水平達(dá)到71.46%,而同期兩市大盤(pán)的平均升幅為26.34%,為大盤(pán)的2.7倍。從換手水平看,20家樣本股平均換手率為119%,為大盤(pán)的2倍。另外,上半年市場(chǎng)大牛股如:上海梅林、億安科技、綜藝股份、陽(yáng)光股份、古漢集團(tuán)、金豐投資等都在我們的20只樣本股中。而樣本股的選擇是客觀的,是完全根據(jù)下跌時(shí)段的漲跌序得出的,因而這是一個(gè)令人振奮的發(fā)現(xiàn)。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   ?。?、從以上的分析中,我們可以初步得出以下結(jié)論","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    在大盤(pán)下跌波段選擇的20只樣本股,在后市大盤(pán)出現(xiàn)行情時(shí),總體表現(xiàn)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)優(yōu)于大盤(pán);而且出現(xiàn)了許多超級(jí)強(qiáng)勢(shì)股,市場(chǎng)的檢驗(yàn)證明了在弱勢(shì)中選擇強(qiáng)勢(shì)股這種選股思路是可行的。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    四、有關(guān)注意因素","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   ?。?、運(yùn)用的范圍","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    這種選股思路有一定的局限性,只適合于在弱市中選擇個(gè)股。我們所選擇的下跌波段歷時(shí)兩個(gè)月,事實(shí)證明,調(diào)整的時(shí)間越長(zhǎng),即最好為一段中級(jí)調(diào)整,這種方式的準(zhǔn)確性才會(huì)越高,而在平衡市或是牛市中則不適用。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   ?。病①I(mǎi)入時(shí)機(jī)的把握","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    本文只是討論買(mǎi)什么股票的問(wèn)題,而一旦選擇了一些目標(biāo)股,何時(shí)買(mǎi)入并沒(méi)有明確的說(shuō)明。根據(jù)筆者個(gè)人的經(jīng)驗(yàn),下跌波段的主要工作就是選擇股票并且進(jìn)行跟蹤觀察,不斷加以調(diào)整。在此過(guò)程中,并不適于做買(mǎi)入行動(dòng),真正的買(mǎi)入時(shí)機(jī)應(yīng)是在大盤(pán)出現(xiàn)較為明顯的轉(zhuǎn)強(qiáng)跡象以后。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  中旅信托(2000年8月14日)  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在股市中,花費(fèi)很多精力是否就一定賺錢(qián)?也就是說(shuō),在賺錢(qián)和花精力是否呈正比關(guān)系?答案當(dāng)然是否定的。因?yàn)?,賺錢(qián)和花精力這兩者未必有相關(guān)關(guān)系。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    前陣子,有人抨擊專(zhuān)做一級(jí)市場(chǎng)的人是不勞而獲。說(shuō)什么在二級(jí)市場(chǎng)上有很多人夜以繼日地研究市場(chǎng),在股市上花費(fèi)了大量的心血,最后還是賠錢(qián);而在一級(jí)市場(chǎng)上那些不勞而獲者什么腦筋也不動(dòng),卻賺了大錢(qián)。其結(jié)論是太不公平,應(yīng)該將這種特權(quán)剝奪掉。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    對(duì)一級(jí)市場(chǎng)中的不合理現(xiàn)象提出改進(jìn)意見(jiàn),這是十分有必要的。但將賺錢(qián)與在股市上花心血兩者之間扯在一起,這似乎就有點(diǎn)風(fēng)馬牛不相及,甚至有點(diǎn)偏激了。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    股市難道是只要你多看書(shū)、多聽(tīng)消息、多做功課、多研究走勢(shì),就一定能保證賺錢(qián)嗎?事實(shí)上未必如此。因?yàn)?,在股市?shí)踐中,有相當(dāng)多的股癡對(duì)市場(chǎng)癡迷到顛狂的程度,但這種人大多數(shù)賺不到錢(qián),甚至于賠錢(qián)。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    相反,在市場(chǎng)中一些人心態(tài)極其良好,每年只做一、兩波行情,低位時(shí)選一只股票買(mǎi)完了就離開(kāi)市場(chǎng),并不在乎幾角甚至于幾元錢(qián)的差價(jià),也不天天泡在市場(chǎng)中。真正做到了手中有股,心中無(wú)股。他們幾乎不在股市上花精力,平時(shí)該學(xué)習(xí)時(shí)學(xué)習(xí),該工作時(shí)工作。最后幾個(gè)月甚至于一年過(guò)去了,到股市上一看,這些股票翻了50%甚至于一倍,于是一拋了之。即使拋完后股票還在漲,也沒(méi)有心態(tài)不平衡,因?yàn)椴豢葱牟粺?。這種人實(shí)際上才是股市的贏家,而且贏得輕松,贏得自在。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    就拿專(zhuān)做一級(jí)市場(chǎng)的“搖啊搖”大軍來(lái)說(shuō),能堅(jiān)持這樣做下去也是需要有眼光的。第一要有資金實(shí)力;第二要有長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的理財(cái)眼光;第三要有耐心,才能在一級(jí)市場(chǎng)上獲得穩(wěn)定收益。從1996年到2000年,如果年年都盈利,1996年盈利是80%左右;1997年盈利是50%;1998年盈利降到40%;1999年只盈利20%;2000年上半年就盈利15%,全年估計(jì)盈利也不過(guò)25%。但算下來(lái)5年盈利4倍多,成了一支穩(wěn)定的盈利資金隊(duì)伍。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    問(wèn)題在于這樣的操作是不是屬于不勞而獲?以筆者之見(jiàn),在證券市場(chǎng)不應(yīng)該有這種以倫理的概念來(lái)衡量市場(chǎng)的觀點(diǎn),而是該看這種行為是否合法。只要行為合法,程序合法,就是賺得理所當(dāng)然。而且這一級(jí)市場(chǎng)申購(gòu)人人可以做,老少無(wú)欺。因此看見(jiàn)別人賺錢(qián)心里就不舒服,這種心態(tài)在股市中實(shí)在是太幼稚了。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    記得前幾年社會(huì)流行這樣一句口頭禪:賺錢(qián)的不吃力,吃力的不賺錢(qián)。咱們這個(gè)股市如今也不是這樣嗎?關(guān)鍵不在于吃力不吃力,關(guān)健在于要有良好的心態(tài)。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]}]},{"nodeName":"tr","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"td","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":";text-align:right"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"a","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":"color: rgb(192, 192, 192); text-decoration: none; line-height: 18px; letter-spacing: 1.5px; ;"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"工具箱","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]}]}]}]},{"nodeName":"table","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":"word-break: break-all; border-collapse: collapse; empty-cells: show; text-align: center; line-height: 23px; letter-spacing: 1.3px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); ;"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"tbody","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"tr","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"td","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":" text-align: center; line-height: 21px; letter-spacing: 1.5px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgb(201, 201, 201); margin-bottom: 3px; ;"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"a","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":"color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-decoration: none; ;"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"strong","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"·單邊上升市的再現(xiàn)及其對(duì)策 李志林","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]}]}]}]},{"nodeName":"tr","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":" line-height: 18px; letter-spacing: 1.5px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); ;;text-align:center"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"td","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"【 發(fā)布:風(fēng)語(yǔ)(臨時(shí))  2000-08-14 17:46 ?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"a","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":"color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-decoration: none; ;"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"span","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":"text-decoration:underline;;"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"多彩總匯","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]}]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"   瀏覽/回復(fù):43/0】","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]}]},{"nodeName":"tr","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"td","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":" line-height: 1.4; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); ;;text-align:left"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    ●華東師大與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展研究所 李志林(忠言)博士?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    當(dāng)我看到自7月26日滬市首次登2000點(diǎn)之后呈現(xiàn)的單邊上升市,便不由想起30年前的電影《閃閃的紅星》中令人印象深刻的“胡漢三又回來(lái)了”的對(duì)白,不免對(duì)盤(pán)面多生了幾分警覺(jué)。尤其是1997年2月-5月,885-1510點(diǎn)連續(xù)14根周陽(yáng)、80多個(gè)交易日的那段單邊上升市,似乎又“回來(lái)了”。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    一、主力為什么要做單邊上升市?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    為什么主力會(huì)從原先做的震蕩市改為做單邊上升市??","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    第一,只爭(zhēng)朝夕。從5月29日首次站在1900點(diǎn)之后,整整用了2個(gè)月時(shí)間,將流通市值換手一遍,至7月26日爬上2000點(diǎn),總共只漲了100點(diǎn)。這時(shí)候的市場(chǎng)平均持股成本始終與持股成本拉不開(kāi)距離,代價(jià)太大,效率太低。不僅絕大多數(shù)投資者不賺錢(qián),而且主力也不賺錢(qián)。如果2000點(diǎn)-2100點(diǎn)仍然是用這種方式從7月底做到9月底,時(shí)間不允許。因?yàn)?,在第四季度用股票抵押貸款的券商將面臨還貸壓力,4-6月戰(zhàn)略投資者配售的新股將出籠,國(guó)有股減持將著手進(jìn)行,二板市場(chǎng)開(kāi)張將緊鑼密鼓。所以,目前倉(cāng)位甚重的主力必須在第三季度結(jié)束前做足行情,否則,相當(dāng)多的機(jī)構(gòu)有可能在年底被套牢或粘牢。于是,人們可以看到,近期主力用單邊上升市加速行情,從2000點(diǎn)-2067點(diǎn)只用了12個(gè)交易日,估計(jì),2000-2100點(diǎn)只須1個(gè)月就足夠了。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    第二,事半功倍。由于現(xiàn)今越來(lái)越多的投資者掌握了追跌殺漲的技巧,主力做震蕩市越來(lái)越困難。你急拉,投資者非但不追漲,反而殺漲;你急跌,投資者非但不殺跌,反而追跌;你再拉,投資者就獲利了結(jié),弄得主力左右為難,籌碼越吃越多,成本越來(lái)越高。因此,唯有做單邊上升市,主力才能事半功倍,掌握主動(dòng)權(quán)。因?yàn)椋海?)每天只漲跌幾點(diǎn),出不了交易手續(xù)費(fèi),持倉(cāng)者便鎖籌惜售,減輕了大盤(pán)上行壓力。(2)每天創(chuàng)出新高,但只漲幾點(diǎn),給空倉(cāng)者進(jìn)場(chǎng)的機(jī)會(huì)。(3)指數(shù)天天上漲,漲多跌少,迫使做空者翻多,或做差價(jià)。(4)市場(chǎng)平均持股成本拾級(jí)提高,有助于增強(qiáng)市場(chǎng)的穩(wěn)定性。(5)使市場(chǎng)跟風(fēng)者如冷水中被加溫的“青蛙”,適應(yīng)高指數(shù),忘卻風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。(6)靠冷門(mén)股、落后于大盤(pán)漲幅的個(gè)股的加速發(fā)力上漲,推動(dòng)指數(shù)不斷創(chuàng)新高,有利于掩護(hù)主力在提前炒高的個(gè)股中悄悄出貨。(7)指數(shù)穩(wěn)中有漲,漲幅有限,無(wú)過(guò)度投機(jī)之嫌,不易引起政策利空。(8)單邊上升的漂亮圖型,很容易引發(fā)人們對(duì)行情高點(diǎn)的憧憬,增強(qiáng)市場(chǎng)的做多意識(shí),尤其是吸引買(mǎi)漲不買(mǎi)跌的新股民入市。(9)單邊上升市無(wú)須放巨量,可麻痹市場(chǎng)對(duì)頭部的警惕性。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    第三,用足政策。單邊上升市一經(jīng)形成,容易在主力之間達(dá)成共識(shí),故具有極大的市場(chǎng)慣性,一般性利空很難打壓下來(lái)。如1997年后2-5月的單邊上升市中,查券商違規(guī)、查透支、宣布300億擴(kuò)容額度,增加150億擴(kuò)容額度等21道黃牌警告都無(wú)濟(jì)于事。最終,是下了三類(lèi)企業(yè)、上市公司限一個(gè)月平倉(cāng)的政策重令,才有效抑制了單邊上升市。而在今年的大牛市中,擴(kuò)容不構(gòu)成利空,轉(zhuǎn)配股上市無(wú)礙大市,國(guó)有股減持也找到了良策,反倒是利好政策不斷;財(cái)務(wù)公司和金融租賃公司可以入市、社?;鹂梢匀胧?、中外合作基金成立,首家開(kāi)放式基金將于8月20日調(diào)試完畢、資產(chǎn)重組公司可放寬配股和增發(fā)新股的時(shí)限……中國(guó)股市歷史上力度罕見(jiàn)的利好政策紛紛出臺(tái),這就為主力用足政策,做單邊上升市、并盡情發(fā)揮,創(chuàng)造了極為難得的條件和機(jī)遇。那些提前炒高、獲利豐厚、急欲兌現(xiàn)的個(gè)股主力,怎能不利用單邊上升市拉高出貨?那些長(zhǎng)期臥底、吸飽籌碼的個(gè)股主力,怎能不利用單邊上升市而后發(fā)制人,橫空出世??","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    記得7月初我在《下半年股市的大局觀》一文中談到,“下半年行情重頭戲在7、8兩月,主力為了自身利益,必然會(huì)做足行情,并會(huì)有利好政策配合?!毖矍鞍l(fā)生的單邊上升市,似乎正印證了這一預(yù)言。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    二、如何應(yīng)對(duì)單邊上升市??","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    拙作《走近贏家》中,專(zhuān)有一節(jié)論述單邊上升市,并以為,應(yīng)對(duì)單邊上升市比單邊下跌市相對(duì)容易。值此,就當(dāng)前的市況,談一點(diǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)單邊上升市的策略。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    1、對(duì)于今年大盤(pán)指數(shù)的高點(diǎn),應(yīng)有恰當(dāng)?shù)脑u(píng)估,不能因單邊上升和輿論火爆而隨意調(diào)高期望值。一般而言,將去年的1756最高點(diǎn)乘以120%,是比較切合實(shí)際的,至多再慣性沖高5%,足矣。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    2、以平常心對(duì)待自己的今年收益。若年初制定的贏利目標(biāo)是30%,且已實(shí)現(xiàn),就可逐步兌現(xiàn);若目標(biāo)是50%,即與大盤(pán)漲幅相當(dāng),且已實(shí)現(xiàn),亦應(yīng)理所當(dāng)然地了結(jié);若你的收益已超過(guò)了大盤(pán)漲幅,更應(yīng)盡快把勝利成果拿到手。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    3、警惕大盤(pán)靠拉指數(shù)股改變角度,加速放巨量上揚(yáng)。若第二天前半小時(shí)上漲時(shí)成交量超不過(guò)前日巨量的1/8,或下跌時(shí)成交量超過(guò)前日的1/8,或指標(biāo)在高位連續(xù)純化、乖離率過(guò)大、市場(chǎng)狂熱口號(hào)滿(mǎn)天飛,高臺(tái)跳水的個(gè)股增多,指數(shù)漲,但跌的個(gè)股經(jīng)常比漲的多,便是調(diào)整信號(hào),應(yīng)盡可能減磅。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    4、拒斥放量筑頭部的個(gè)股。對(duì)于上半年超過(guò)大盤(pán)漲幅,甚至漲1-2倍的415只股票,以及已明顯放量筑頭回落的個(gè)股,原則上應(yīng)加以拒斥。哪怕有人拼命推薦,也不搶反彈,不做差價(jià),并利用反彈堅(jiān)決派發(fā),謹(jǐn)防主力利用大盤(pán)單邊上升時(shí)在這類(lèi)個(gè)股中壓低出貨或跳水出貨。這樣,主力就無(wú)計(jì)可施,找不到接盤(pán)者,只能被迫延長(zhǎng)行情。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    5、關(guān)注至今落后于大盤(pán)漲幅、于底部平臺(tái)向上突破的個(gè)股,這往往是后入市主力的“杰作”:即在大盤(pán)上漲700多點(diǎn)的情況下,至今仍將它們壓在1500-1600點(diǎn)的水平上。這些冷門(mén)股便是大盤(pán)走單邊上升市的推動(dòng)者,是牛市輪漲的砝碼。其中,爆出黑馬的概率較大。在單邊上升市中,可考慮將高位強(qiáng)勢(shì)股換成這類(lèi)低位弱勢(shì)股(盤(pán)子是盡可能小些),少做差價(jià),以靜制動(dòng),直至拉至高位放巨量,媒介一致推薦,利好不斷,才果斷了結(jié)。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    6、對(duì)重大利好兌現(xiàn),多一點(diǎn)反向思維。諸如宣布社?;?、中外合作基金、開(kāi)放式基金實(shí)施入市,主力往往會(huì)見(jiàn)利好大肆出貨。一是因?yàn)榇藭r(shí)人氣最旺,接盤(pán)最多。二是因?yàn)檫@類(lèi)資金也是為利而來(lái),不可能充當(dāng)解放軍,而只能充當(dāng)深幅調(diào)整后的護(hù)盤(pán)者和獲利者。故對(duì)這類(lèi)利好兌現(xiàn)后的效應(yīng),不能估計(jì)過(guò)高。?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"    我以為,在上述7點(diǎn)中,最重要的是平常心??梢哉f(shuō),對(duì)付單邊上升市,最有效的武器也就是平常心。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]}]},{"nodeName":"tr","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"td","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":";text-align:right"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"a","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":"color: rgb(192, 192, 192); text-decoration: none; line-height: 18px; letter-spacing: 1.5px; ;"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"工具箱","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  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;"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"a","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":"color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-decoration: none; ;"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"strong","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"·近期操盤(pán)心得。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]}]}]}]},{"nodeName":"tr","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":" line-height: 18px; letter-spacing: 1.5px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); ;;text-align:center"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"td","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"【 發(fā)布:jinze  2000-08-15 00:09 ?","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"a","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":"color: rgb(0, 0, 0); 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在形態(tài)看好時(shí)賣(mài)出,形態(tài)看空時(shí)買(mǎi)進(jìn)。特別是前期放量后縮量回調(diào)的股票最值得關(guān)注。","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"br","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]}]},{"nodeName":"tr","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"td","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":";text-align:right"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"a","nodeValue":null,"nodeType":"1","display":"block","nodeAttrs":[{"attrName":"style","attrValue":"color: rgb(192, 192, 192); text-decoration: none; line-height: 18px; letter-spacing: 1.5px; ;"}],"childNodes":[{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"工具箱","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]},{"nodeName":"text","nodeValue":"  ","nodeType":"3","display":"inline","nodeAttrs":[],"childNodes":[]}]}]}]}]}]}]},"imageUrls":[],"text":"·一個(gè)買(mǎi)入信號(hào):連收小陽(yáng)線(xiàn)【 發(fā)布:散戶(hù)(臨時(shí))  2000-08-11 17:21  該種情形在不同股價(jià)區(qū)域出現(xiàn)代表不盡相同的信號(hào),出現(xiàn)在長(zhǎng)期下跌后的低價(jià)區(qū)域,是一個(gè)中線(xiàn)買(mǎi)入信號(hào),出現(xiàn)在中價(jià)區(qū)域或高價(jià)區(qū)域,是一個(gè)短線(xiàn)買(mǎi)入信號(hào),此時(shí)投資者宜快進(jìn)快出?!     √卣骷俺梢颉     ?、出現(xiàn)在低價(jià)區(qū):股價(jià)在長(zhǎng)期下跌之后,連續(xù)收出小陽(yáng)線(xiàn),同時(shí)成交量溫和放大,意味著股價(jià)已探底成功,多方正逐步積蓄能量準(zhǔn)備反攻。從另一個(gè)角度講,很可能是某些主力資金在悄悄逢低建倉(cāng)。因此,該信號(hào)出現(xiàn)后,未來(lái)股價(jià)有很大機(jī)會(huì)走出一波中級(jí)上升行情。      2、出現(xiàn)在中價(jià)區(qū)或高價(jià)區(qū):股價(jià)在到達(dá)一定高位之后,經(jīng)過(guò)一段時(shí)間的換手洗盤(pán),拋壓已逐漸減輕,此時(shí)如果連續(xù)出現(xiàn)小陽(yáng)線(xiàn),伴隨成交量逐步放大,通常預(yù)示著多方將發(fā)起一輪強(qiáng)攻,大幅拉升在即。      舉例說(shuō)明      例1:創(chuàng)智科技(0787)      99年12月28日至2000年1月10日,日K線(xiàn)連續(xù)收出8根小陽(yáng)線(xiàn),同時(shí)成交量溫和放大。此后股價(jià)開(kāi)始大幅拉升,至3月14日最高上摸45元,兩個(gè)月左右股價(jià)升幅近一倍。      例2:蘭花科創(chuàng)(600123)      99年12月28日至2000年1月5日日K線(xiàn)連續(xù)收出5根小陽(yáng)線(xiàn),此后放量攀升。自1月5日最低價(jià)8.15元算起,至2月17日最高19.58元,1個(gè)多月股價(jià)升幅達(dá)140%?!     ∫陨蟽蓚€(gè)例子中,“連收小陽(yáng)線(xiàn)”形態(tài)均出現(xiàn)在長(zhǎng)期下跌后的低價(jià)區(qū)域,所以是一個(gè)中線(xiàn)買(mǎi)入信號(hào)?!     ∽⒁馐马?xiàng)      1、日K線(xiàn)最少要連續(xù)三天收出小陽(yáng)線(xiàn),若能達(dá)到五天甚至更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間,則信號(hào)更為可靠;    2、每日收盤(pán)價(jià)最好要接近當(dāng)日最高價(jià);    3、成交量放大要溫和,并且要有一定規(guī)律;    4、若在中價(jià)區(qū)或高價(jià)區(qū)出現(xiàn),要視為短線(xiàn)信號(hào),快進(jìn)快出,以免高位套牢?! 」ぞ呦洹  こ醋鲬賽?ài)股市--------選股票和選男人【 發(fā)布:轉(zhuǎn)貼(臨時(shí))  2000-08-12 00:36 ?多彩總匯   瀏覽/回復(fù):54/0】  你不得不承認(rèn),炒股與戀愛(ài)有很多相通之處,比如它們都是充滿(mǎn)了無(wú)數(shù)選擇和變數(shù),可以讓你狂喜也可以帶來(lái)大悲,都需要投入時(shí)間、精力和一些運(yùn)氣,都會(huì)有高潮有停滯有低谷……對(duì)于女孩來(lái)說(shuō),也許炒作戀愛(ài)股市比在真正的股市搏殺更會(huì)興致勃勃?! ?    戀愛(ài)股市上,不同類(lèi)型的男人就是不同類(lèi)型的股票,關(guān)鍵是選股,是否選對(duì)股票,成功得失已決定了大半?! ?    績(jī)優(yōu)股?    基本業(yè)績(jī):歲入十萬(wàn)元以上。三室二廳的房子已在分期付款中,副業(yè)也頗具令人刮目相看的實(shí)力。目前他上下班的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)交通工具是私家車(chē)或出租車(chē);長(zhǎng)城卡上的活期錢(qián)額總夠一次心血來(lái)潮的浪漫遠(yuǎn)行。他們的感情往往不如他們收入那樣殷實(shí)可靠,在他們的周遭,有形形色色的“彩蝶”在飛舞。據(jù)不可靠的統(tǒng)計(jì),他們中的三分之二是MBA(工商管理碩士)而自我感覺(jué)又莫名其妙地過(guò)于良好。?    優(yōu)點(diǎn):有錢(qián)總是好事情。缺點(diǎn):感覺(jué)太好容易出事哦!  ?    選股策略:吊藍(lán)頭,吊到最好,吊不到就拉倒。?    潛力股?    基本業(yè)績(jī):一人吃餓,令全家不餓。他們苦拼過(guò)赴美通行證,或埋頭于電腦與證券之間進(jìn)行著數(shù)字化的溝通;八塊錢(qián)一杯的茶坊里常常傳出他們的爭(zhēng)執(zhí);某個(gè)處級(jí)單位第三梯隊(duì)的后備名單上,可能列著他們的大名。囊中羞澀是現(xiàn)在進(jìn)行時(shí),而某一方面的特長(zhǎng)又往往令他們想入非非。他們中的一部分在與戀人分享挫折與成功的每一步后,最終會(huì)上升為業(yè)績(jī)優(yōu)股,?  而另一部分在三十后年只能靠回憶打發(fā)時(shí)光?! ?    優(yōu)點(diǎn):一起走過(guò)清貧到富足,想想都醉人。缺點(diǎn):就怕他一輩子都是潛力股?! ?    選股策略:對(duì)他們的炒一定要“穩(wěn)、準(zhǔn)、狠”。?    網(wǎng)絡(luò)股?    基本業(yè)績(jī):說(shuō)不清,摸不透。屬于浪漫主義者一類(lèi),他們可以一次送你99朵玫瑰,也可以關(guān)掉拷機(jī)不接電話(huà),一周內(nèi)搬家三次為的是逃避債主或情人。他們的承諾往往落空,他們的甜言蜜語(yǔ)卻所向披靡,大起大落是他們的性格,若即若離總透出神秘感。他們最大的特點(diǎn)就是不太可靠?! ?    優(yōu)點(diǎn):激情爛漫都是年輕惹的禍。缺點(diǎn):炫了!?    選股策略:一帆風(fēng)順的時(shí)候搭搭他的船吧,只是別忘了下來(lái)?! ?    垃圾股?    基本業(yè)績(jī):很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間來(lái),他們最大的關(guān)注就是自己風(fēng)雨飄搖的飯碗,他們的身影常常出現(xiàn)在路燈下打牌下棋的桌子邊,或者某個(gè)三流影院的通宵場(chǎng)中。他們對(duì)異性的美好向往常常通過(guò)富有激情的“國(guó)罵”奔涌而泄,他們?cè)诟叻鍟r(shí)段的公交車(chē)上用曖昧的身體接觸獵取著片刻驚喜。他們中的另一部分已義無(wú)返顧地吃起了軟飯:凌晨徘徊在房門(mén)外接自己掙小費(fèi)?  的女人回家;在老女人之間精疲力竭地周旋……?    優(yōu)點(diǎn):讓你貼近真實(shí)的生活。缺點(diǎn):往往是要什么沒(méi)什么?! ?    選股策略:快快割肉清倉(cāng),否則被套的是一輩子?! ?    ST股?    基本業(yè)績(jī):入不敷出已經(jīng)多年。他們剛剛大學(xué)或研究生畢業(yè)正在四面出擊尋找飯碗;或因?yàn)榉N種原因離開(kāi)了壓抑的工作卻又未能搞起自己的事業(yè);而更多的是從來(lái)就不曾有過(guò)固定收入,放眼未來(lái)一片慘淡。他們共同的特點(diǎn)是兩手空空,但兩年內(nèi)卻有可能是天壤之別;有的被強(qiáng)莊入主,資產(chǎn)被徹底地置換,另一些則會(huì)在三年沉淪后墜入PT股,甚至步入監(jiān)牢在人?  生舞臺(tái)上被“摘牌”?! ?    優(yōu)點(diǎn):優(yōu)點(diǎn)和缺點(diǎn)很鮮明。缺點(diǎn):知道了你就沒(méi)勁了?! ?    選股策略:風(fēng)險(xiǎn)太大,摸清底細(xì)方可與之共舞。?    三無(wú)概念股?    基本業(yè)績(jī):富有成熟男人魅力。也許昨天他才拿著離婚判決書(shū)走出法庭;也許他剛剛拋妻別子從美國(guó)回到國(guó)內(nèi)發(fā)展;也許他從來(lái)就未曾打算過(guò)結(jié)婚。他們通過(guò)想像或者經(jīng)歷決然告別了婚姻,“想過(guò)一段單身的日子”是他們共同的借口?! ?    優(yōu)點(diǎn):成熟得令人無(wú)法抗拒。缺點(diǎn):你會(huì)是他的最后一任太太嗎?  ?    選股策略:可以買(mǎi)點(diǎn)玩玩,不宜長(zhǎng)期持有。工具箱  ·新股上市首日的“黃金之點(diǎn)”和“死亡之點(diǎn)”( 非常精彩【 發(fā)布:呵呵。。(臨時(shí))  2000-08-13 12:10 ?多彩總匯   瀏覽/回復(fù):52/0】  ●馬國(guó)勝?    在新股上市首日的操作中,有五個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)位置是非常重要的,分別是上午的9:30、9:40、10:00、10:30和下午的13:10。從經(jīng)驗(yàn)上說(shuō),全日的最低點(diǎn)和相對(duì)低點(diǎn)常常出現(xiàn)在這幾個(gè)時(shí)間位置附近。而且,把這幾個(gè)時(shí)間位置用于觀察主力動(dòng)向也常常顯得意義非常。?    在新股首日的操作中,筆者更注重9:40的“黃金之點(diǎn)”和13:10可能出現(xiàn)的“死亡之點(diǎn)”。?    首先看看上午9:40分的情況。在9:40之前的10分鐘交易時(shí)間里,部分原始股東急于變現(xiàn),嘗試“坐莊”的主力試圖吸籌,這時(shí)的新股經(jīng)歷上市后成交最為密集的10分鐘時(shí)間,之后成交量逐步萎縮。密集的成交量往往把主力的動(dòng)向表露無(wú)遺。同時(shí),開(kāi)盤(pán)10分鐘的走勢(shì)也常常成為對(duì)開(kāi)盤(pán)相對(duì)較高定價(jià)的一種修復(fù),大約有近10%的新股在9:40的價(jià)格將成為一段時(shí)間內(nèi)的最低價(jià)格,如最近上市的上市的廣匯股份。?    如果在新股上市首日的9:40,盤(pán)中走勢(shì)符合下列條件,則應(yīng)該考慮買(mǎi)入。?    1、開(kāi)盤(pán)換手率不低于5%。一般認(rèn)為,如果開(kāi)盤(pán)換手率超過(guò)5%,就應(yīng)當(dāng)認(rèn)為有市場(chǎng)主力進(jìn)駐。當(dāng)然,對(duì)于一些高市值的新股,開(kāi)盤(pán)換手率接近5%也可大致判斷有主力進(jìn)駐。?    2、當(dāng)前換手率應(yīng)接近和超過(guò)10%。在一只新股在上市首日買(mǎi)入,能夠在短期內(nèi)取得較好收益,則其首日換手率至少應(yīng)超過(guò)65%。把這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)簡(jiǎn)單拆分一下,考慮到新股首日開(kāi)盤(pán)后成交量逐步減少的因素,則其早市換手率應(yīng)高于45%,其第一小時(shí)換手率應(yīng)高于30%,其開(kāi)盤(pán)10分鐘換手率應(yīng)高于10%。    3、當(dāng)前價(jià)格應(yīng)處于一個(gè)相對(duì)可以接受的區(qū)域之內(nèi)。這是為了回避新股定價(jià)過(guò)高帶來(lái)的不必要市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。?    4、外盤(pán)應(yīng)高于內(nèi)盤(pán)。外盤(pán)是累計(jì)主動(dòng)性買(mǎi)盤(pán),內(nèi)盤(pán)是累計(jì)主動(dòng)性賣(mài)盤(pán)。由于主力可以“做盤(pán)”,即通過(guò)刻意“掛單子”買(mǎi)入或賣(mài)出影響內(nèi)外盤(pán)的數(shù)值,所以我們平時(shí)看盤(pán)掌握到的內(nèi)、外盤(pán)數(shù)值實(shí)際意義并不大。而在新股剛剛上市的時(shí)候,現(xiàn)行的新股發(fā)行方法造成市場(chǎng)原始籌碼分散,加上T+1的交易規(guī)則,使得主力不可能在10分鐘極度密集的成交之下實(shí)施“做盤(pán)”行為。在密集的成交量下,任何大的買(mǎi)單和賣(mài)單將很容易得被吞掉。如青島堿業(yè)上市首日9:40接近全日最低點(diǎn),此時(shí)的買(mǎi)盤(pán)是內(nèi)盤(pán)的2倍,在這個(gè)位置買(mǎi)入,當(dāng)日最高收益竟超過(guò)30%!?    讓我們?cè)倏纯聪挛?3:10的情況。當(dāng)任何市場(chǎng)主力企圖在新股上“坐莊”,必須收集到足夠的“籌碼”。但因各種因素,如盤(pán)中有兩個(gè)以上的主力在吸籌或原始股東惜售等,使得該主力無(wú)法在合適的價(jià)位買(mǎi)到預(yù)期數(shù)量的“貨”,則該主力通常的做法是放棄吸籌,甚至伺機(jī)做空、打壓股價(jià),以便在更低的位置繼續(xù)吸籌。主力花費(fèi)一上午的時(shí)間吸籌后,往往利用中午休市的時(shí)間盤(pán)點(diǎn)籌碼,如發(fā)覺(jué)手中籌碼不足而決定放棄或利用手中籌碼做空13:10就成為“死亡之點(diǎn)”,后市走向不容樂(lè)觀。例如最近上市的“春暉股份”,首日早市走勢(shì)相對(duì)較好,盤(pán)中有主力吸籌的跡象,但在13:10成為“死亡之點(diǎn)”,其后股價(jià)變一路走低。反之,如13:10沒(méi)有成為“死亡之點(diǎn)”,而股價(jià)走勢(shì)又較為強(qiáng)勁者,則意味著主力仍在吸收籌碼,一般情況下,首日的吸籌將在下午14:00以后進(jìn)入尾聲,一些快節(jié)奏的主力常常在尾市即開(kāi)始拉升股價(jià),投資者應(yīng)考慮擇機(jī)買(mǎi)入。?  工具箱  ·莊 家 獨(dú) 白【 發(fā)布:我是莊家(臨時(shí))  2000-08-13 12:20 ?多彩總匯   瀏覽/回復(fù):114/0】  莊 家 獨(dú) 白?      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------?      我是主力,做莊。散戶(hù)是敵人還是朋友?二者兼有。我愛(ài)他們,就象我滿(mǎn)足于我心靈所有渺小的東西,我對(duì)他們的不幸懷有一種快意的竊喜。別拿道德來(lái)約束我,良心是最靠不住的向?qū)В驗(yàn)樗怯蓛簳r(shí)所得到的訓(xùn)導(dǎo)的模糊回憶構(gòu)成的,所以它決不會(huì)比它的保姆更高明。事實(shí)上,每個(gè)人都在瘋狂地追求“安全”,并以制服潛在的敵人為達(dá)到目的。?      我雖身無(wú)分文,卻由于背靠大樹(shù)而腰纏萬(wàn)貫,我以市場(chǎng)為天堂,通過(guò)各種手法影響甚至操縱股價(jià)的上落,以圖超額利潤(rùn)。我們這一族里又分為短莊、中線(xiàn)莊和長(zhǎng)莊等等,我主要是中線(xiàn)莊家,我玩散戶(hù)于股掌的方法很簡(jiǎn)單,那就是選股、試盤(pán)、吸籌、洗盤(pán)、拉升、派發(fā)。?      這其中,“選股”最為費(fèi)時(shí)費(fèi)力。不過(guò)我們這群人里智士較多,信息網(wǎng)絡(luò)發(fā)達(dá),對(duì)公司經(jīng)營(yíng)狀況、題材等等了解全面,常得到上市公司的默許配合。我選些什么股:?      1、資金面選股:現(xiàn)在做莊真難,主要還是資金問(wèn)題。因此,如果資金量較大,我將選擇多個(gè)股票做莊,當(dāng)然這多個(gè)股票最好是有內(nèi)在聯(lián)系的,能構(gòu)成板塊,形成市場(chǎng)板塊聯(lián)動(dòng)。?      2、政策面選股:小平同志說(shuō)過(guò):“不要管'姓資’、'姓社’,要'信黨’。”黨的話(huà)決不是隨便說(shuō)說(shuō)而已,我堅(jiān)決相信因而從不跟黨叫板。我選擇國(guó)家產(chǎn)業(yè)政策扶持,有可能成為市場(chǎng)熱點(diǎn)的股票,優(yōu)點(diǎn)是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較小。?      3、上市公司基本面選股?     ?。?)績(jī)優(yōu)股:上市公司業(yè)績(jī)優(yōu)良,市場(chǎng)屬性良好。這樣我在拉抬與派發(fā)時(shí)才容易。不過(guò),這種票籌碼鎖定太過(guò)分散,持倉(cāng)者心態(tài)穩(wěn)建而不活躍,因此總是讓我吸不到足夠的籌碼。因此這種票,我倉(cāng)位絕不會(huì)過(guò)重,拉升幅度也有限。?     ?。?)業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鲩L(zhǎng)型:業(yè)績(jī)有空大幅增長(zhǎng),或每年都有較大幅度增長(zhǎng)(高成長(zhǎng)),這種票風(fēng)險(xiǎn)小,利潤(rùn)大,每年我必做一波。?     ?。?)題材型:朦朧才有空間,一只票只有題材不斷我才能借題發(fā)揮,充分利用市場(chǎng)跟風(fēng)效應(yīng),使自己順利做莊,獲取厚利。?      4、從市場(chǎng)本身選股?     ?。?)超跌低價(jià)股:股價(jià)連續(xù)下挫,處于超跌,股價(jià)嚴(yán)重偏低。這種票最大的特點(diǎn)就是介入的成本較低,因此后期我拉他1、2倍價(jià)格仍然不很高,市場(chǎng)容易接受。?     ?。?)冷門(mén)股:有時(shí)我也運(yùn)用“相反理論”,玩玩冷門(mén),別小看這冷門(mén),這些股可以令我輕松吸到足夠的低廉的籌碼。而真正的黑馬,往往產(chǎn)生于題材股、超低價(jià)股和冷門(mén)股。?     ?。?)熱門(mén)股:這種股市場(chǎng)屬性好,股民群眾基礎(chǔ)好,易于做思想工作。因此易于我拉升和派發(fā)。不過(guò),我的成本總是太高,一般是炒作中途換莊得來(lái)的,因而倉(cāng)位不會(huì)太重。我會(huì)擇機(jī)選擇不同類(lèi)型的股票附以適當(dāng)?shù)臅r(shí)機(jī)。通常我會(huì)選擇在年初或年末,圍繞次新、績(jī)優(yōu)含權(quán)股玩他一波。等到中報(bào)、年報(bào)出盡再玩一波超跌低價(jià)股。而政策概念股、題材股……我時(shí)時(shí)都可能介入,并將之做成階段性的炒作熱點(diǎn)。當(dāng)然,一切都不能定死了,我也得看看大市。上升市道,我以績(jī)優(yōu)股、含權(quán)股為重點(diǎn),這時(shí)候我資金充足,高價(jià)股炒作猛烈;下跌市道,我撥弄兩下強(qiáng)莊股、超跌股;盤(pán)整市道,我就以階段性熱門(mén)股為對(duì)象,這兒一下,那兒一下。?      總之我是隨著市場(chǎng)狀況變幻而不斷變幻自己的狀況。你散戶(hù)想跟我玩什么貓膩,妄想!?    工具箱  ·新股短炒五法【 發(fā)布:海融資訊 (臨時(shí))  2000-08-13 12:32 ?多彩總匯   瀏覽/回復(fù):72/0】  (轉(zhuǎn)帖)投資技巧:新股短炒五法?      在確認(rèn)新股炒作機(jī)會(huì)存在后,參與二級(jí)市場(chǎng)新股的炒作,有一些競(jìng)價(jià)方法與技巧可以利用。?      一、從成交量看走勢(shì)開(kāi)盤(pán)成交量。?      新股開(kāi)盤(pán)成交量的大小是觀察二級(jí)市場(chǎng)主力是否介入的最早信號(hào)。據(jù)經(jīng)驗(yàn)統(tǒng)計(jì),開(kāi)盤(pán)競(jìng)價(jià)成交量達(dá)到上市新股流通總股本的5%以上,并且開(kāi)盤(pán)價(jià)偏高時(shí)(過(guò)高或偏低均不利于支持判斷),可認(rèn)為有主力參與接盤(pán),后市炒作看好。新股開(kāi)盤(pán)價(jià)并不偏低,但開(kāi)盤(pán)成交量明顯偏小,則為一級(jí)市場(chǎng)持股人嚴(yán)重惜售,如果新股為中、小盤(pán)股,很可能有主力在其中操盤(pán),后市亦應(yīng)看好。?      二、首日換手率。?      新股上市首日流通股換手率在70%以上,表明接盤(pán)蜂擁,后市看漲。但成交量放巨量表明大批散戶(hù),其中包括一批幾十萬(wàn)到一百萬(wàn)元水平的小機(jī)構(gòu)的參與,他們炒作動(dòng)機(jī)無(wú)一例外地屬短線(xiàn)投機(jī),一有差價(jià)就會(huì)趁熱拋出,因此后市漲幅不會(huì)太大,持續(xù)時(shí)間也較短,如果在新股上市日后買(mǎi)入,第二天可根據(jù)換手率的高低(可根據(jù)單位時(shí)間的成交量推算全天成交量并換算成換手率,保持前日水平為佳)和價(jià)格上升的力度,來(lái)決定當(dāng)日是否拋出和什么時(shí)候拋出,此法可延續(xù)到第三天,除非人氣特別旺盛,否則不宜過(guò)久地往后拖延。首日換手率偏小,后市價(jià)格可能下跌,也可能有一可觀的升幅,需多方位分析后再加判斷。?      三、從價(jià)格形態(tài)看走勢(shì)。?      新股上市首日的價(jià)格走勢(shì)常見(jiàn)以下形態(tài):高開(kāi)低走,多為出貨行情,不宜介入;高開(kāi)平走,多形成振蕩出貨行情,早期可用少量資金低吸高拋?zhàn)鞒叹€(xiàn);低開(kāi)高走、平開(kāi)高走或偏高開(kāi)高走,后市常有一段較好行情。?      四、開(kāi)盤(pán)價(jià)位的高低判斷是形態(tài)分析的關(guān)鍵。?      可考慮以新股的理論市價(jià)為平開(kāi)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),低于此價(jià)為低開(kāi),高于此價(jià)約30%為高開(kāi)。原始股東的持股成本可作為超短線(xiàn)炒作的價(jià)位判斷依據(jù),在持股成本附近的開(kāi)盤(pán)價(jià)為平開(kāi),在此價(jià)位不會(huì)形成拋盤(pán)涌出局面,因而有利于短線(xiàn)炒作。成本標(biāo)準(zhǔn)在投機(jī)熱火的市場(chǎng)較為實(shí)用。?      五、因市、因勢(shì)制宜不同市場(chǎng)、不同市況炒作新股應(yīng)有不同的策略。?      上海股市有惡炒之習(xí)慣,新股炒作常常不認(rèn)價(jià)位,只講差價(jià),只要人氣在,新股即便高開(kāi),仍可能被炒到一個(gè)很高的水平。如\"東方明珠\"、\"天津渤海\"高開(kāi)后不幾天即被炒到令人瞠目結(jié)舌之價(jià)位,\"界龍實(shí)業(yè)\"連續(xù)多日拉陽(yáng)線(xiàn),讓人高處不覺(jué)寒。?      因此上海新股上市,如果看準(zhǔn)了會(huì)有一場(chǎng)好炒,則不可用平日眼光進(jìn)行選股和決定買(mǎi)賣(mài),新股開(kāi)盤(pán)在同類(lèi)老股價(jià)位就可算低開(kāi),高于同類(lèi)老股亦可能大有潛力。參與此類(lèi)非常性投機(jī),必須審清大勢(shì)和新股炒作周期所處的階段,并嚴(yán)格遵循快進(jìn)快出的原則。?      在深圳股市,炒新股的最大機(jī)會(huì)往往在大市深跌探底之時(shí)。此時(shí)上市新股往往隨大市下跌,由于無(wú)層層套牢籌碼支撐,由低成本原始股形成的拋壓、主力打壓吸籌以及開(kāi)盤(pán)比價(jià)不會(huì)低等原因,其下跌幅度常超過(guò)老股,價(jià)位被低估。因此,在深圳跌市中,剛上市的新股不宜購(gòu)進(jìn),可耐心觀看其價(jià)格下跌,一旦大市出現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)同時(shí)新股本身止跌回穩(wěn),則可及時(shí)入貨炒作?    ?        工具箱  ·炒股,理念很重要【 發(fā)布:青近軍 (臨時(shí))  2000-08-13 17:26 ?多彩總匯   瀏覽/回復(fù):98/0】  所謂理念,就是指做一件事時(shí)人們所具有的理智與信念。這之中,含有做事中的哲理,做事中的“分寸”或“度”的觀念,含有戰(zhàn)略性思考的意義。?    只就事論事,不研究事物本質(zhì);只見(jiàn)樹(shù)木,不見(jiàn)森林;只想愿望,不正視現(xiàn)實(shí);等等。這類(lèi)形而上學(xué)的思維毛病,幾乎經(jīng)??梢?jiàn)到,而在股市操作中,股民們對(duì)此的顯露更是充份:?    只想憑所謂“消息”輕松炒股賺大錢(qián),而不愿正視股市的種種風(fēng)險(xiǎn),不愿下氣力學(xué)習(xí)炒股方法與技巧;只偏愛(ài)上市公司基本面,不能正視業(yè)績(jī)只是股價(jià)漲跌諸多因素之一;只祈望自己運(yùn)氣好,眼巴巴只盼望手中的股票價(jià)格快漲,而不能正視擺在眼前已顯露的風(fēng)險(xiǎn);學(xué)習(xí)了一、二種炒股方法或技巧,就以為自己從此可在股市打天下賺大錢(qián),殊不知個(gè)人的心理素質(zhì)有時(shí)是勝敗關(guān)鍵;等等。?    在股市中遭受虧損的人們,不是認(rèn)為自己“運(yùn)氣”不好,就是以為自己操作技術(shù)不行(可你若同他討論他那些操作技巧,他又會(huì)講得頭頭是道),或干脆很困惑:我這套操作方法與某某高手大師一模一樣,為何他們可賺錢(qián),我卻只虧本??  他們中很少有人撿討自己的操作理念。?    在一場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)役中,戰(zhàn)士們很勇敢,指揮員指揮也得當(dāng),但,仗還是打敗了。(例如,當(dāng)年中央蘇區(qū)紅軍“拒敵于國(guó)門(mén)之外”的戰(zhàn)略,致使?fàn)奚四敲炊鄳?zhàn)士,卻仍戰(zhàn)敗被迫去長(zhǎng)征)這是為什么??  是由于對(duì)這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)役的總體戰(zhàn)略錯(cuò)了。戰(zhàn)略錯(cuò)了,戰(zhàn)術(shù)再正確也不會(huì)有實(shí)質(zhì)的利好意義。?  操盤(pán)理念,就是炒股戰(zhàn)法中的戰(zhàn)略性質(zhì)的東西。?    理念若錯(cuò)了,你方法技巧再好,也無(wú)濟(jì)于事,也難以?shī)Z取炒股的持久勝利;?  而正確的理念,則可以幫助你去正確運(yùn)用自己已掌握的操盤(pán)方法與技巧,能幫助你在股市中遠(yuǎn)離失敗,而使你能波浪不驚地長(zhǎng)久穩(wěn)定持續(xù)地在股市中只贏不虧,或大贏小虧。?  操盤(pán)理念就象是股市操作的“牛鼻子”,我們?nèi)魻孔×怂?,也就可牽?dòng)整只牛,可以牽動(dòng)我們走向成功!?  工具箱  ·什么樣的人選擇什么樣的股【 發(fā)布:j臭匹匠 (臨時(shí))  2000-08-13 17:28 ?多彩總匯   瀏覽/回復(fù):71/0】  (轉(zhuǎn)帖)猴子掰玉米的故事是人們?cè)偈煜げ贿^(guò)了的,在故事中,那猴子掰一個(gè)夾一個(gè),夾一個(gè)漏一個(gè),最終掰盡了地里的全部玉米,也只能是拿著四個(gè)玉米離開(kāi)了而給人們留下笑柄,但是要是從選擇玉米的角度來(lái)說(shuō)那猴子其實(shí)是沒(méi)有錯(cuò)的。這正如股民進(jìn)入股市炒股一樣,首先面臨的就是選擇股票的問(wèn)題,總不能隨意地抓幾只股票就建倉(cāng)吧??  事實(shí)也確實(shí)如此,選擇股票的重要性是每個(gè)股民都知道的。一只好的股票它常常會(huì)給股民帶給意想不到的收益,相反選錯(cuò)了個(gè)股的時(shí)候,那股票又會(huì)使它的持有者承受著巨大的損失??梢哉f(shuō),進(jìn)入股市中的股民人人都希望選擇到幾只好股,人人又都想回避那些可能使自己招致投資虧損的股票。但是同樣一支股票在不同時(shí)期對(duì)不同的投資者來(lái)說(shuō),它的好壞標(biāo)準(zhǔn)其實(shí)是不相同的,它可能會(huì)使某些股民們賺錢(qián),但同時(shí)又可能使另一部分股民虧本,因此對(duì)于股民來(lái)說(shuō),最重要的一點(diǎn)是就是選擇適合你自己投資或投機(jī)的股票,什么樣的人就選擇什么樣的股!?  就說(shuō)日前筆者拋售了的原水股份吧,我是今年3月份在6.70元處購(gòu)買(mǎi)的,那時(shí)正是該股最具投資價(jià)值的時(shí)候,我認(rèn)為是好股,所以我買(mǎi)進(jìn)了;相反,那些熱衷于投機(jī)的人是不看好該股的。然而,如今當(dāng)原水上漲到11元錢(qián)的時(shí)候,我又覺(jué)得該股缺少投資價(jià)值了,于是我在10元的上方拋售了該股;而這時(shí)卻正是那些喜愛(ài)投機(jī)者博取短線(xiàn)差價(jià)的時(shí)候,因此對(duì)于這些投機(jī)者來(lái)說(shuō),該股相反倒成了好股了。?  有這樣一則故事是很值得股民們借鑒的。?  古希臘哲學(xué)大師蘇格拉底的三個(gè)弟子曾求教老師,怎樣才能找到理想的伴侶 ,蘇格拉底沒(méi)有直接回答,卻讓他們走麥田埂,只許前進(jìn),且僅給一次機(jī)會(huì),要求是選摘一個(gè)最好最大的麥穗。?  第一個(gè)弟子沒(méi)走幾步,就看見(jiàn)一個(gè)又大又漂亮的的麥穗,高興地摘下了。但他繼續(xù)往前走時(shí),發(fā)現(xiàn)前面有許多麥穗比他摘的那個(gè)更大,但他已經(jīng)沒(méi)了機(jī)會(huì),只得遺憾地走完全程。?  第二個(gè)弟子吸取了教訓(xùn),每當(dāng)他要摘時(shí),總要提醒自己,后面還有更好的??僧?dāng)他快到終點(diǎn)時(shí)才發(fā)現(xiàn),機(jī)會(huì)全錯(cuò)過(guò)了。?  第三個(gè)弟子吸取了前兩個(gè)的教訓(xùn)。當(dāng)他走過(guò)全程的三分之一時(shí),即分出大、中、小三類(lèi);再走三分之一時(shí),驗(yàn)證是否正確;等到最后三分之一時(shí),他選擇了屬于大類(lèi)中的一個(gè)美麗的麥穗。雖說(shuō),這麥穗不一定是麥田里最好最大的一個(gè),但對(duì)他來(lái)說(shuō)已經(jīng)是心滿(mǎn)意足了。?  看完這則故事后,相信廣大的股民朋友都不愿象那第一個(gè)、第二個(gè)弟子一樣地帶著遺憾地或者兩手空空地走過(guò)股市的,大家都愿意是那第三個(gè)弟子。也許自己所選擇的不是漲得最好的股票,但只要這只股票能使自己滿(mǎn)意也就足夠了,至于別人感覺(jué)如何那就是別人的事了。因此,作為股民來(lái)說(shuō),選股關(guān)鍵是要選擇自己中意的股票就行!畢竟100個(gè)人有100種選股票的方法,而股市上的1000余只股票每天都有人買(mǎi)又有人賣(mài),可見(jiàn)什么樣的人選擇什么樣的股票這一點(diǎn)是永遠(yuǎn)不變的。工具箱  ·韓強(qiáng):《散戶(hù)的操作策略之一至七》【 發(fā)布:應(yīng)當(dāng)看看(臨時(shí))  2000-08-13 19:37 ?多彩總匯   瀏覽/回復(fù):102/7】  《認(rèn)清投機(jī)市——散戶(hù)的操作策略之一》    今年賺了指數(shù)賠了錢(qián)成了許多股民議論紛紜的問(wèn)題,有的股民聽(tīng)著股評(píng)作股票,春節(jié)后還在追高科技和網(wǎng)絡(luò)股,可是自從2月17日大盤(pán)從1770點(diǎn)回落以后,到3月6日股市的成交量日益減少,3月24日指數(shù)開(kāi)始了緩慢的上升過(guò)程從1595點(diǎn)漲到2000點(diǎn)以上,大多數(shù)高科技和網(wǎng)絡(luò)股不是橫盤(pán)就是陰跌,就算是反彈也不過(guò)一兩天。持有這些股票的股民賺了指數(shù)賠了錢(qián)。市場(chǎng)人士也注意到了這個(gè)問(wèn)題,告訴股民沒(méi)有及時(shí)跟上轉(zhuǎn)換熱點(diǎn),但是為什么沒(méi)有跟上?那就說(shuō)不清了。其實(shí)出現(xiàn)這種現(xiàn)象的根本原因是有些股民沒(méi)有認(rèn)清我們股的投機(jī)性,輕信某些股評(píng)家所謂“高科技股的成長(zhǎng)性”,“網(wǎng)絡(luò)股的新經(jīng)濟(jì)牲”,直到現(xiàn)在每到高科技股反彈時(shí),一些高科技股要啟動(dòng)的言論馬上就出來(lái)了,而每一次都讓人失望。為什么?還是應(yīng)該從投機(jī)市中找原因?! ∥覀兊纳顪墒兄挥?0年的歷史,還屬于初級(jí)階段,表現(xiàn)出明顯的投機(jī)性,再加上大多數(shù)上市公司改制不徹底,業(yè)績(jī)很差,運(yùn)作又不規(guī)范,就更助長(zhǎng)了過(guò)度投機(jī)。這種投機(jī)的特點(diǎn)就是“風(fēng)水輪流傳”,“后莊不給前莊解套”。在我們的股市上現(xiàn)在并沒(méi)有微軟那樣的高成長(zhǎng)公司,被稱(chēng)為網(wǎng)絡(luò)股的不過(guò)是觸了一下網(wǎng),真正的網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司還沒(méi)上市,有些掛“高科”名稱(chēng)的公司并不是主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)。所以用投資的方法去賣(mài)它的“成長(zhǎng)性”,難免不被套牢。今年3月我曾在一個(gè)網(wǎng)站的散戶(hù)論上發(fā)表了一篇《我對(duì)低價(jià)股的幾點(diǎn)看法》,馬上就有一位朋友說(shuō):“等大盤(pán)跌停板了再說(shuō)吧”,后來(lái)我的文章發(fā)表在上證報(bào)網(wǎng)絡(luò)版和網(wǎng)易經(jīng)濟(jì)頻道中。5月份我又在《四川新聞網(wǎng)》上發(fā)表了《西部大開(kāi)發(fā)我買(mǎi)東部股》,指出現(xiàn)在市場(chǎng)上鋼鐵、水泥等材料在漲價(jià),所以低價(jià)股要漲。在文章的最后有這樣一段話(huà):“前期炒作高科技股的市場(chǎng)主力想要出來(lái)就要換股,重演95年的“大盤(pán)股革命”。高科技不要碰,這是重點(diǎn)出貨對(duì)象,主力成本不高,恨不得馬上出手。.......主力是想出高科技,但出得來(lái)出不來(lái),可不一定,用證券界人士的話(huà)說(shuō),現(xiàn)在散戶(hù)也油了?!薄 】梢哉f(shuō)3—5月份介入低價(jià)股的股民都賺了錢(qián)。我講這些決不是說(shuō)自己有先見(jiàn)之明,而是說(shuō),我的經(jīng)驗(yàn)是幾年來(lái)在股市上交學(xué)費(fèi)換來(lái)的,我也曾看著股評(píng)作股票,也曾追熱點(diǎn),賠過(guò)錢(qián)。問(wèn)題是吃了虧要總結(jié)經(jīng)驗(yàn)。95年以來(lái)股市上風(fēng)水輪流傳的特點(diǎn)非常明顯。  95年518行情明顯地出現(xiàn)三個(gè)階段:5月份的浦東概念股、7、8、9、10四個(gè)月的“大盤(pán)股革命”,11、12月的“基金熱”,當(dāng)時(shí)市場(chǎng)傳言老基金將擴(kuò)容改為投資基金。以后雖然“概念”股變成了“97概念”,“網(wǎng)絡(luò)概念”,但是每次大行情的后期,炒一輪基金卻是經(jīng)常的事。98年4月股市回落時(shí),因?yàn)椤鞍凑諊?guó)際慣例”給基金優(yōu)認(rèn)購(gòu)10%的新股特權(quán),而出現(xiàn)了基金的炒作,一些1元的基金翻了倍,以至于后來(lái)上市的新基金幾天就到上2元以上。99年6月行情的后期,基金也有30—40%的漲幅。所以今年下半年出現(xiàn)基金炒作是很可能的。所以我現(xiàn)在建議大家注意新基金?! 」ぞ呦洹  ?· 發(fā)布:應(yīng)當(dāng)看看(臨時(shí))  2000-08-13 19:52 】    韓強(qiáng):《對(duì)待利好、消息股評(píng)要辯證的看——散戶(hù)的操作策略之二》     作股票首先有要獨(dú)立思考的的修養(yǎng),要知道自己是在干什么?現(xiàn)在的股市究竟是什么狀況?不要被那些眼花繚亂的現(xiàn)象搞錯(cuò)昏了頭。我們的深滬股市還處于初級(jí)階段,其特點(diǎn)是法規(guī)不健全,這種不規(guī)范的市場(chǎng),一般表現(xiàn)為震蕩市,無(wú)所謂牛市與熊市。所以我并沒(méi)有受所謂大牛市的干擾,同時(shí)也不相信99年的所謂“恢復(fù)性行情”,因?yàn)閺?4年以來(lái)每年都有一次大行情。在這個(gè)思想的指導(dǎo)下,我十分注意觀察機(jī)會(huì)的來(lái)臨。怎么判斷機(jī)會(huì)呢,除了技術(shù)指標(biāo)之外,就是對(duì)利好、消息、股評(píng)進(jìn)行辯證的分析。有人說(shuō),你寫(xiě)了那么多批評(píng)利好、批評(píng)股評(píng)的文章,現(xiàn)在又說(shuō)要看,這不是矛盾嗎?不錯(cuò),是矛盾,我們就是在股市中的矛盾中玩股票的,要是認(rèn)為沒(méi)有矛盾了,反而會(huì)失誤。或者說(shuō)思維中的矛盾是對(duì)客觀現(xiàn)實(shí)的反映。當(dāng)前,我們股市的矛盾一個(gè)重要的表現(xiàn),就是初級(jí)階段中,不健康、不成熟、不規(guī)范的市場(chǎng)與利好、股評(píng)的矛盾,你看明明是上市公司業(yè)績(jī)逐年下降,卻說(shuō)是“恢復(fù)性”的行情,你說(shuō)矛盾不矛盾。所以辯證的思考,會(huì)使我們冷靜,作出比較正確的判斷。這里我舉幾個(gè)例子?! ?97年初,瓊民源有送股題材,我買(mǎi)了一千股,當(dāng)時(shí)已經(jīng)是20多元了,但是有一天,我從《中國(guó)證券報(bào)》上看到兩種評(píng)論,一種說(shuō)它業(yè)績(jī)大幅度提高,一種說(shuō)它值得懷疑,當(dāng)時(shí)我的直覺(jué)告訴我立即拋,第二天我毫不猶豫地拋,第三天,它被停了牌。為什么呢,我在這兩種矛盾的評(píng)論中,取了懷疑的觀點(diǎn),因?yàn)楣墒刑幵诔跫?jí)階段,違規(guī)的事是經(jīng)常發(fā)生的?! ?另外,每次利好和利空都有是有征兆的,96年十二道金牌,已經(jīng)明顯地表明了當(dāng)時(shí)要制止股市的惡性投機(jī),而一些大機(jī)構(gòu)就是不聽(tīng)話(huà),這種矛盾的現(xiàn)象,預(yù)示著風(fēng)險(xiǎn)就要來(lái)了。我又從《參考消息》上看到評(píng)論要制止投機(jī)風(fēng)的小豆腐塊文章,《參考消息》一般情況下是不登股評(píng)的,我立即決定——跑,兩天后見(jiàn)到了第一篇評(píng)論員文章。我們小股民得到點(diǎn)消息不易,知道了,就必須立即行動(dòng)?! ?然而對(duì)評(píng)論員文章還可以做另一種理解,就是利空出盡是利好,當(dāng)時(shí)股市上一片恐慌,在屏幕上看到的上證領(lǐng)先和深證領(lǐng)先天天掛綠簾。94年所謂的“健康問(wèn)題”也曾引起股市的恐慌,但暴跌之后出現(xiàn)了有力度的反彈,有了那次經(jīng)驗(yàn),我在96年底天天去股市,在評(píng)論員文章發(fā)表后的第三天我發(fā)現(xiàn)屏幕上的綠簾不再那么整齊了,這說(shuō)明機(jī)構(gòu)在悄悄的進(jìn)貨,我馬上告訴股友們,大膽進(jìn)。所以每次在所謂的利空出現(xiàn)時(shí),只要一有跌停板,我都立即進(jìn)貨。同樣每次出現(xiàn)大利好,我都在兩三天內(nèi)出貨,利好出盡是利空。原因很簡(jiǎn)單,我們的股市是初級(jí)階段的震蕩市,與國(guó)際上成熟的股市不同?! ?這里,我并不是說(shuō),每次利好都要做反向的理解,關(guān)鍵是看股指站在什么點(diǎn)位,96年剛一開(kāi)始有降息的消息,上證指數(shù)才600多點(diǎn),這時(shí)就不能做反向的理解,只能做正面的理解。   講到股評(píng)的題材,我認(rèn)為,象股市行情一樣,也有它的起步、發(fā)展、高潮階段,前兩天,我在網(wǎng)上一再提醒投資者,網(wǎng)絡(luò)股不能再追高了,就是輿論已經(jīng)到了白熱化的程度,事情要走向反面。這兩天大家都有看到了所謂高技的億安科技已經(jīng)下跌,前兩天呢?股評(píng)還說(shuō)它是中國(guó)第一只百元股代表新理念呢?已經(jīng)上了重要電視臺(tái)的節(jié)目,這說(shuō)明登峰造極,是向反面的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。我再說(shuō)一句,從去年519以來(lái)。類(lèi)似于造神運(yùn)動(dòng)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)股神話(huà),已經(jīng)是日落黃花,一些股評(píng)家們正準(zhǔn)備制造新的題材,這也是初級(jí)階段的股市的特征。?  工具箱  【 · 發(fā)布:應(yīng)當(dāng)看看(臨時(shí))  2000-08-13 19:52 】    韓強(qiáng)《頂和底都在一閃之中——散戶(hù)的操作策略之三》  ?   證券市場(chǎng)的投資者都知道如何判斷一段行情的頂和底,是掌握進(jìn)貨和出貨時(shí)機(jī)的最基本方法。頂和底是一個(gè)區(qū)域,用技術(shù)分析方法是很難精確地計(jì)算出點(diǎn)位來(lái)的,必須把技術(shù)方法與實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn)結(jié)合起來(lái)。因?yàn)樯顪墒薪?jīng)常出現(xiàn)超實(shí)再超買(mǎi),超賣(mài)再超賣(mài)的情況。   從我的經(jīng)驗(yàn)看,頂和底都在一閃之中,人們從電視屏幕上看不到頂和底停留的時(shí)間,哪怕是一秒,,當(dāng)然這只是一天的底。如果觀察三天之內(nèi)它不再反復(fù)出現(xiàn),,那就是一個(gè)階段的底,反復(fù)出現(xiàn)的不是頂和底。1995年股市處于底迷狀態(tài),春節(jié)剛過(guò)股市就出現(xiàn)了陰跌,有一天我在證券營(yíng)業(yè)部看到最底524點(diǎn),但是沒(méi)有看到它的停留時(shí)間,一整天這個(gè)點(diǎn)位都有沒(méi)有出現(xiàn),而且在以后三天再也沒(méi)有看到這個(gè)點(diǎn)位,于是我和股友們商量,524點(diǎn)可能是底,進(jìn)一批股票試試吧,一看還真靈。以后又在幾次行情中試了試,確實(shí)是有效的判斷。那一年除了解518行情之外,有過(guò)幾次在580點(diǎn)和777點(diǎn)之間的波動(dòng),當(dāng)時(shí)的777點(diǎn)被看成是神秘?cái)?shù)字,股指過(guò)不了這個(gè)關(guān)口是很難有大行情的。當(dāng)然,就在這個(gè)一閃之中的頂和底中,技術(shù)指標(biāo)早以給出了提示,所以實(shí)踐與技術(shù)分析相結(jié)合是我判斷的依據(jù),這種方法是在波段行情中的應(yīng)用,不是對(duì)股市一年趨勢(shì)的判斷,以后經(jīng)過(guò)幾次波段行情指數(shù)不破524點(diǎn),才能判斷它是95年的底。   不過(guò)上述方法是在沒(méi)有重大消息時(shí)的一般判斷方法。95年518行情的第四天,一位記者問(wèn)我,明天還能漲多高,我說(shuō)明天770點(diǎn),因?yàn)槲铱吹?28點(diǎn)在全天只是一閃之中,從當(dāng)時(shí)的形勢(shì)來(lái)看,股市的熱度很高,停止國(guó)債期貨的措施引起的效果,是管理層事先沒(méi)有估計(jì)到的,很可能會(huì)出什么新措施。況且當(dāng)天收在了870點(diǎn),所以一有風(fēng)吹草動(dòng),股市也會(huì)跳空開(kāi)盤(pán)的。所以我當(dāng)時(shí)的意思是,有消息,就會(huì)暴跌?! ?今年的2月16日,我在家里看行情,發(fā)現(xiàn)電話(huà)委托占線(xiàn),趕緊向證券營(yíng)業(yè)部跑。到了哪里一看,人山人海,再一看屏幕,最高1770點(diǎn),我馬上問(wèn),誰(shuí)看到期1770的停留時(shí)間了?大家都有沒(méi)有看到,這時(shí)的上證指數(shù)已經(jīng)在1735點(diǎn)徘徊20 多分鐘。所以我們幾個(gè)老股民一商量,出貨!自助機(jī)已經(jīng)擠滿(mǎn)了人,我們馬上填委托單。因?yàn)槿诉@么多,也是見(jiàn)頂?shù)男盘?hào),即使1770點(diǎn)不是頂,也離頂不遠(yuǎn)了。這和我在94年10月5日那天下午遇到的營(yíng)業(yè)部里中有我和一位大夫在睡覺(jué)的情況,正好相反,所以要趕在這個(gè)人最多的時(shí)間出貨。也許有人要問(wèn)后面還漲,你怎么辦?我們當(dāng)時(shí)的決定是:不管后面,再等可能沒(méi)時(shí)間了。因?yàn)槲也荒茉賹?duì)1770點(diǎn)觀察三天,創(chuàng)新高必有回調(diào)。而且再創(chuàng)新高,我們也不想作了。因?yàn)槌跫?jí)階段的股市,還會(huì)再跌下來(lái),它的震蕩勢(shì)特征會(huì)在較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間內(nèi)表現(xiàn)出來(lái)。我們還有機(jī)會(huì)。?  工具箱  【 · 發(fā)布:應(yīng)當(dāng)看看(臨時(shí))  2000-08-13 19:53 】    韓強(qiáng)《會(huì)買(mǎi)還要會(huì)賣(mài)——散戶(hù)的操作策略之四》    很多股民聽(tīng)股評(píng)的一個(gè)重要目的,就是希望專(zhuān)家推薦個(gè)股,但是這些推薦來(lái)的個(gè)股,往往第二天就漲,第三天就有氣無(wú)力了,再等到就被套住了,所以我們要學(xué)會(huì)自己選股。但是選好了股也不一定賺錢(qián),一個(gè)行情到來(lái)的時(shí)候,很多股民手里拿的股票都賺錢(qián),但等到行情結(jié)束,有時(shí)卻賠錢(qián),所以會(huì)買(mǎi)還要會(huì)賣(mài)。下面談一些我自己的體會(huì),事先聲明,我講的是最一般的操作方法,對(duì)虧損股和熱門(mén)股不適用,我基本上不碰這些股票,因?yàn)椴恢滥囊惶焯潛p股摘牌,也不知道熱門(mén)股連拉幾個(gè)漲停板之后會(huì)突然來(lái)幾個(gè)跌停。我是求穩(wěn)的人?! ?(一)買(mǎi)技術(shù)指標(biāo)最差的股,賣(mài)技術(shù)指標(biāo)最好的股   利用技術(shù)指標(biāo)選股是一個(gè)很好的方法,我主要是利用KDJ值和SAR值。技術(shù)指標(biāo)很多,每個(gè)都有用,往往很難綜合,所以每個(gè)人最好用自己熟悉的指標(biāo),兩三個(gè)也就夠了。一般我是在一個(gè)股票J值在0軸附近時(shí)買(mǎi)入,在80以上賣(mài)出,。如果我們打開(kāi)個(gè)股的長(zhǎng)期日線(xiàn)圖,就會(huì)看到大多數(shù)股票都有有周期性的變化,一年會(huì)有幾次,從J值在0以下到80以上甚至于100以上的運(yùn)行周期,而在每一個(gè)周期中SAR值都有呈現(xiàn)由一連串的綠圈到紅圈的運(yùn)行過(guò)程,一般說(shuō)在一串綠圈之后出現(xiàn)紅圈是見(jiàn)底信號(hào),可以買(mǎi)進(jìn);在一串紅圈之后出現(xiàn)綠圈,是見(jiàn)頂信號(hào),可以賣(mài)出,當(dāng)然這還要結(jié)合前面所說(shuō)的KDJ值來(lái)看。這種方法適合作一般的股票,對(duì)熱門(mén)股不適用。大家可以看這次行情的上海石化,明顯地表現(xiàn)出是一個(gè)周期,從3.50到4.20,也有0.7元的空間,只要從中有0.5元的利潤(rùn),就是13%。當(dāng)然,你如果是短線(xiàn)高手,可以去玩熱股。那時(shí)靠技術(shù)指標(biāo)不行,要有博殺的經(jīng)驗(yàn)?! ?(二)吃魚(yú)身,不吃頭和尾?! ?任何人在股市上作股標(biāo)都很少買(mǎi)最低價(jià)賣(mài)最高價(jià),如果一味追求百分之百,可能適得其反。記得96年初大眾出租天除權(quán)后,跌到了11元,我12元買(mǎi)進(jìn),當(dāng)時(shí)在營(yíng)業(yè)部的股友們勸我快點(diǎn)賣(mài),它已經(jīng)漲到了16元,可是我剛出手不久,它又到了17元。股友們說(shuō),留點(diǎn)利潤(rùn)給別人,別作的太絕了?;丶乙幌?,有道理,最低價(jià)和最高價(jià)不屬于我,而且我永遠(yuǎn)做不到,炒股的原則是賺錢(qián),賺多賺少不要緊,關(guān)鍵是別賠。 所以這是一個(gè)心態(tài)問(wèn)題,有了這樣的心態(tài),逐步積累,也不錯(cuò)。   (三)賣(mài)了股票離場(chǎng)休息,緊緊握信自己的錢(qián)   在股市上我看到不少投資者,剛剛賣(mài)了股票,就急急忙忙地?fù)Q股,想再撈一把,這常常會(huì)失誤,因?yàn)檫@時(shí)的心態(tài)已經(jīng)被場(chǎng)面上的熱度感染,很難冷靜,不妨離場(chǎng)休息,找地方玩一玩,甚至休息一段時(shí)間,調(diào)整好心態(tài)再去股市。因?yàn)闆](méi)有只漲不跌的股市,也沒(méi)有只跌不漲的股市,急急忙忙地買(mǎi),甚至高價(jià)追趕漲,一有風(fēng)吹草動(dòng)就會(huì)把心態(tài)搞壞,很容易出錯(cuò)。我常常和朋友開(kāi)玩笑,說(shuō)股票好象不定時(shí)的炸彈,不知它什么時(shí)候爆炸,這樣才能有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)意識(shí)。這因?yàn)槿绱?,所以賣(mài)了股票,最好離場(chǎng)。工具箱  【 · 發(fā)布:應(yīng)當(dāng)看看(臨時(shí))  2000-08-13 20:00 】    韓強(qiáng)《假如賠錢(qián)怎么辦—散戶(hù)的操作策略之五》?    作股票都想賺錢(qián),誰(shuí)也不想賠錢(qián),但這只是愿望,這個(gè)愿望能否實(shí)現(xiàn)還要靠投資者的具體操作。但是任何事物都有兩種以上的可能性,也會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)化出兩種以上的現(xiàn)實(shí)性。也就是說(shuō),進(jìn)入股市,不管你怎么想賺錢(qián),都有兩種可能性,或者是賺,或者是賠(被套雖然是賬面虧損,但也是在一定時(shí)間內(nèi)的賠)。所以不妨先來(lái)個(gè)反向思考,我能賺錢(qián)嗎?假如賠了怎么辦?我如何爭(zhēng)取不賠,如果你先想到了賠的可能性,并且有賠錢(qián)的思想準(zhǔn)備,也就具有了承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力,這時(shí)你就會(huì)從避免賠錢(qián)開(kāi)始,認(rèn)真地考慮什么時(shí)候介入最合適,買(mǎi)那只股票最合適,于是也就在一定程度上避免了賠錢(qián)的可能性,而朝著賺錢(qián)的可能性發(fā)展了?! ∑鋵?shí),我們這些在股市泡長(zhǎng)了的股民,都在自覺(jué)或不自覺(jué)地應(yīng)用反向思維的形式。在股市中,我曾經(jīng)歷過(guò)一個(gè)真實(shí)的故事,有一個(gè)開(kāi)理發(fā)店的老板娘,她每天在股市中看盤(pán),不時(shí)地在小本子中記錄,看了一個(gè)月,才動(dòng)手買(mǎi)股票,后來(lái)的操作成功率很高。我曾經(jīng)問(wèn)過(guò)這位女士,她說(shuō),我雖然開(kāi)理發(fā)店,但看到許多做買(mǎi)賣(mài)的人賠錢(qián),所以,我想任何買(mǎi)賣(mài)都有有賠有賺,作股票也是一種買(mǎi)賣(mài),當(dāng)然要想好怎樣才不會(huì)賠。話(huà)雖然樸素,但道理深刻。她手中無(wú)股心中有股,實(shí)際上就是想避免賠錢(qián),有了這種思想準(zhǔn)備,所以因?yàn)樗3O氲氖?,我不要賠錢(qián),極力地避免賠錢(qián),所以就經(jīng)常賺錢(qián)。這大概是沒(méi)有學(xué)過(guò)相反理論,又在實(shí)踐中運(yùn)用反向思維方式的一個(gè)例子?! ∮行┡笥炎窛q殺跌,就是因?yàn)槭孪葲](méi)有考慮過(guò),我買(mǎi)這只股票究竟能不能賺錢(qián),能賺多少錢(qián),如果賠了錢(qián)怎么辦?能賠多少錢(qián)?究竟是賠的概率大,還是賺的概率大?有的朋友常常是聽(tīng)了職業(yè)股評(píng)家推薦的股票就冒然買(mǎi)進(jìn),甚至去追趕熱點(diǎn),結(jié)果損失慘重。如果,事先想一想,賠了怎么辦?可能會(huì)冷靜下來(lái),至少不去追高,等一等,或者買(mǎi)個(gè)還沒(méi)漲的股票,讓自己怕踏空的心理平衡一下,也許會(huì)好一些?!笆刂甏谩钡墓适?,常常被人們嘲笑,但如果反過(guò)來(lái),先買(mǎi)個(gè)沒(méi)有漲的股,來(lái)個(gè)“守株待兔”也未常不可,好象股市里“守株等兔”的成功率遠(yuǎn)比典故中的那個(gè)農(nóng)民要高得多,他好象是偶然,但到了股市里可經(jīng)常會(huì)有兔子,甚至是大兔子撞到你的樹(shù)下。所在一定條件下,看來(lái)是很傻的事,在另外的條件下,有可能是聰明的事。工具箱  【 · 發(fā)布:應(yīng)當(dāng)看看(臨時(shí))  2000-08-13 20:01 】    韓強(qiáng)《一個(gè)換股炒作的方案——散戶(hù)的操作策略之六》     有位網(wǎng)友寫(xiě)了一篇《中國(guó)十大套牢股票》,其中提到了四川長(zhǎng)虹和深發(fā)展,這些投票從97年就套了一大批人。記得今年4月初曾有一位朋友友問(wèn)我:48元和38元買(mǎi)的長(zhǎng)虹和發(fā)展怎么辦?我曾給他出過(guò)一個(gè)主意:在18元以上賣(mài)出深發(fā)展,在14元以上出四川長(zhǎng)虹,然后換成同等數(shù)量的上海汽車(chē),當(dāng)時(shí)上海汽車(chē)10.5元,這樣扣除5毛的手續(xù)費(fèi),每股長(zhǎng)虹換上海汽車(chē)可以多出來(lái)3元,1000股就是3000元,同樣道理,每股發(fā)展換上海汽車(chē)可以多出來(lái)7元,1000股就是7000元。一方面反正是套住了,套在上海汽車(chē)上比套在長(zhǎng)虹上好(當(dāng)時(shí)市場(chǎng)上已經(jīng)流傳長(zhǎng)虹業(yè)績(jī)不好,上海汽車(chē)已公布業(yè)績(jī)0.51元)這種策略叫用活資金,可以利用換股多出來(lái)的資金再做,即使再次被套,也是賺了股票,手里股票數(shù)量比原來(lái)多了?! ?這個(gè)方案是利用出來(lái)的一部分錢(qián),再請(qǐng)教短線(xiàn)高手推薦個(gè)好股票,慢慢的賺錢(qián),同時(shí)也不會(huì)因?yàn)橘u(mài)掉全部股票又沒(méi)有及時(shí)換股而踏空,逐漸調(diào)整心態(tài),從長(zhǎng)期被套的陰影中走出來(lái)??赡苓@位朋友想不通,所以他也沒(méi)有這樣做。98年和99年我曾給一些朋友出過(guò)這個(gè)主意,當(dāng)時(shí)是換的泰達(dá),因?yàn)橹亟M后的泰達(dá),業(yè)績(jī)一直在發(fā)展和長(zhǎng)虹之上,價(jià)格比發(fā)展、長(zhǎng)虹低,盤(pán)子卻比它們小得多。我還有一個(gè)朋友,干脆找了一個(gè)職業(yè)炒手,幫他來(lái)了個(gè)大換血,很快解了套,還賺了錢(qián)。當(dāng)然這個(gè)方案只是一種建議,每個(gè)人的操作方法不同,不一定都這么做?! ?我舉這個(gè)例子是說(shuō),股票很難做,不小心要套很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間,不僅賺了指數(shù)賠了錢(qián),而且很可能長(zhǎng)期套牢。指數(shù)只能做參考,把它作為大勢(shì)漲跌的一種趨勢(shì)(僅僅是個(gè)參考),個(gè)股還要仔細(xì)看。95年“大盤(pán)股革命”時(shí),一些在5.18短促大行情中沒(méi)有出來(lái)的莊家,其實(shí)就是利用換股炒作才得以脫身,在8月中旬開(kāi)始炒大盤(pán)低價(jià)股,到了10月份,上證指數(shù)在700——800點(diǎn)之間,而一汽金杯、上海石化、馬鋼股份、北旅汽車(chē)的股價(jià)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于5.18行情的928點(diǎn),記得928點(diǎn)時(shí)的四川廣華只有2.60元,而在8月份已經(jīng)到了6元以上。后來(lái)在96年初,當(dāng)上證指數(shù)跌到560點(diǎn)時(shí),一汽金杯只見(jiàn)到2.70元,這個(gè)價(jià)格正好是95年5.18行情(928點(diǎn))的最高價(jià)。反過(guò)來(lái)也是一樣,在96年大炒“97概念”時(shí),上海石化曾在850點(diǎn)就站上了8元的高價(jià),以后在1200點(diǎn)時(shí),基本上原地踏步,到了97年1510點(diǎn)時(shí),石化變成了7元,到了2000年的1858點(diǎn),這只股票最高價(jià)僅有5元多。所有這些情況說(shuō)明,在我們這個(gè)投機(jī)性很強(qiáng)的市場(chǎng)上,風(fēng)水輪流轉(zhuǎn)的情況時(shí)有發(fā)生。當(dāng)然,這并不是說(shuō),一切股票都會(huì)風(fēng)水輪流轉(zhuǎn),而是說(shuō)對(duì)于指數(shù)和股票,我們都需要辯證的看。工具箱  【 · 發(fā)布:應(yīng)當(dāng)看看(臨時(shí))  2000-08-13 20:02 】    韓強(qiáng)《不輕易滿(mǎn)倉(cāng)操作——散戶(hù)的股戰(zhàn)策略之七》     在股評(píng)中,常常聽(tīng)到一些“專(zhuān)家”說(shuō),XX股票莊家已介入,將要大幅上升,應(yīng)“滿(mǎn)倉(cāng)”介入。所以滿(mǎn)倉(cāng)操作并不是散戶(hù)的發(fā)明,而機(jī)構(gòu)大戶(hù)的發(fā)明,不僅滿(mǎn)倉(cāng),而且還超級(jí)滿(mǎn)倉(cāng)(透支),這樣做的結(jié)果不僅害了證券營(yíng)業(yè)部的不少大戶(hù),也害了不少聽(tīng)著股評(píng)作股票的散戶(hù)。如果我們看一看目前的投資基金,現(xiàn)在除了大量持股之外還有持國(guó)債,現(xiàn)金已所剩無(wú)幾,這大概是目前股市漲也縮量,跌也縮量的的原因之一。   我個(gè)人認(rèn)為,在大多數(shù)情況下,不應(yīng)滿(mǎn)倉(cāng)操作。打仗最忌全線(xiàn)出擊,要有一、 二、 三梯隊(duì)。情況不明如想操作,可少量試一試,來(lái)個(gè)火力偵察,體驗(yàn)一下感覺(jué),如果不行就趕快退出來(lái)。對(duì)于一般散戶(hù)來(lái)說(shuō),既不空倉(cāng),也不滿(mǎn)倉(cāng),手里要有壓倉(cāng)籌碼,例如20倍市盈率以下的股票,有這樣的股票墊底,可以克服突然上漲時(shí)的踏空的心理,平衡心態(tài),進(jìn)可攻,退可守,例如,在今年在上海汽車(chē)公布業(yè)績(jī)之后,一直在10元上下波動(dòng),這時(shí)拿一些來(lái)壓倉(cāng),無(wú)論大盤(pán)漲跌,都保持一部分。所謂“壓倉(cāng)”是說(shuō)低位接的績(jī)優(yōu)股,這可以保持相對(duì)長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間(要時(shí)時(shí)注意業(yè)績(jī)的變化)。   不輕易滿(mǎn)倉(cāng),并不是絕對(duì)不能滿(mǎn)倉(cāng)。個(gè)別情況下,可以滿(mǎn)倉(cāng),但不是一次性滿(mǎn)倉(cāng),就是連續(xù)暴跌時(shí),每跌一次,進(jìn)三分之一,三次進(jìn)滿(mǎn),其后必有大反彈,至少可出掉三分之二。但該出貨時(shí)不要猶豫,不管后面怎么漲都不要后悔,只要賺錢(qián)就行,當(dāng)然也可漲一次放三分之一,再漲再放。這種方法最好少用,穩(wěn)妥的方法是連續(xù)暴跌也只建三分之二的倉(cāng)位,手中保持一定的現(xiàn)金,就好象有了預(yù)備隊(duì),以防不測(cè),股市風(fēng)險(xiǎn)莫測(cè),留一分小心還是必要的。?  工具箱  【 · 發(fā)布:應(yīng)當(dāng)看看(臨時(shí))  2000-08-13 20:07 】    《控制貪心和恐懼——散戶(hù)的操作策略之八》  韓強(qiáng)  作股票不要太貪,這是人人都知道的,有人概括為克服貪心和恐懼,保持一顆平常心。這個(gè)概括基本正確,但還不太準(zhǔn),容易把“克服”理解為“去掉”,這樣的“平常心”似乎成了無(wú)欲望的“自性清凈心”,最好去學(xué)佛,不要炒股票,因?yàn)槌垂善本褪菫榱速嶅X(qián),當(dāng)然要貪財(cái),由此也會(huì)對(duì)股市的下跌引起恐懼,關(guān)鍵的問(wèn)題是控制貪心和恐懼,掌握二者之間的轉(zhuǎn)化,甚至加以利用?! ≈v到控制貪心和恐懼,往往被理解為股市上漲不要沖昏頭腦,下跌不要驚惶失措;對(duì)于個(gè)股說(shuō),不要總想賣(mài)個(gè)最高價(jià),下跌不要匆忙割肉。但僅僅這樣理解還不夠,還可以進(jìn)一步理解為,上漲不要怕踏空,驚惶失措地追漲,下跌不要貪得無(wú)厭,總想買(mǎi)個(gè)最低價(jià)。實(shí)際上正反兩方面都容易引起貪心和恐懼。在股市操作中的失誤,往往第二種情況的心理不平衡出現(xiàn)的情況更多。買(mǎi)進(jìn)一只股票,仔細(xì)看著它,這時(shí)小心翼翼,控制著自己的貪心,在相對(duì)高點(diǎn)賣(mài)出了,這本來(lái)很好,但是一看到自己剛賣(mài)出的股票以漲起來(lái)了,這時(shí)怕踏空的恐懼產(chǎn)生了,趕緊加價(jià)追趕漲,結(jié)果第二天這只股票又跌下來(lái)了,不及時(shí)止損,反而高位套牢,前功盡棄,這是貪心引起的恐懼。同樣,當(dāng)自己控制信了恐懼,看到了底部,卻貪心地想買(mǎi)一個(gè)最低價(jià),結(jié)果就是等不來(lái),甚至指數(shù)跌也等不來(lái)某個(gè)股票的最低價(jià),結(jié)果三等兩等股票漲起來(lái)了,只好加價(jià)追進(jìn)提高了成本,這是恐懼轉(zhuǎn)化為貪心。這些實(shí)際的例子,許多人都經(jīng)歷過(guò)。  股市既然是戰(zhàn)場(chǎng),就要從心理戰(zhàn)的角度去看問(wèn)題,貪心和恐懼是難免的,利用這種心理狀態(tài)還可以“斷勢(shì)”,就是大多數(shù)人心理恐慌時(shí),很可能見(jiàn)底;大多數(shù)人熱情高漲是,很可能見(jiàn)頂。說(shuō)老實(shí)話(huà),3月13日和16日股市的暴跌,我也害怕,說(shuō)不害怕那是假話(huà),但是我到一些營(yíng)業(yè)部走了一趟,發(fā)現(xiàn)一片悲觀,還比我怕的呢,再看股評(píng)也是大多數(shù)看空,這時(shí)我才覺(jué)得不怕了,可能要見(jiàn)底了。同樣道理,大多數(shù)人興高采烈,股評(píng)言論也一片叫好聲,反而要小心了。股評(píng)家預(yù)言的“新高”往往達(dá)不到就折頭向下,“新低”往往達(dá)不到就折頭上升。5月初股市的下跌,最有影響的觀點(diǎn)是1660點(diǎn),結(jié)果誰(shuí)也沒(méi)見(jiàn)到,在1695點(diǎn)股市就折頭向上。因此,對(duì)大多數(shù)人的共識(shí)要辯證地看,不僅“斷勢(shì)”如此,“斷股”也是如此,春節(jié)后所謂“高科技”、“網(wǎng)絡(luò)股”成了市場(chǎng)輿論中心,這時(shí)就應(yīng)該立即放掉手中的熱門(mén)股,沒(méi)有這些股票的就不能追漲,手一慢就被套?! 」墒械淖兓呛芸斓?,所以我們的心理狀態(tài)一定要控制住,這樣才不會(huì)忙中出錯(cuò)。工具箱  ·炒股勝似閑庭信步【 發(fā)布:aaa(臨時(shí))  2000-08-13 21:08 ?多彩總匯   瀏覽/回復(fù):66/0】  (轉(zhuǎn)帖)炒股勝似閑庭信步?    我進(jìn)入股市時(shí)間也很長(zhǎng)了,前后三年多。?  現(xiàn)在感覺(jué),炒股簡(jiǎn)直是一種享受。?  如何能使你的炒股時(shí)光變成閑庭信步和一種享受呢?根據(jù)本人多年的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。談?wù)勼w會(huì),希望能起到拋磚引玉的效果。?  第一:看公司基本面?  首先,你得有些基本的各方面知識(shí)。比如財(cái)務(wù)管理,資產(chǎn)管理,企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略,管理經(jīng)濟(jì)等企業(yè)管理和資產(chǎn)運(yùn)作方面的基本知識(shí)以及相關(guān)行業(yè)的技術(shù)知識(shí)。這樣便于你看那些公司的公告信息 。?  于是,飯后一只煙,看看證券報(bào)。多么悠閑自在。?  如果你懶得去學(xué)那些基本常識(shí),也沒(méi)關(guān)系??纯茨繕?biāo)公司的董事會(huì)中有沒(méi)有懂這方面的董事。以及他們的年齡結(jié)構(gòu)。一般董事會(huì)成員平均年齡在40以下最好。?  如果董事會(huì)里面,沒(méi)有兩個(gè)以上的人有上述文化和學(xué)習(xí)經(jīng)歷。那你就不要去關(guān)心它。?  第二??纯此木€(xiàn)?  當(dāng)你從第一條中找到了目標(biāo)公司。再查查他的K線(xiàn)。?  很簡(jiǎn)單哦,將中期線(xiàn)設(shè)置為73天線(xiàn)。短線(xiàn)均線(xiàn)設(shè)置為3和17天線(xiàn)。打開(kāi)電腦。看看均線(xiàn)與價(jià)格的關(guān)系。?  如果低于73天線(xiàn)0到10%,買(mǎi)入穩(wěn)賺。至少有50%?  如果股價(jià)在3日線(xiàn)上,持有睡覺(jué) 但是超過(guò)10%,先賣(mài)再說(shuō)。在離開(kāi)3日線(xiàn)向下5%在買(mǎi)回來(lái)。錢(qián)不變。股票就多了。?  如果在3日到17日之間可以不管。如果在17日下或者平。就拿錢(qián)走人。?  第三。開(kāi)始的一到兩個(gè)月,搗糨糊。?  按第二條的做法。倒差價(jià)。自己給自己送股。你的本錢(qián)將比莊家的都低。?  這時(shí),你就是莊家的莊家。睡覺(jué)去。不到100%不賣(mài)。?  關(guān)注基本面,參考均線(xiàn)系統(tǒng)操作。穩(wěn)賺不賠。認(rèn)準(zhǔn)一到兩個(gè)股票。其樂(lè)融融。沒(méi)有煩惱和憂(yōu)愁。是不是勝似閑庭信步呀?  -----------------------?  我的實(shí)例:?  600090 啤酒花。先分析其董事會(huì)和各種文件,確定其是目標(biāo)公司。然后像獵人一樣等它到位捕捉。然后按第二條操作。根本不用天天看盤(pán)面。只需要飯后茶余看看而已。買(mǎi)賣(mài)也是一分鐘事情。?  順序 買(mǎi)/賣(mài) 價(jià)位 數(shù)量?  1 買(mǎi) 11 2000?  2 賣(mài) 13.5 2000?  3 買(mǎi) 12 2200?  4 賣(mài) 16.5 2200?  5 買(mǎi) 14.9 2400?  6 賣(mài) 19.1 2400?  7 買(mǎi) 17 2600?  中間配股8.8. 到此的成本是8元多一點(diǎn)?          工具箱  ·我是怎樣從虧損中走出來(lái)的【 發(fā)布:小孫(臨時(shí))  2000-08-14 14:15 ?多彩總匯   瀏覽/回復(fù):120/0】  (轉(zhuǎn)帖)神光研究員:孫成鋼  從虧損中走出來(lái)  1995年9月底,我結(jié)婚了,用自己賺的錢(qián)辦完喜事,置辦完家具,帳戶(hù)里還是有2萬(wàn)多元。這個(gè)時(shí)候,我正擔(dān)任某證券部的經(jīng)理,領(lǐng)導(dǎo)得知我善于做股票,股評(píng)做得也不錯(cuò),就決定給我400萬(wàn)元資金做自營(yíng),即使是交易量也可以。10月中旬,濟(jì)南的一個(gè)朋友委托我80萬(wàn)元資金,由于自信我不會(huì)虧損,所以大話(huà)說(shuō)在前面:虧了不用我管,賺了分我20%。由于自己也確實(shí)自信,就毫不猶豫地接了過(guò)來(lái)。  做起來(lái)才發(fā)現(xiàn)并非如此簡(jiǎn)單,我做2-5萬(wàn)元的資金的確得心應(yīng)手,甚至能一年翻兩番,但80萬(wàn)元的資金怎么會(huì)這樣別扭呢?剛上來(lái)就開(kāi)始虧損,而且?guī)缀蹙蜎](méi)有賺錢(qián)!那個(gè)400萬(wàn)元的資金更倒霉,剛開(kāi)始一周還在400萬(wàn)上盤(pán)整,有交易量沒(méi)有虧損,領(lǐng)導(dǎo)也高興,但不久就開(kāi)始突然越虧越厲害!  最慘重的一次虧損出現(xiàn)在1995年11月1日。那個(gè)時(shí)候,沈陽(yáng)的小基金走得比較漂亮,其中沈陽(yáng)富民從9月的不足3元漲到了5元多,當(dāng)然,這之前我是沒(méi)有買(mǎi)的。10月31日這天開(kāi)始滿(mǎn)倉(cāng)買(mǎi)進(jìn)沈陽(yáng)富民和沈陽(yáng)萬(wàn)利,這天的收盤(pán)分別是5.4元和3.50元。當(dāng)時(shí)400多萬(wàn)元資金全買(mǎi)成這兩個(gè)基金,倉(cāng)位是很重的,所以,10月31日那天晚上我就失眠了,翻來(lái)覆去地想如果上漲20%怎么辦,明天最起碼上午還是能漲的,下午出貨吧,上午可以先透支嘛,因?yàn)槭菭I(yíng)業(yè)部經(jīng)理,我可以直接報(bào)盤(pán)買(mǎi)進(jìn),沒(méi)有資金也是可以的,但當(dāng)天必須平倉(cāng)出來(lái)——后來(lái)我總結(jié)了一個(gè)經(jīng)驗(yàn):當(dāng)我失眠的時(shí)候,作出的決定必然是錯(cuò)的,因?yàn)槭チ死碇牵駝t又何以會(huì)失眠呢?  11月1日的太陽(yáng)照舊升起。沈陽(yáng)富民開(kāi)盤(pán)5.39元,慢慢震蕩著向上走,由于沈陽(yáng)萬(wàn)利臨時(shí)停牌,我只得重倉(cāng)買(mǎi)進(jìn)富民,到中午收盤(pán)前,富民最高到了5.62元,此時(shí)我手里至少持有100萬(wàn)股了。下午開(kāi)盤(pán)連一分鐘都不到,沈陽(yáng)富民突然大幅度跳水,10分鐘之內(nèi)下跌接近20%,不久就跌帶了4.50元!沈陽(yáng)萬(wàn)利開(kāi)盤(pán)3.53元,瞬間高見(jiàn)3.90元,直線(xiàn)跌到了3元!又出現(xiàn)了透支的煩惱,我已經(jīng)沒(méi)有汗水了。幾年后看了一個(gè)傳說(shuō),說(shuō)某神童的哥哥見(jiàn)皇帝時(shí)害怕,故滿(mǎn)頭大汗,皇帝問(wèn)原由,對(duì)曰:戰(zhàn)戰(zhàn)兢兢,汗如雨下;但神童卻因不怕見(jiàn)皇帝,所以無(wú)汗,皇帝問(wèn)的時(shí)候,對(duì)曰:戰(zhàn)戰(zhàn)兢兢,汗不敢出。我那個(gè)時(shí)候是真的嚇得不敢出汗了,要計(jì)算頭寸,要決定是不是斬倉(cāng)。到最后,也只有斬倉(cāng)一條路!一刀下去,兩面挨耳光,虧損超過(guò)10%,這是一天虧損50萬(wàn)?。?0天后,沈陽(yáng)富民跌破4元,兩個(gè)月后,沈陽(yáng)萬(wàn)利跌破2元,這就是結(jié)局?! ≈劣诋?dāng)時(shí)為什么出現(xiàn)暴跌,后來(lái)知道是一家上海的咨詢(xún)公司在聲訊臺(tái)上發(fā)布消息,說(shuō)小基金要合并,讓大家出貨。后來(lái),有關(guān)部門(mén)還處理了該公司。但作為“外地”的股民,信息的不及時(shí)總是一種劣勢(shì)。4年后,我與該公司的老總見(jiàn)面的時(shí)候,準(zhǔn)確地說(shuō)出了那一天的那一時(shí)刻的基金價(jià)格,聽(tīng)得他瞠目結(jié)舌,足見(jiàn)該事件對(duì)我的深刻影響?! 〖热怀霈F(xiàn)了虧損,我就想一定要抓緊賺回來(lái),所以,交易更加頻繁,交易量也更大,甚至去追逐一些新股。比如武漢電纜上市的時(shí)候是兩市唯一的電纜類(lèi)股票,定位很高,12元買(mǎi)進(jìn)來(lái),兩天不到就在11元拋出去,如果不拋,兩個(gè)月后就跌到了6元多。由于虧損加劇,心態(tài)越來(lái)越壞,幾乎買(mǎi)進(jìn)的所有股票都賠錢(qián)!  到1995年11月底,那80萬(wàn)元資金只剩下了30萬(wàn)元,虧損幅度接近60%,400萬(wàn)元資金則虧損100萬(wàn)元。當(dāng)時(shí)我的體重150斤,正好每斤值1萬(wàn)元。所以,夜里我就常想:我怎么能找個(gè)單位要我,我把自己賣(mài)了,但1斤1萬(wàn)元,有沒(méi)有人要呢?豬肉1斤才8元錢(qián)呢!妻子不了解實(shí)際情況,聽(tīng)我每天回去就嘆氣,還真的以為單位里事情多。見(jiàn)我喝酒很厲害,也無(wú)法勸阻,有一天喝醉了居然在洗手間里就睡過(guò)去了?! ∽罾щy的時(shí)候,我在一周內(nèi)四次上泰山,冬天的泰山寂靜少人,我獨(dú)自爬到一個(gè)山坡靜坐遐想,每次都三四小時(shí)。那個(gè)時(shí)間,思緒亂飛,現(xiàn)在已不可回憶。記得最后一次剛下過(guò)雪,在一個(gè)亭子里我又見(jiàn)到了以前常見(jiàn)到一口鐘上鑄的一篇佛經(jīng)《佛說(shuō)般若波羅蜜多心經(jīng)》。平時(shí)也看,并無(wú)太大的感觸,但那一次的幾個(gè)字最終震撼了我:   舍利子:   色不異空 空不異色   色即是空 空即是色   受想行識(shí) 亦復(fù)如是  意思很簡(jiǎn)單:一切事物,包括思想意識(shí)其實(shí)都是空無(wú)的,但空無(wú)也是事物,所以,連空無(wú)也不要想。對(duì)我而言,猶如醍醐灌頂,突然清醒過(guò)來(lái):錢(qián),我本來(lái)就沒(méi)有,是從股市賺的,身體,我本來(lái)就沒(méi)有,是從父母受的,名利,我本就沒(méi)有,是時(shí)運(yùn)造就的,既然“本來(lái)無(wú)一物”,那又何必執(zhí)照著呢?再想想,什么虧損贏利,其實(shí)也是空的,不就是符號(hào)的變化嗎?自己去想著:我虧了,那就是虧了,自己不想它,不就是空嗎?既然空,當(dāng)然可以有??!如果老是惦記著虧損,惦記著后果,不就把自己壓死了嗎?  這種想法在佛教也許不入流,至多是“無(wú)色,有空”的境界,離“無(wú)空”,“無(wú)無(wú)空”的境地也許很遠(yuǎn),但對(duì)我來(lái)說(shuō)就足夠了。我從此學(xué)會(huì)了隨遇而安,學(xué)會(huì)了平靜地處理事務(wù),我為錢(qián)的盈虧而激動(dòng)的時(shí)代因此結(jié)束了?! 拇?,我暫時(shí)停止操作,每天若無(wú)其事地瞞著新婚不久的妻子,每天晚上總結(jié)著自己以前的經(jīng)驗(yàn),繼續(xù)撰寫(xiě)《股市預(yù)測(cè)與實(shí)戰(zhàn)》一書(shū)。并在1995年12月完稿,1996年1月正式出版。現(xiàn)在回想,我已經(jīng)記不起來(lái)在那樣大的虧損下我怎樣能安心把書(shū)寫(xiě)完的,而且書(shū)中充滿(mǎn)著對(duì)1996年1-4月中國(guó)股市有一個(gè)歷史性大底的絕對(duì)信心——后來(lái)的實(shí)踐證明了1996年1-4月就是中國(guó)股市戰(zhàn)略筑底時(shí)期,1997年5月,上海的指數(shù)比1996年上漲近200%,深圳則上漲420%(綜合指數(shù)上漲超過(guò)500%)?! 」镜淖誀I(yíng)資金在年底前后被領(lǐng)導(dǎo)終止操作。那80萬(wàn)元資金在1996年初變成了28萬(wàn)元,正好虧損了65%。但又是“天助我也”,1996年果然來(lái)了大行情,到1996年9月底,該帳戶(hù)的資金一度達(dá)到150萬(wàn)元,結(jié)帳的時(shí)候還保持著將近140萬(wàn)元的水平(同期上海指數(shù)漲幅80%,深圳指數(shù)漲幅150%)。結(jié)帳之后,雖然最終分給我的不多,但由于自己帳戶(hù)的資金做得也不錯(cuò),我的個(gè)人資金達(dá)到了20萬(wàn)元?! ∵@次操作給我的教訓(xùn)是十分豐富的:我可以做好20萬(wàn)元的資金,但絕對(duì)不會(huì)馬上就做好80萬(wàn)乃至幾百萬(wàn)的資金,必須有一個(gè)熟悉和適應(yīng)的過(guò)程;面對(duì)損失,要有自我調(diào)理的能力,應(yīng)始終保持身心的健康;把得失看得淡一點(diǎn),把榮辱看得輕一點(diǎn),平靜做人,認(rèn)真做事,總有成功的機(jī)會(huì);不要太貪心,尤其不要想一口吃個(gè)大胖子,最大的虧損總發(fā)生在最貪心的時(shí)候;謀事在人,成事在天,你能賺,能得,你有虧,有失,未必全是你自己的努力,更多的也許是天道使然,這個(gè)天道就是自然的法則,社會(huì)的秩序,人心的北向;股市中永遠(yuǎn)有機(jī)會(huì),不存在先來(lái)的后到的,大家都要先有付出才有收獲?! 「匾氖牵?996年5月,我已經(jīng)感覺(jué)到了帳戶(hù)資金增減存在一定的規(guī)律,這個(gè)規(guī)律可能有助于操作的實(shí)踐。所以,在帳戶(hù)市值回到80萬(wàn)元的時(shí)候,我開(kāi)始畫(huà)資金曲線(xiàn),在帳戶(hù)市值接近160萬(wàn)元的時(shí)候果斷停止了。后來(lái),在1997年的“神光年度展望”中,神光資金曲線(xiàn)理論就首次亮相了,這套理論后來(lái)逐漸完善,終于成為深受市場(chǎng)人士重視的理論?! 」ぞ呦洹  で捎脫Q手率贏莊家【 發(fā)布:飛翔鳥(niǎo)(臨時(shí))  2000-08-14 14:19 ?多彩總匯   瀏覽/回復(fù):120/0】  作者:大猛?!     ≈挥姓业侥壳按蟊P(pán)的熱點(diǎn),尋找強(qiáng)勢(shì)股、熱門(mén)股,才可能跑贏大勢(shì)。只要找到熱門(mén)股就可以找到強(qiáng)勢(shì)股了。    判別是否屬于最近熱門(mén)股的有效指標(biāo)是換手率。換手率高,說(shuō)明近期有大量的資金進(jìn)出該股。流通性良好。投資者可將近期每天換手率連續(xù)超過(guò)2%的個(gè)股,列入備選對(duì)象之中,這樣大大縮小了選股范圍,再根據(jù)一些輔助規(guī)則,從高換手率個(gè)股中精選出最佳品種。    操作中可利用以下的幾個(gè)輔助規(guī)則:?    首先要找換手率能否維持較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的個(gè)股。若在較長(zhǎng)的一段時(shí)間內(nèi)保持較高的換手率,說(shuō)明資金進(jìn)出量大,熱度較高,一些個(gè)股僅僅有一兩天成交突然放大,其后重歸沉寂,并不說(shuō)明該股股性已轉(zhuǎn)強(qiáng)。深發(fā)展(0001)3月9日成交量柱狀圖突然躥出一根“電線(xiàn)桿”,其后很快繼續(xù)縮量,弱勢(shì)難改。而方正科技(600601)自去年12月開(kāi)始每天的換手率平均超過(guò)3%,持續(xù)性強(qiáng),增量資金源源不斷地“增援”,使該股股價(jià)水漲船高?!   ∑浯我炎邉?shì)形態(tài)、均線(xiàn)系統(tǒng)作為輔助判斷。換手率高,有可能表明資金流入,亦有可能為資金流出。一般來(lái)說(shuō),出現(xiàn)較高的換手率的同時(shí)均線(xiàn)系統(tǒng)保持空頭排列、重心下移,表明資金從該股流出,后市以跌為主。亞盛集團(tuán)(600108)5月中旬以來(lái)每天平均換手率超過(guò)1%,股價(jià)卻一直受30日均線(xiàn)的支撐,在大盤(pán)下調(diào)過(guò)程中顯示了很好的抗跌性?!   〉谌龔膬r(jià)量關(guān)系上看,一些熱門(mén)股上漲過(guò)程中保持較高的換手率,此時(shí)繼續(xù)追漲風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較大。如上海梅林(600073)自去年12月份以來(lái)的每天換手率接近2%,量?jī)r(jià)比提前發(fā)出買(mǎi)入信號(hào)。投資者可重點(diǎn)關(guān)注那些近期一直保持較高換手率,而股價(jià)漲幅較有限的個(gè)股,根據(jù)“量比價(jià)先行”的規(guī)律,在成交量先行放大后,股價(jià)通常很快跟上量的步伐,即短期換手率高,表明短期上行能量充足。    換手率是指在一定時(shí)間內(nèi)市場(chǎng)中股票轉(zhuǎn)手買(mǎi)賣(mài)的頻率,是反映股票流通性的指標(biāo)之一。計(jì)算公式為:換手率=某一段時(shí)間內(nèi)的成交量/流通股數(shù)×100%?!     ∫话銇?lái)說(shuō),當(dāng)股價(jià)處于低位時(shí),當(dāng)日換手率達(dá)到2%左右時(shí)應(yīng)引起投資者的關(guān)注,而上升途中換手率達(dá)到20%左右時(shí)則應(yīng)引起警惕。工具箱  ·弱市中強(qiáng)勢(shì)股的選股思路【 發(fā)布:aaa(臨時(shí))  2000-08-14 15:56 ?多彩總匯   瀏覽/回復(fù):87/0】  (轉(zhuǎn)帖)弱市中強(qiáng)勢(shì)股的選股思路?  ?  ?  2000年8月14日 15:14?  ?    目前,我國(guó)深滬兩市掛牌流通的股票已達(dá)1000多家,個(gè)股分化明顯,“強(qiáng)者恒強(qiáng)、弱者恒弱”已成為目前的市場(chǎng)特點(diǎn),選股越發(fā)顯得重要。本文通過(guò)對(duì)弱市中強(qiáng)勢(shì)個(gè)股的追蹤分析,探討一種較為有效的選股思路?!   ∫?、選股思路   ?。?、指導(dǎo)思想    主力資金無(wú)論是建倉(cāng)還是出貨,總是要先于市場(chǎng)一般投資者而動(dòng),在較長(zhǎng)的調(diào)整行情的未端,往往是主力資金建倉(cāng)的大好時(shí)機(jī)。正如大鱷入水總是要濺起水花,主力加大對(duì)一只股票的資金投入或運(yùn)作力度,這只股票大多會(huì)在二級(jí)市場(chǎng)上出現(xiàn)一些異常動(dòng)向。作為普通投資者,真正能夠從市場(chǎng)表象中把握的東西通常只有兩點(diǎn):即成交量的逐漸活躍和股價(jià)的抗跌性,而股價(jià)的抗跌性是以大盤(pán)指數(shù)為參照相對(duì)而言的。正是基于上述原因,我們以個(gè)股與大盤(pán)的漲跌比較為依據(jù),在弱勢(shì)中選擇強(qiáng)勢(shì)抗跌個(gè)股,作為未來(lái)市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)強(qiáng)時(shí)的主要建倉(cāng)目標(biāo),并以此作為主要的選股指導(dǎo)思想。   ?。?、分析方法    選取較為明顯的一段大盤(pán)向下調(diào)整的時(shí)期,篩選出此時(shí)段內(nèi)的一些強(qiáng)勢(shì)個(gè)股作為樣本,統(tǒng)計(jì)其波動(dòng)幅度及換手情況,并在隨后的大盤(pán)上升過(guò)程中再次選取一段較為明顯的上升波段,對(duì)所選擇的樣本股進(jìn)行追蹤,統(tǒng)計(jì)其在上升波段中的漲幅,并與大盤(pán)的升幅比較,從而驗(yàn)證在弱勢(shì)中選擇強(qiáng)勢(shì)股這種選股方法的實(shí)戰(zhàn)效果?!   。?、漲跌時(shí)段的選擇    (1)選擇99年10月28日至99年12月27日為下跌調(diào)整波段。從上證指數(shù)日K線(xiàn)分析,自上證指數(shù)從99年9月10日下調(diào)后,此波段為較明顯的下跌末期階段,歷時(shí)整整2個(gè)月?!   。ǎ玻┻x擇99年12月28日至2000年2月17日為上升波段。從上證日K線(xiàn)可明顯看出,進(jìn)入新年后大盤(pán)走出了明顯的上升行情。2月17日創(chuàng)出本次行情的最高點(diǎn),且此上升波段與所選擇的下跌波段在時(shí)間上也是連續(xù)相接的?!   。?、樣本的選擇    將下跌波段10月28日至12月27日這一時(shí)間段滬深兩地的個(gè)股漲幅進(jìn)行排序,選擇兩個(gè)交易市場(chǎng)漲幅前10名的股票作為弱勢(shì)中的強(qiáng)勢(shì)股,共20家。它們分別是:    上海:ST渤化(600874)、時(shí)裝股份(600825)、金豐投資(600606)、寧波華通(600768)、全興股份(600779)、ST石勸業(yè)(600892)、綜藝股份(600770)、上海梅林(600073)、ST東碳(600691)、方正科技(600601)    深圳:億安科技(0008)、古漢集團(tuán)(0590)、ST瓊能源(0502)、重慶華亞(0402)、沙隆達(dá)(0553)、陽(yáng)光股份(0608)、凱迪電力(0793)、ST寶石(0413)、六渡橋(0765)、燃?xì)夤煞荩ǎ埃罚梗常   《?、?shí)踐表現(xiàn)追蹤分析    1、下跌時(shí)段強(qiáng)勢(shì)個(gè)股的表現(xiàn)情況(如表一、表二)   ?。?、上升行情中20家樣本股的表現(xiàn)追蹤(如表三、表四)    三、分析結(jié)論   ?。薄⑾碌ǘ螐?qiáng)勢(shì)股逆勢(shì)上揚(yáng)    在99年10月28日至12月27日這一較為明顯的單邊下跌階段,滬深兩地指數(shù)平均跌幅為12.46%和13.98%,兩市跌幅的算術(shù)平均為13.22%,市場(chǎng)平均換手水平為25%,而在同期,我們所選擇的20家樣本股的平均升幅為24.01%,平均換手率為91.94%。以上數(shù)據(jù)表名我們選擇的樣本股在弱市中具有極強(qiáng)的強(qiáng)勢(shì)表現(xiàn),而且個(gè)股成交量的活躍程度也遠(yuǎn)高于市場(chǎng)平均水平,表明這些強(qiáng)勢(shì)個(gè)股大多受到主力資金的關(guān)照。   ?。病⑸蠞q波段強(qiáng)勢(shì)股升勢(shì)強(qiáng)于大盤(pán)    在99年12月28日至2000年2月17日這一較明顯的上升行情中,20家樣本股大多數(shù)表現(xiàn)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)勝于大盤(pán)。其中滬市只有3只個(gè)股表現(xiàn)弱于大盤(pán),另外七只股票的漲幅遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)大盤(pán),深市漲幅弱于大盤(pán)的只有2家。兩市樣本股的平均期望收益水平達(dá)到71.46%,而同期兩市大盤(pán)的平均升幅為26.34%,為大盤(pán)的2.7倍。從換手水平看,20家樣本股平均換手率為119%,為大盤(pán)的2倍。另外,上半年市場(chǎng)大牛股如:上海梅林、億安科技、綜藝股份、陽(yáng)光股份、古漢集團(tuán)、金豐投資等都在我們的20只樣本股中。而樣本股的選擇是客觀的,是完全根據(jù)下跌時(shí)段的漲跌序得出的,因而這是一個(gè)令人振奮的發(fā)現(xiàn)?!   。?、從以上的分析中,我們可以初步得出以下結(jié)論    在大盤(pán)下跌波段選擇的20只樣本股,在后市大盤(pán)出現(xiàn)行情時(shí),總體表現(xiàn)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)優(yōu)于大盤(pán);而且出現(xiàn)了許多超級(jí)強(qiáng)勢(shì)股,市場(chǎng)的檢驗(yàn)證明了在弱勢(shì)中選擇強(qiáng)勢(shì)股這種選股思路是可行的?!   ∷?、有關(guān)注意因素   ?。?、運(yùn)用的范圍    這種選股思路有一定的局限性,只適合于在弱市中選擇個(gè)股。我們所選擇的下跌波段歷時(shí)兩個(gè)月,事實(shí)證明,調(diào)整的時(shí)間越長(zhǎng),即最好為一段中級(jí)調(diào)整,這種方式的準(zhǔn)確性才會(huì)越高,而在平衡市或是牛市中則不適用?!   。病①I(mǎi)入時(shí)機(jī)的把握    本文只是討論買(mǎi)什么股票的問(wèn)題,而一旦選擇了一些目標(biāo)股,何時(shí)買(mǎi)入并沒(méi)有明確的說(shuō)明。根據(jù)筆者個(gè)人的經(jīng)驗(yàn),下跌波段的主要工作就是選擇股票并且進(jìn)行跟蹤觀察,不斷加以調(diào)整。在此過(guò)程中,并不適于做買(mǎi)入行動(dòng),真正的買(mǎi)入時(shí)機(jī)應(yīng)是在大盤(pán)出現(xiàn)較為明顯的轉(zhuǎn)強(qiáng)跡象以后?!   ?  中旅信托(2000年8月14日)  ?  工具箱  ·賺錢(qián)不吃力和吃力不賺錢(qián) 應(yīng)健中【 發(fā)布:飛翔鳥(niǎo)(臨時(shí))  2000-08-14 17:42 ?多彩總匯   瀏覽/回復(fù):77/0】  在股市中,花費(fèi)很多精力是否就一定賺錢(qián)?也就是說(shuō),在賺錢(qián)和花精力是否呈正比關(guān)系?答案當(dāng)然是否定的。因?yàn)?,賺錢(qián)和花精力這兩者未必有相關(guān)關(guān)系。?    前陣子,有人抨擊專(zhuān)做一級(jí)市場(chǎng)的人是不勞而獲。說(shuō)什么在二級(jí)市場(chǎng)上有很多人夜以繼日地研究市場(chǎng),在股市上花費(fèi)了大量的心血,最后還是賠錢(qián);而在一級(jí)市場(chǎng)上那些不勞而獲者什么腦筋也不動(dòng),卻賺了大錢(qián)。其結(jié)論是太不公平,應(yīng)該將這種特權(quán)剝奪掉。?    對(duì)一級(jí)市場(chǎng)中的不合理現(xiàn)象提出改進(jìn)意見(jiàn),這是十分有必要的。但將賺錢(qián)與在股市上花心血兩者之間扯在一起,這似乎就有點(diǎn)風(fēng)馬牛不相及,甚至有點(diǎn)偏激了。?    股市難道是只要你多看書(shū)、多聽(tīng)消息、多做功課、多研究走勢(shì),就一定能保證賺錢(qián)嗎?事實(shí)上未必如此。因?yàn)?,在股市?shí)踐中,有相當(dāng)多的股癡對(duì)市場(chǎng)癡迷到顛狂的程度,但這種人大多數(shù)賺不到錢(qián),甚至于賠錢(qián)。?    相反,在市場(chǎng)中一些人心態(tài)極其良好,每年只做一、兩波行情,低位時(shí)選一只股票買(mǎi)完了就離開(kāi)市場(chǎng),并不在乎幾角甚至于幾元錢(qián)的差價(jià),也不天天泡在市場(chǎng)中。真正做到了手中有股,心中無(wú)股。他們幾乎不在股市上花精力,平時(shí)該學(xué)習(xí)時(shí)學(xué)習(xí),該工作時(shí)工作。最后幾個(gè)月甚至于一年過(guò)去了,到股市上一看,這些股票翻了50%甚至于一倍,于是一拋了之。即使拋完后股票還在漲,也沒(méi)有心態(tài)不平衡,因?yàn)椴豢葱牟粺?。這種人實(shí)際上才是股市的贏家,而且贏得輕松,贏得自在。?    就拿專(zhuān)做一級(jí)市場(chǎng)的“搖啊搖”大軍來(lái)說(shuō),能堅(jiān)持這樣做下去也是需要有眼光的。第一要有資金實(shí)力;第二要有長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的理財(cái)眼光;第三要有耐心,才能在一級(jí)市場(chǎng)上獲得穩(wěn)定收益。從1996年到2000年,如果年年都盈利,1996年盈利是80%左右;1997年盈利是50%;1998年盈利降到40%;1999年只盈利20%;2000年上半年就盈利15%,全年估計(jì)盈利也不過(guò)25%。但算下來(lái)5年盈利4倍多,成了一支穩(wěn)定的盈利資金隊(duì)伍。?    問(wèn)題在于這樣的操作是不是屬于不勞而獲?以筆者之見(jiàn),在證券市場(chǎng)不應(yīng)該有這種以倫理的概念來(lái)衡量市場(chǎng)的觀點(diǎn),而是該看這種行為是否合法。只要行為合法,程序合法,就是賺得理所當(dāng)然。而且這一級(jí)市場(chǎng)申購(gòu)人人可以做,老少無(wú)欺。因此看見(jiàn)別人賺錢(qián)心里就不舒服,這種心態(tài)在股市中實(shí)在是太幼稚了。?    記得前幾年社會(huì)流行這樣一句口頭禪:賺錢(qián)的不吃力,吃力的不賺錢(qián)。咱們這個(gè)股市如今也不是這樣嗎?關(guān)鍵不在于吃力不吃力,關(guān)健在于要有良好的心態(tài)。工具箱  ·單邊上升市的再現(xiàn)及其對(duì)策 李志林【 發(fā)布:風(fēng)語(yǔ)(臨時(shí))  2000-08-14 17:46 ?多彩總匯   瀏覽/回復(fù):43/0】        ●華東師大與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展研究所 李志林(忠言)博士?    當(dāng)我看到自7月26日滬市首次登2000點(diǎn)之后呈現(xiàn)的單邊上升市,便不由想起30年前的電影《閃閃的紅星》中令人印象深刻的“胡漢三又回來(lái)了”的對(duì)白,不免對(duì)盤(pán)面多生了幾分警覺(jué)。尤其是1997年2月-5月,885-1510點(diǎn)連續(xù)14根周陽(yáng)、80多個(gè)交易日的那段單邊上升市,似乎又“回來(lái)了”。?    一、主力為什么要做單邊上升市?    為什么主力會(huì)從原先做的震蕩市改為做單邊上升市??    第一,只爭(zhēng)朝夕。從5月29日首次站在1900點(diǎn)之后,整整用了2個(gè)月時(shí)間,將流通市值換手一遍,至7月26日爬上2000點(diǎn),總共只漲了100點(diǎn)。這時(shí)候的市場(chǎng)平均持股成本始終與持股成本拉不開(kāi)距離,代價(jià)太大,效率太低。不僅絕大多數(shù)投資者不賺錢(qián),而且主力也不賺錢(qián)。如果2000點(diǎn)-2100點(diǎn)仍然是用這種方式從7月底做到9月底,時(shí)間不允許。因?yàn)?,在第四季度用股票抵押貸款的券商將面臨還貸壓力,4-6月戰(zhàn)略投資者配售的新股將出籠,國(guó)有股減持將著手進(jìn)行,二板市場(chǎng)開(kāi)張將緊鑼密鼓。所以,目前倉(cāng)位甚重的主力必須在第三季度結(jié)束前做足行情,否則,相當(dāng)多的機(jī)構(gòu)有可能在年底被套牢或粘牢。于是,人們可以看到,近期主力用單邊上升市加速行情,從2000點(diǎn)-2067點(diǎn)只用了12個(gè)交易日,估計(jì),2000-2100點(diǎn)只須1個(gè)月就足夠了。?    第二,事半功倍。由于現(xiàn)今越來(lái)越多的投資者掌握了追跌殺漲的技巧,主力做震蕩市越來(lái)越困難。你急拉,投資者非但不追漲,反而殺漲;你急跌,投資者非但不殺跌,反而追跌;你再拉,投資者就獲利了結(jié),弄得主力左右為難,籌碼越吃越多,成本越來(lái)越高。因此,唯有做單邊上升市,主力才能事半功倍,掌握主動(dòng)權(quán)。因?yàn)椋海?)每天只漲跌幾點(diǎn),出不了交易手續(xù)費(fèi),持倉(cāng)者便鎖籌惜售,減輕了大盤(pán)上行壓力。(2)每天創(chuàng)出新高,但只漲幾點(diǎn),給空倉(cāng)者進(jìn)場(chǎng)的機(jī)會(huì)。(3)指數(shù)天天上漲,漲多跌少,迫使做空者翻多,或做差價(jià)。(4)市場(chǎng)平均持股成本拾級(jí)提高,有助于增強(qiáng)市場(chǎng)的穩(wěn)定性。(5)使市場(chǎng)跟風(fēng)者如冷水中被加溫的“青蛙”,適應(yīng)高指數(shù),忘卻風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。(6)靠冷門(mén)股、落后于大盤(pán)漲幅的個(gè)股的加速發(fā)力上漲,推動(dòng)指數(shù)不斷創(chuàng)新高,有利于掩護(hù)主力在提前炒高的個(gè)股中悄悄出貨。(7)指數(shù)穩(wěn)中有漲,漲幅有限,無(wú)過(guò)度投機(jī)之嫌,不易引起政策利空。(8)單邊上升的漂亮圖型,很容易引發(fā)人們對(duì)行情高點(diǎn)的憧憬,增強(qiáng)市場(chǎng)的做多意識(shí),尤其是吸引買(mǎi)漲不買(mǎi)跌的新股民入市。(9)單邊上升市無(wú)須放巨量,可麻痹市場(chǎng)對(duì)頭部的警惕性。?    第三,用足政策。單邊上升市一經(jīng)形成,容易在主力之間達(dá)成共識(shí),故具有極大的市場(chǎng)慣性,一般性利空很難打壓下來(lái)。如1997年后2-5月的單邊上升市中,查券商違規(guī)、查透支、宣布300億擴(kuò)容額度,增加150億擴(kuò)容額度等21道黃牌警告都無(wú)濟(jì)于事。最終,是下了三類(lèi)企業(yè)、上市公司限一個(gè)月平倉(cāng)的政策重令,才有效抑制了單邊上升市。而在今年的大牛市中,擴(kuò)容不構(gòu)成利空,轉(zhuǎn)配股上市無(wú)礙大市,國(guó)有股減持也找到了良策,反倒是利好政策不斷;財(cái)務(wù)公司和金融租賃公司可以入市、社?;鹂梢匀胧?、中外合作基金成立,首家開(kāi)放式基金將于8月20日調(diào)試完畢、資產(chǎn)重組公司可放寬配股和增發(fā)新股的時(shí)限……中國(guó)股市歷史上力度罕見(jiàn)的利好政策紛紛出臺(tái),這就為主力用足政策,做單邊上升市、并盡情發(fā)揮,創(chuàng)造了極為難得的條件和機(jī)遇。那些提前炒高、獲利豐厚、急欲兌現(xiàn)的個(gè)股主力,怎能不利用單邊上升市拉高出貨?那些長(zhǎng)期臥底、吸飽籌碼的個(gè)股主力,怎能不利用單邊上升市而后發(fā)制人,橫空出世??    記得7月初我在《下半年股市的大局觀》一文中談到,“下半年行情重頭戲在7、8兩月,主力為了自身利益,必然會(huì)做足行情,并會(huì)有利好政策配合。”眼前發(fā)生的單邊上升市,似乎正印證了這一預(yù)言。?    二、如何應(yīng)對(duì)單邊上升市??    拙作《走近贏家》中,專(zhuān)有一節(jié)論述單邊上升市,并以為,應(yīng)對(duì)單邊上升市比單邊下跌市相對(duì)容易。值此,就當(dāng)前的市況,談一點(diǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)單邊上升市的策略。?    1、對(duì)于今年大盤(pán)指數(shù)的高點(diǎn),應(yīng)有恰當(dāng)?shù)脑u(píng)估,不能因單邊上升和輿論火爆而隨意調(diào)高期望值。一般而言,將去年的1756最高點(diǎn)乘以120%,是比較切合實(shí)際的,至多再慣性沖高5%,足矣。?    2、以平常心對(duì)待自己的今年收益。若年初制定的贏利目標(biāo)是30%,且已實(shí)現(xiàn),就可逐步兌現(xiàn);若目標(biāo)是50%,即與大盤(pán)漲幅相當(dāng),且已實(shí)現(xiàn),亦應(yīng)理所當(dāng)然地了結(jié);若你的收益已超過(guò)了大盤(pán)漲幅,更應(yīng)盡快把勝利成果拿到手。?    3、警惕大盤(pán)靠拉指數(shù)股改變角度,加速放巨量上揚(yáng)。若第二天前半小時(shí)上漲時(shí)成交量超不過(guò)前日巨量的1/8,或下跌時(shí)成交量超過(guò)前日的1/8,或指標(biāo)在高位連續(xù)純化、乖離率過(guò)大、市場(chǎng)狂熱口號(hào)滿(mǎn)天飛,高臺(tái)跳水的個(gè)股增多,指數(shù)漲,但跌的個(gè)股經(jīng)常比漲的多,便是調(diào)整信號(hào),應(yīng)盡可能減磅。?    4、拒斥放量筑頭部的個(gè)股。對(duì)于上半年超過(guò)大盤(pán)漲幅,甚至漲1-2倍的415只股票,以及已明顯放量筑頭回落的個(gè)股,原則上應(yīng)加以拒斥。哪怕有人拼命推薦,也不搶反彈,不做差價(jià),并利用反彈堅(jiān)決派發(fā),謹(jǐn)防主力利用大盤(pán)單邊上升時(shí)在這類(lèi)個(gè)股中壓低出貨或跳水出貨。這樣,主力就無(wú)計(jì)可施,找不到接盤(pán)者,只能被迫延長(zhǎng)行情。?    5、關(guān)注至今落后于大盤(pán)漲幅、于底部平臺(tái)向上突破的個(gè)股,這往往是后入市主力的“杰作”:即在大盤(pán)上漲700多點(diǎn)的情況下,至今仍將它們壓在1500-1600點(diǎn)的水平上。這些冷門(mén)股便是大盤(pán)走單邊上升市的推動(dòng)者,是牛市輪漲的砝碼。其中,爆出黑馬的概率較大。在單邊上升市中,可考慮將高位強(qiáng)勢(shì)股換成這類(lèi)低位弱勢(shì)股(盤(pán)子是盡可能小些),少做差價(jià),以靜制動(dòng),直至拉至高位放巨量,媒介一致推薦,利好不斷,才果斷了結(jié)。?    6、對(duì)重大利好兌現(xiàn),多一點(diǎn)反向思維。諸如宣布社?;?、中外合作基金、開(kāi)放式基金實(shí)施入市,主力往往會(huì)見(jiàn)利好大肆出貨。一是因?yàn)榇藭r(shí)人氣最旺,接盤(pán)最多。二是因?yàn)檫@類(lèi)資金也是為利而來(lái),不可能充當(dāng)解放軍,而只能充當(dāng)深幅調(diào)整后的護(hù)盤(pán)者和獲利者。故對(duì)這類(lèi)利好兌現(xiàn)后的效應(yīng),不能估計(jì)過(guò)高。?    我以為,在上述7點(diǎn)中,最重要的是平常心。可以說(shuō),對(duì)付單邊上升市,最有效的武器也就是平常心。工具箱  ·近期操盤(pán)心得。【 發(fā)布:jinze  2000-08-15 00:09 ?多彩總匯   瀏覽/回復(fù):104/0】  在形態(tài)看好時(shí)賣(mài)出,形態(tài)看空時(shí)買(mǎi)進(jìn)。特別是前期放量后縮量回調(diào)的股票最值得關(guān)注?! 」ぞ呦洹 ?}
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